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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014
EUR/USD - ...... Comments by ECB Council member Christian Noyer who is speaking at the Paris EUROPLACE International Financial Forum in Tokyo said, quote:
'when policy rates go to zero, central banks must resort to unconventional measures to avoid involuntary policy tightening;
very low inflation can aggravate situation because this increases real interest rates;
monetary policy must aim at influencing both nominal rates and inflation expectations;
ECB's purchases of covered bonds, abs will ease bank funding conditions, bring down risk premiums on private assets;
ECB's action on nominal interest rates has been strong and efficient; governing council has unanimously stated commitment to using additional unconventional policy within its mandate if needed to fight low inflation;
governing council made unanimous commitment to protect against misperception ECB is more tolerant of low inflation;
governing council statement on balance sheet size is not a firm commitment but an expectation;
governing council statement on balance sheet is clear indication further policy action will not be limited by quantitative restraints;
communication about balance sheet size can help bring inflation expectations more in line with ECB's definition of price stability;
Japan benefits from high wage flexibility, which helps competitiveness but may increase vulnerability to deflation;
in Europe, nominal wages are rigid and keep growing, which provides protection against deflation risk.'
AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Nov 2014 23:59GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.5685
55 HR EMA
1.5676
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
56
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild downside bias
Resistance
1.5790 - Nov 07 low
1.5768 - 50% r of 1.5945-1.5590
1.5737 - Last Mon's n Thur's high
Support
1.5672 - Y'day's NY hourly sup
1.5626 - Last Fri's low
1.5590 - Last Wed's fresh 14-mth low
. GBP/USD - 1.5695 ... Despite opening lower to 1.5633 in New Zealand on Mon, the British pound rebounded to 1.5673 at European open, however, price briefly retreated to 1.5629 in tandem with eur/usd before rising to 1.5694 in NY morning. Cable later climbed to session high of 1.5715 b4 easing.
. Y'day's strg rebound fm 1.5630 to 1.5715 suggests 'choppy' trading abv last Wed's 14-month trough of 1.5590 wud continue, however, as long as res at 1.5737 (last Mon's n Thur's high) holds, downside bias remains for MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 to resume after consolidation, yield re-test of 1.5590 sup later, however, break needed to extend weakness to 1.5560, then 1.5518 (being 50% & 61.8% proj. respectively of 1.5945-1.5590 measured fm 1.5737), however, a daily technical indicators wud display 'bullish convergences' on such move, reckon 1.5346 wud contain weakness, this is the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of entire LT rise fm 1.3500 (2009 multi-decade low) to 1.7192.
. Today, we're cautiously holding a short position in anticipation of a retreat to 1.5630. On the upside, a daily close abv 1.5737 wud risk stronger retracement to 1.5818 (38.2% r of 1.6186-1.5590) b4 prospect of another decline.
AceTraderFx Nov 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Nov 2014 02:00GMT
USD/JPY-....... Dlr weakened vs the Japanese yen on Tuesday after volatile sessions. Although price has rebounded after early sell off from 118.57 to 117.70 in Asia due to BoJ meeting minutes n comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who voiced concerns over the impact of the weaker yen on the economy, price briefly jumped to 118.30 in NY morning after upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (prelim.).
Later, dlr retreated to 117.72 in NY afternoon following the release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and then further to 117.67 in Wednesday's Tokyo morning.
Although intra-day's weakness in Asia suggests choppy trading with mild downside bias remains, sharp fall below 117.36 (Fri's reaction low from last Thursday's fresh 7-year peak at 118.98) is not envisaged as investors are awaiting the release of a slew of U.S. economic reports in NY morning.
At present, offers are noted at 118.00-10 and then 118.25/30 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 118.60.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.40-30 and around 117.10 with stops located just below 117.00.
Wednesday will see the release of German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits.
AceTraderFx Nov 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Nov 2014
EUR/USD - ....... This morning the single currency pared early losses as release of disappointing U.S. consumer confidence in NY morning following upbeat U.S. Q3 GDP (2nd reading) triggered broad-based selling in greenback. Euro rebounded strongly after a brief dip to 1.2402 and then rallied to session highs of 1.2486 b4 retreating to 1.2459 on profit-taking.
As euro has maintained a biddish tone in Asian morning, suggesting buying euro on dips for marginal gain above 1.2500 level is recommended, however, daily outlook remains consolidative and last week's peak at 1.2602 should remain intact today.
Although eco. data from EU countries due out in European morning may have little impact on euro, investors are unlikely to enter large position ahead of the release of a slew of U.S. data in NY morning.
At present this morning, bids was placed at 1.2460/55 and then 1.2440-30 with stops emerging below 1.2410, whilst offers from various accounts are located at 1.2490-00 and near 1.2520 with a mixture of offers and stops emerging above 1.2550.
