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AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 19 Dec 2014 00:06GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.5648
55 HR EMA
1.5654
Trend Hourly Chart
Nr term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
58
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.5738 - Wed's European high
1.5699 - Post-FOMC high Wed
1.5676 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5605 - Y'day's NY morning sup
1.5539 - Thur's fresh 14-month low
1.5500 - Pychological sup
. GBP/USD - 1.5667... Although cable tracked euro's intra-day move closely in Asia n early Europe on Thur n fell fm 1.5594 to 1.5551, buying interest abv Wed's fresh 14-month low at 1.5539 lifted price fm there n cable later rallied to 1.5666 after upbeat U.K. retail sales n then 1.5676 in NY b4 easing.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally after holding abv Wed's fresh 14-month trough at 1.5539 strongly suggests the MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has formed a temporary low there n as long as 1.5605 (y'day's NY low) holds, stronger gain twd 1.5691/99 (being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of 1.5785-1.5539 n post FOMC high respectively), abv there wud add credence to this view n further headway to 1.5738 (chart obj.) n then 1.5755 wud follow, however, as hourly oscillators wud be in o/bot territory on such a move, reckon 1.5755 (Wed's high) wud cap upside n yield strg retreat later.
. In view of abv analysis, buying cable on dips is cautiously favoured today. On the downside, only below 1.5539 wud revive early bearishness n
risk subsequent weakness twd 1.5500 (psychological sup) but 1.5463 (50% proj. of 1.6186-1.5541 measured fm 1.5785) shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx Dec 22: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2014 02:20GMT
EUR/USD - ........ The single currency remained under pressure in Asian morning today after last Friday's breach of 1.2247 (Dec 08 low) to 1.2220 due to the dovish comments from European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio who said in a magazine interview he expected the euro zone inflation rate to turn negative in the coming months but that if this was just a temporary phenomenon, he did not see a risk of deflation.
Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2270 whilst bids are located at 1.2220 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.
On Sunday, Greek PM Antonis Samaras urged lawmakers to elect a new president and offered the prospect of general elections by the end of next year once negotiations with international creditors are complete.
Speaking in an unscheduled television address on Sunday, he said Greece had a duty to finish negotiations with the European Union and the IMF.
The unexpected announcement comes 2 days ahead of the 2nd round of voting in parliament to elect a new president n follows a disappointing result for the goverment't in the 1st round last week when it won less support than expected.
If parliament does not elect a president by the 3rd and final round of voting on Dec. 29, a snap general election would have to be held by early Feb., putting talks on ending Greece's international bailout programme at risk.
This week will see the release of:
New Zealand's Westpac consumer survey, Japan's BoJ Monthly Economic Survey, Germany's Import Price Index, Italy's Trade Balance, Eurozone's U.S.'s Existing Home Sales on Monday.
New Zealand's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China's CB Leading Economic Index, France's GDP, Producer Prices, Italy's Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending on Tuesday.
Australia's CB Leading Indicator, Switzerland's KOF Leading Indicator; U.S. Initial Jobless Claims on Wednesday.
Japan's BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. New Zealand, Australia, China, Eurozone countries and North America are on Christmas Holiday on Thursday.
New Zealand, Australia, Italy, Germany, Canada are on Boxing day holiday on Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 22: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 21 Dec 2014 23:09GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
119.38
55 HR EMA
118.95
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
61
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
120.20 - Dec 08 low
119.93 - Dec 10 high
119.66 - Intra-day high (NZ)
Support
119.04 - Hourly chart
118.84 - Fri's NY low
118.26 - Y'day's European sup
. USD/JPY - 119.54 ... Dlr swung fm loss to gain in last week's roller-coaster session. Price met renewed selling at 119.06 on Mon n penetrated 117.45 sup due to broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion, buying interest at 115.57 quickly lifted dlr n the pair later rallied back to as high as 119.62 on Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's aforesaid strg rebound suggests correction fm Dec's fresh 7-year peak at 121.85 has ended there n consolidation with upside bias is envisaged in this holiday-shortened X'mas week, a daily close abv 120.20 (previous sup, now res) wud encourage for further headway twd pivotal res at 121.00, break wud bring re-test of 121.85, then twd 123.89 later this month or in Jan 2015, this is 50% proj. of MT intermediate rise fm 105.20-121.85 measured fm 115.57. Having said that, as daily technical indicators wud display prominent 'bearish divergences' on such move, reckon 125.86 (61.8% proj. fm 115.57) wud remain intact. On the downside, below 117.76 wud prolong choppy consolidation n may risk weakness to 116.25, then twd 115.57.
