Intraday trading signal - page 127
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AceTraderFx Oct 30: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 30 Oct 2014 00:04GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
108.46
55 HR EMA
108.21
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
79
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent up move
Resistance
109.91 - Oct's 4
109.23 - Oct's 7 high
108.96 - Y'day's high
Support
108.37 - Mon's high
107.95 - Y'day's low
107.61 - Mon's low
. USD/JPY - 108.86 ... Despite dlr's brief retreat to 107.95 in Europe on Wed, the greenback jumped after FOMC rate decision n ended its 6-year long QE program. The pair rallied to as high as 108.96 on dlr's broad-based strength.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's resumption of upmove fm Oct's low at 105.20 confirms early corrective fall fm Oct's 6-year peak at 110.09 has ended there n as hourly indicators are rising n current price is trading well abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 109.23 n then twds 109.48 res, however, hourly oscillators' readings wud be in o/bot territory, this shud prevent strg gain today n res area at 109.91-110.09 shud hold on 1st testing n yield a much-needed retreat later. Looking ahead, a daily close abv 110.09 res wud confirm the LT uptrend fm record low at 75.32 (Oct 2011) has once again resumed n yield further gain to 110.50 (being 61.8% proj. of 101.51-110.09 measured fm 105.20).
. Today, buying dlr again on dips is still the way to go. On the downside, only a breach of y'day's low at 107.95 wud signal a temporary top is made n risk stronger pullback to 107.61 sup.
AceTraderFx Oct 31: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 2014 00:08GMT
USD/JPY - .......Latest news: 'Japan government to approve GPIF reallocation on Friday, raising Japan equity target to 25% from the current target of 12%, two government sources said.'
Japan's economy minister Amari said that :
"Abe's cabinet is ready to take steps as needed, when asked about chance of compiling stimulus measures;
will consult with Abe whether stimulus package is needed, after scrutinising Jul-Sep data;
no decision yet on whether to complete stimulus package, also on size of any package."
Last night U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 3-1/2 week high of 109.36 versus the Japanese yen on renewed risk appetites due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index futures n U.S. stock markets.
Dow Jones index now rose by 221 point or 1.3% to 17196. Bids was located at 109.20-10 and more at 109.00. On the upside, some offers were tipped at 109.40 and 109.60.
Fridaywill see the release of Japan's all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia's PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada's GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Oct 31: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 31 Oct 2014 00:40GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.6006
55 HR EMA
1.6039
Trend Hourly Chart
Dow
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
43
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidatin b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.6103 - Y'day's NY morning low
1.6089 - Tue's low
1.6038 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5950 - Y'day's low
1.5875 - Oct 15 low
1.5820 - 61.8% proj. of 1.7192-1.6052 fm 1.6525
. GBP/USD - 1.5993..Cable weakened to 1.5967 in Asia on Thur n then 1.5762 in Europe on Thur following Wed's FOMC selloff. Despite a minor bounce to .6009, price later briefly tumbled to session lows of 1.5950 after release of robust U.S. GDP but short-covering lifted price to 1.6038 b4 easing.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, Wed's sharp sell off to 1.6003 n then 1.5950 Thur suggests the correction fm Oct's 11-month low at 1.5875 has ended earlier at 1.6186 last Tue n consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.5940/50 sup area (Oct 16 n y'day's low respectively), a daily close below there wud signal MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has once again resumed n yield re-test of Oct's 11-month low at 1.5875 next week. Looking ahead, below 1.5875 wud send cable lower to 1.5820, this is 50% proj. of the entire fall fm 1.7192-1.6052 measured fm 1.6525. Therefore, selling cable on recovery is the way to go n only abv 1.6088/89 (prev. sup, now res) wud dampen present bearish scenario on cable.
. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of marginal fall but 'bullish convergences' on hourly indicators wud keep cable abv 1.5900/10.
AceTraderFx Oct 31: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 111.30
Update Time: 31 Oct 2014 08:19 GMT
Dollar's intra-day rally above October's peak at 110.09 to a fresh near 7-year high of 111.53 in European morning after BoJ's surprise easing confirms long-term uptrend has resumed and further gain to projected obj. at 111.98 is likely after consolidation, however, o/bot condition should prevent sharp move beyond there today and risk has increased for a much-needed retreat later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 110.09 (previous resistance) would signal a top has been made and yield correction towards 109.47.