Last night despite euro's brief drop to 1.2403 in NY morning after the release of robust U.S. GDP data, the single currency subsequently rebounded on dlr's broad-based weakness after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence.
Euro then jumped to as high as 1.2486 before easing. Bids were located at 1.2460-50 and more at 1.2430. On the upside, offers were tipped at 1.2485-90 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.2500 last night
AceTraderFx Nov 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Nov 2014
USD/JPY - ...... Earlier BoJ board member Sayuri Shirai who was speaking in a news conference after meeting with business leaders in Hiroshima (West Japan) said, quote:
'BoJ deployed maximum scale of easing it can deliver on Oct. 31, now need to scrutinise data for time being;
weak Q3 GDP data made me convinced BoJ eased at most appropriate timing on Oct. 31.'
'Japan CPI may slip below 1% for several months, including in Oct;
inflation has slowed more than expected, some indicators also showed fall in inflation expectations;
hard to end deflation once economy slips into it;
BoJ acted last month as central banks cannot leave unattended falls in prices, inflation expectations;
Q3 GDP data showed recovery in consumption slower than expected;
there's a chance Japan's economic growth may turn negative in fiscal 2014 but data since Sept has brightened;
no change in BoJ's stance it won't ease policy incrementally;
won't automatically ease monetary policy just because economy undershoots our expectations;
can't deploy such radical policy like QQE so many times, though only monetary policy can accelerate inflation to 2%;
BoJ's inflation target is a flexible one, not bound by rigid deadline.'
AceTraderFx Nov 27: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Nov 2014 02:36GMT
EUR/USD- ...... Euro strengthened against the dlr on Wednesday as despite a brief retreat from 1.2495 to 1.2444 in European morning after dovish comments from ECB's Constancio, the single currency rebounded due to dlr's broad-based weakness after release of a slew of weak U.S. economic data and rallied to 1.2532 in NY morning before retreating.
Yesterday's intra-day rally suggests euro would continue to move inside the near '3-week long' broad range of 1.2357-1.2602 and stronger gain toward 1.2565/75 is likely to be seen later today .
Bids are placed at 1.2490-80 and around 1.2470/65 with stops emerging below 1.2450, whilst offers are located at 1.2525/30 and then 1.2545/50 with stops located just above 1.2550.
Investors should pay attention to the release of German unemployment data at 08:55GMT, follow by euro zone economic sentiment reports at 10:00GMT. Street forecast for German unemployment rate to remain the same at 6.7% in November whilst unemployment change this month to be -4K compare to previous reading of -22K.
Last night ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Jazbec said that the European Central Bank's monetary policy alone cannot solved the euro zone's problems on its own and it needed to be complemented by other policies such as investment.
Thursdaywill see the release of New Zealand's trade balance, Australia's HIA new home sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Nationwide house prices, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Germn Gfk consumer sentiment, HICP and CPI.
AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Nov 2014 00:03GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9624
55 HR EMA
0.9640
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
40
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
0.9742 - Nov 07 fresh 1-year high
0.9698 - Tue's high
0.9666 - Y'day's high
Support
0.9595- Y'day's low
0.9554 - Last Thur's low
0.9530 - Last Thur's low
. USD/CHF- 0.9613... Dlr's intra-day choppy trading in Europe y'day later ended with subsequent losses. Despite staging a rebound fm 0.9622 to 0.9666 on sharp retreat in eur/usd in European morning, price quickly fell on broad-based weakness in the greenback, price later fell to 0.9595 after downbeat U.S. data.
. Looking at the bigger picture, despite Mon's higher open to 0.9731 in NZ, failure to re-test Nov's fresh 1-year peak at 0.9742 n y'day's sell off to 0.9595 has deferred our previous bullish prospect of a resumption of uptrend n further choppy trading below aforesaid peak is envisaged n weakness twd 0.9568 (80.9% r of 0.9530-0.9731) can't be ruled out, however, as long as 0.9530 (last Wed's reaction low fm 0.9742) holds, dlr's MT 3-legged up move fm Mar's 2-1/2 year bottom at 0.8698 wud resume n yield re-test of 0.9742 next week, abv wud extend gain twd 0.9772, being 61.8% projection of 0.9024-0.9690 measures fm 0.9690, how ever, as daily technical indicators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely n psychological res at 0.9800 shud hold.
. Today, we're standing aside initially n may sell dlr on intra-day recovery or buy on next decline in anticipation of a rebound.