. Today, as long as 118.84 sup holds, up move fm 115.57 wud head twd 119.90/00, 'bearish divergences' on hourly indicators wud cap dlr at 120.20.
AceTraderFx Dec 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2014 09:31GMT
GBP/USD- ..... Although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained briefly to session high at 1.5665 at European open, cable pared its gains and retreated sharply to 1.5618 in European morning, due partly to cross-selling of sterling especially vs euro.
Offers are now seen at 1.5650/60 and more above at 1.5670/80 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5590/00.
Since there is no eco. data out from UK today, price is expected to trade in choppy fashion till NY open.
Bank of England's Weale says hearing of pay freezes much more rarely from UK businesses.
This morning the British pound move narrowly in subdued Asian trading as some traders have closed their books in this holiday-abbreviated week. Despite Friday's rebound after intra-day retreat from 1.5682 to 1.5605 (NY low), anticipated renewed weakness in the eur/usd shud limit intra-day gain.
As no U.K. eco. data are due out today, cable is expected to track intra-day swings in the euro.
Order book was very thin on this Monday morning
AceTraderFx Dec 23: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2014 02:16GMT
EUR/USD - ....... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.2272 on Monday and fell to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2217 new New York close due to dollar's broad-based strength on renewed risk appetite following the rise in global stock markets.
Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2265-70.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.2220-15 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.
Euro is expected to remain under pressure for the rest of this year on speculation the European Central Bank will add stimulus next year as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates.
In other news, S&P said on Monday that it still sees the first rate hike in June 2015, and says the Fed Funds rate can go as high as 1.25% by 2015 end. This corresponds with the Fed's own projection which had the range of Fed Funds between 1.000 and 1.25% (or 1.125% for the average of the low to high range).
Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China's CB Leading Economic Index, France's GDP, Producer Prices, Italy's Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending.
AceTraderFx Dec 23: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 22 Dec 2014 23:49GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2242
55 HR EMA
1.2286
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
45
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 MT decline resumes
Resistance
1.2347 - 50% r of 1.2474-1.2220
1.2302 - Last Fri's high
1.2272 - Y'day's high
Support
1.2216 - 61.8% proj. of 1.2474-1.2277 fm 1.2358
1.2174 - 61.8% proj. of 1.2888-1.2247 fm 1.2570
1.2146 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3700-1.2500 fm 1.2888
. EUR/USD - 1.2223... Euro gained a respite on Mon after failure to breach last Fri's fresh 27-mth trough at 1.2220. Price ratcheted higher fm NZ's low at 1.2220 in Asia n then climbed to 1.2272 in European morning. Later, euro briefly fell to 1.2250 in NY morning n fell to a session low at 1.2217 near NY close.
. Looking at the daily chart, as previously mentioned, euro's resumption of MT downtrend fm 2014 high at 1.3995 (May) to 1.2220 last Fri suggests initial downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.2146, this is 61.8% proj. of intermediate downtrend fm 1.3700 to 1.2500 measured fm 1.2888. Having said that, as daily technical indicators' readings wud display prominent bullish convergences on such a move, reckon 'psychological' sup at 1.2000 wud remain intact this month n early Jan 2015 n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place later. On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.2386 (prev. hourly sup, now res) wud signal a low is in place, then risk a correction twd 1.2570.
. Today, as long as 1.2272 res holds, downside bias remains for MT down-trend to extend to 1.2200 n 1.2174 (61.8% proj. of 1.2888-1.2247 fm 1.2570) but loss of momentum wud limit fall to 1.2146.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations Major -USD/JPY
Update Time: 24 Dec 2014 02:10 GMT
DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY
Dlr's firmness after yesterday's rally to 120.80 suggests the correction from December's 7-year peak at 121.85 has indeed ended at 115.57 last Wednesday and above 121.00 would extend gain to 121.34, however, aforesaid peak at 121.85 should hold on 1st testing.
Raise long entry for 121.30 and only a daily close below 120.05 dampens bullishness on dlr, 119.66.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Dec 2014 02:19GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite dlr's brief rise to 120.83 in Australian morning due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index following yesterday's rally in global stock markets.
The greenback retreated to as low as 120.29/30 on active profit-taking. Offers are now reported at 120.60-65 and more at 120.80.