AceTraderFx Nov 3: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Nov 2014 02:39GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares initial gain after rising to a fresh near 7-year peak of 113.00/01. The euphoria of broad-based yen-selling continued at Monday's open after Friday's close near the day's high of 112.48 together with the closing of the Dow & S&P 500 at their records highs (Nikkei futures were up 495 points on Fri) boosted risk sentiment even though markets are closed in Japan for Culture Day holiday.
Although dlr opened near said Friday's NY close in NZ, st specs sold the yen broadly, sending dlr to 113.00/01 in Australia, however, price eased to 112.65 on lack of follow-through buying.
Initial bids are reported at 112.50-40 with stops below there, however, more buying interest is noted above 112.00.
On the upside, offers are touted at 112.90/00 with some stops above there. As the w/end release of downbeat China official mfg PMI plus today's release of weaker-than-expected China official non-mfg PMI have not tempered risk sentiment in the yen, buy dlr on dips is the way to go.
The coming week will see the release of following economic data:
Australian building approvals, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI n HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, U.S Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing employment index and manufacturing PMI on Monday;
Australia's trade balance and retail sales, RBA interest rate decision and statement, U.K. Halifax house price, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Redbook, ISM New York index, factory orders, durable goods on Tuesday;
New Zealand's HLFS unemployment rate, job growth and labour cost index, China's HSBC services PMI, Swiss CPI, German Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. ADP National employment, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and employment index on Wednesday;
Australia's unemployment rate and employment change, Japan's leading indicator, Swiss consumer confidence, Germany's industrial orders, U.K. industrial output and manufacturing output, BOE interest rate decision, ECB rate decision, Canada's building permits, U.S. labor costs and productivity and Canada's Ivey PMI on Thursday;
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany's imports, exports and trade balance, Swiss retail sales, U.K. goods trade balance and average earnings, Canada's unemployment and employment change, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, private payrolls, government payrolls and consumer credit on Friday.
AceTraderFx Nov 3: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 02 Nov 2014 23:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
111.85
55 HR EMA
110.55
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
O/bot
13 HR RSI
80
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of uptrend
Resistance
113.54 - 50% proj. of 109.13-112.47 fm 111.89
113.16 - 2.618 times ext. of 106.25-108.37 fm 107.61
113.01 - Intra-day fresh high in NZ/AUS
Support
112.47 - Fri's high, now sup
111.89 - Reaction low fm 112.47
111.46 - Minor sup fm hourly chart
. USD/JPY - 112.87... The greenback maintained a steady tone initially last week as steady gains in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment of yen selling. Dlr jumped on Fri when BoJ surprised the market with its aggressive stimulus measures, price jumped abv Oct's 110.09 high to a near 7-year peak of 112.47 in NY.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, Fri's rally to 112.47 confirms the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has once again resumed n price is en route to 114.92, this is 50% proj. of intermediate rise of 77.13-105.45 measured fm 100.76, however, as daily technical indicators have displayed 'bearish divergences' reckon 115.83, being 50% proj. of the entire said uptrend fm 75.32-105.45 measured fm 100.76, wud cap upside n yield correction later. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is recommended but profit shud be taken on subsequent rise. On the downside, below 110.09 (previous res, now sup) anytime wud signal temporary is in place n risk stronger retracement to 108.80/90.
. Today, dlr gapped higher to a fresh near 7-year peak of 113.01 in NZ/AUS , however, as hourly indicators' readings are in o/bot territory, reckon 113.54 wud cap upside. Look to buy on dips as sup at 11.89 shud hold fm here.
AceTraderFx Nov 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Nov 2014
GBP/USD - ..... Despite cable's fall to a fresh 2-week low at 1.5926 in Asia, price recovered in tandem with euro and then climbed back to 1.5983 in European morning.
Offers are touted at 1.6000-10 and around 1.6030 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above Friday's high of 1.6038.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5940-30 and then 1.5915/10 with demand from real money accounts is placed around 1.5900.
Investors are now awaiting the release of U.K. Markit/CIPS mfg PMI.
This morning Cable fell in tandem with euro shortly after Asian open as dlr continued to strengthen against other ccys after Friday's BoJ's surprise easing. The pound briefly tanked below Fri's 2-week low of 1.5942 to 1.5928 b4 short-covering lifted price to 1.5971 n then 1.5975.