AceTraderFx Nov 28: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Nov 2014 02:41GMT
USD/JPY- ....... The greenback jumped above 118.00 level to 118.28 against the yen in Tokyo morning on Friday in reaction to rebound in the Nikkei after plunge in oil prices Thur when OPEC kept oil output unchanged (WTI crude oil price was last seen down $5.09 or 6.91% to $68.60, below $70.0 the first time since May 2010) which would benefit the Japanese economy as importer of energy.
As dlr's strong rebound from yesterday's low at 117.24 n the subsequent move back above 118.00 suggest correction from last Thursday's 7-year peak at 118.98 has ended there, buying dlr on dips is favoured as dlr may head towards 118.98 next week.
At present, bids are noted at 118.00-117.90 and around 117.70 with mixture of bids and stops located just below 117.50.
On the upside, offers are placed at 118.30-40 and then 118.50 with stops emerging further out 118.70.
Yesterday despite early brief dropped to an intra-day low of 117.25 in European morning due to the weakness in Nikkei-225 index which closed down by 135 points to 17249, The pair ratcheted higher on active short-covering anf rebounded to 117.79.
Fridaywill see the release of Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, prelimary industrial output, IP forecast, retails sales, New Zealand's NBNZ business outlook U.S. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan's construction orders, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, EU inflation and unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and producer prices.
AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 28 Nov 2014 00:14GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2475
55 HR EMA
1.2477
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
33
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.2575 - Last Fri's high
1.2532 - Wed's high
1.2499 - Y'day's N. American high
Support
1.2444 - Wed's low
1.2402 - Tue's low
1.2357 - Nov 07 26-month low
. EUR/USD- 1.2456 ... Despite euro's brief bounce to 1.2524 in European morning on Thur, offers below Wed's 1.2532 checked intra-day gain n traders sold euro broadly after weak Spanish inflation data. Euro later ratcheted higher back to 1.2499 in quiet N. American session on short covering b4 coming off.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although Wed's brief rally to 1.2532 suggests the decline fm last Wed's high at 1.2602 has indeed formed a low at 1.2360 on Mon n further 'choppy' consolidation abv Nov's 26-month trough at 1.2357 wud continue, y'day's retreat suggests downside bias remains, below 1.2444 sup wud bring subsequent decline twd 1.2402, a daily close below this pivotal sup is needed to confirm the recovery is over n yield resumption of MT downtrend for re-test 1.2357/60, then 1.2311 next week. On the upside, only abv 1.2532 wud extend aforesaid rise twd 1.2568/75 res area, however, as broad outlook remains 'consolidative', daily res at 1.2602 shud cap upside n yield decline later.
. Today, euro's intra-day break of y'day's 1.2466 low suggests the single currency shud remain under pressure n decline to our daily downside target at 1.2415 (our daily position is holding short at 1.2490).
AceTraderFx Dec 1: Intra-Day News and Views (AUD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Dec 2014 01:46GMT
AUD/USD - 0.8430 ... Australian dollar nose-dived against U.S. dollar due to the sharp sell off in crude oil prices. Stops below 0.8480 were triggered in New Zealand morning today and price fall to 0.8444 and then to a fresh 4-year low at 0.8417 in Asian morning.
Crude oil prices fell $1.41 to 64.74 following last Friday's more than 8% sell off.
Offers are now tipped at 0.8450-60, 0.8480 and more at 0.8490/95.
On the downside, some bids are located at 0.8410-00 with stops seen below 0.8400.
This week will see the release of the following economic data:
New Zealand's Terms of Trade, Japan's Business Capex, China's NBS Manufacturing PMI, Japan's Manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC Mfg PMI Final, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Germany's Markit/BME Mfg PMI, eurozone Markit Mfg Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI, Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Lending, CAnada's RBC Mfg PMI, US Markit Mfg PMI Final and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday;
Australia's Building Approvals and Current Account Deficit, RBA rate decision and statement, UK Markit/CIPS Cons PMI, eurosone Producer Prices, US Redbook, ISM-New York Index and Construction Spending on Tuesday;
Australia's GDP, China's NBS Non-Mfg PMI and HSBC Services PMI, Swiss GDP, Germany's Markit Services PMI, eurozone Markit Services Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Serv PMI, eurozone Retail Sales, US ADP National Employment, Productivity Revised, Markit Comp Final PMI, ISM N-Mfg PMI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision and Statement, US Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday;
Australia's Retail Sales and Trade Balance, UK Halifax house prices, Swiss Industrial Orders, Bank of England rate decision, ECB rate decision, US Initial jobless claims, Canada's Ivey PMI on Thursday;
Japan's Leading Indicator, Germany's Industrial Orders, UK Consumer inflation expectations, eurozone revised GDP, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings, Canada's Unemployment Rate, Employment Change and Trade Balance, US Factory Orders and Durable Goods on Friday.