On the downside, some bids are located at 120.30 and 120.20-10.
Japan was preparing Wednesday to name Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to his next term in office following his victory in a December 14 snap election that could give him another four years to pursue his agenda of restoring Japan's economic and security stature.
The parliament was to convene in the afternoon to elect Abe as prime minister.
Abe is due to then appoint a new cabinet. Japanese media reported that the cabinet ministers will remain the same apart from the defense minister, Akinori Eto.
Japanese local media said Gen Nakatani was viewed as the likely replacement for Eto. Nakatani served as defense minister under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and supports a stronger role for Japan's military, which is constrained by the country's commitment to pacifism under the constitution drafted by the American occupation forces following Japan's defeat in World War II.
Wednesday will see the release of Australia's CB Leading Indicator, Switzerland's KOF Leading Indicator; U.S. Initial Jobless Claims.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Dec 2014 00:00GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9862
55 HR EMA
0.9839
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
65
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT uptrend
Resistance
1.0000 - Psychological lvl
0.9972 - 2012 peak
0.9924 - 80.9% proj. 0.9360-0.9818 fm 0.9554
Support
0.9805 - Mon's low
0.9785 - Last Fri's low
0.9722 - Last Thur's low
. USD/CHF - 0.9876 ... Although the greenback remained under pressure initially y'day n weakened to session low at 0.9826 in early European morning, price pared its losses n gained ahead of NY open. Intra-day rise accelerated n the pair rose to fresh 2-year peak at 0.9886 on upbeat U.S. GDP data.
. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's aforesaid resumption of MT uptrend fm 2014 near 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 (Mar) to 0.9886 signals further gain to 0.9924 (being 80.9% projection of rise fm 0.9360 to 0.9818 measured fm 0.9554) wud be seen after initial consolidation. Abv 0.9924 wud extend twds 2012 peak at 0.9972, however, as daily oscillators' readings wud display prominent 'bearish divergences' on such move, sharp gain beyond there is unlikely to be seen this week n reckon psychological res at 1.0000 shud remain intact n yield a much-needed correction later. On the downside, only below 0.9785 (Mon's low) wud indicate a temp. top has been made n risk retracement twds 0.9722.
. Today, as current price is trading abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting buying dlr on dips is still the way to go. Only below 0.9805 wud abort intra-day bullishness n risk stronger weakness twds 0.9785.
AceTraderFx Dec 29: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
29 Dec 2014 01:08GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Euro came under initial selling pressure ahead of Asian open as short-term specs sold the single currency on political woes in Greece following w/end comments by Greek PM Samaras and German FinMin Schaeuble.
Reuters reported Greek PM Antonis Samaras faces a vote in parliament later toay that will decide whether the country goes to snap elections that could bring the leftwing Syriza party to power n derail an international bailout. Voting is due to start at midday (10:00 GMT), with the result likely around an hour later.
Reuters also reported Samaras warned lawmakers on Saturday against the snap election that will be called if he loses a key presidential vote in parliament on Monday, but said he was confident of winning if Greeks did go to the polls.
Speaking before Monday's decisive round in the election of a successor to head of state Karolos Papoulias, Samaras said a general election, which must be held if a new president cannot be appointed, was against the national interest.
"The Greek people do not want early elections," he told state television in an interview. "I have done and I am doing everything to ensure a president is elected and snap elections are averted," Samaras said.
His comment came on the same day German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that any Greek gov't would have to respect commitments already made by Athens.
More w/end news worth noting which also contributed to euro's initial weakness ahead of Asian open Monday. Reuters reported German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble expressed his reservations against the ECB launching a bond buying stimulus program and praised Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann's arguments against such moves.
In an interview with Bild newspaper on Sat, Schaeuble repeated his view that structural reforms are needed in some of the struggling euro zone countries.
"The ECB can make its decisions independently," Schaeuble said. "But cheap money should not be allowed to dent the reform zeal in some countries. There is no alternative to structural reforms - if things are going to improve again."
Schaeuble, when asked whether Weidmann has enough clout in the ECB, said: "Germany's voice has weight...But even if we're the strongest economy, Germany can't always get its way. At the end of the day a compromise is what's needed. But the arguments from Jens Weidmann are strong and are listened to in the ECB."
He added Chancellor Angela Merkel and he have an open dialogue with Draghi. "The Chancellor n me, the finance minister, are constantly having intensive discussions with Mario Draghi."