The intra-day rebound fm 1.5928 suggests a temporary low has been made n therefore, buying cable on dips for st trade was recommended, however, position traders can looked to sell cable on intra-day rise as dlr's recent broad-based firmness led by usd/jpy suggests a test of Oct's 11-month trough at 1.5875 wud be seen later this week. Offers was noted at 1.6000-10 n then 1.6025/30 with mixture of offers n stops emerging just abv Fri's high of 1.6038.
On the downside, demand from real money accounts was placed around 1.5900 with buying interest from various accounts located further out at 1.5850-40.
On the data front, investors shud pay attention to the U.K. Markit/CIPS mfg PMI at 09:30GMT. The PMI has been losing ground in the 2nd half of 2014, n slipped to 51.6 points last month. Market forecasts the reading to weaken further to 51.2 in Oct.
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY AUS/USD) & data to be released
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Nov 2014 01:22GMT
AUS/USD - ....... Australia's official statistician released revised figures for employment showed that labour market was weaker than first report over August and September.
Australian September employment revised to -23.7K, from -29.7K, whilst Australian September unemployment rate revised to 6.2% vs 6.1% in August.
04 Nov 2014 00:28GMT
USD/JPY - ...... quoting comments from Japan EcoMin Amari when asked about weak yen, he said 'yen will no doubt move in that direction given divergence in U.S., Japan monetary polices.'
and 'believe PM Abe will like to take into account MOF's corporate survey, due early Dec, in making final decision on if to raise sales tax hike.'
Tuesday will see the release of Australia's trade balance and retail sales, RBA interest rate decision and statement, U.K. Halifax house price, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Redbook, ISM New York index, factory orders and durable goods.
AceTraderFx Nov 4: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 04 Nov 2014 01:10GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9648
55 HR EMA
0.9625
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
50
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal rise
Resistance
0.9800 - Psychological lvl
0.9745 - 2.618 times ext. of 0.8698-0.9037 fm 0.8857
0.9692 - Y'day's fresh 1-year peak
Support
0.9612 - Fri's NY low
0.9581 - Fri's European low
0.9544 - Last Thur's NY low
. USD/CHF - 0.9645... Although the greenback opened higher in NZ on Mon due to dlr's broad-based strength n rose briefly to a fresh 1-year peak at 0.9692 at Asian open, price pared its gains n retreated to session low at 0.9635 in NY morning on poor U.S. mfg PMI b4 moving sideways in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's breach of Oct's 1-year peak at 0.9690 signals the 3-legged upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 has once again resumed n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen for gain twds 0.9722, being the 61.8% projection of 0.9104-0.9690 measured fm 0.9360.
Having said that, sharp move beyond there is unlikely to be seen due to loss of momentum n reckon res 0.9745/49 (2.618 times extension of 0.8698-0.9037 fm 0.8857 n equality of 0.9301-0.9690 measured fm 0.9360 respectively) shud remain intact n yield a much-needed correction later this week. On the downside, below sup 0.9581 (Fri's NY low) wud indicate a temp. top has been made n stronger retracement twds 0.9544 wud follow.
. Today, we are looking to trade fm both sides of the market n will buy dlr on dips to 0.9615 or wud sell if price climbs marginally to 0.9710 1st.
AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Nov 2014 02:04GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2553.. Ahead of Thurday's ECB policy meeting, WSJ reported the ultra low inflation becoming entrenched in Europe is playing out in strikingly different ways across the euro zone's 18 economies, complicating attempts to combat it.
In crisis-hit countries such as Greece n Spain, the detrimental effects of falling prices, known as deflation, are showing up clearly in strained profits n lower wages as companies try to adjust. But in healthier economies such as Germany n Austria, where unemployment is low and incomes are up, the most obvious impact is a boost to consumers' purchasing power.
At 0.4% in annual terms, euro zone inflation is far below the ECB's target of close-to 2%. A survey of purchasing managers released this week showed manufacturers cutting prices for a 2nd-straight month. The European Commission on Tuesday forecast inflation in the euro zone will remain below-target until at least 2016.
The ECB meets Thursday n is expected by analysts to refrain from new stimulus, but to keep the door open to dramatic measures such as gov't bond purchases if needed. Officials have signaled that they prefer to wait for recent measures including interest-rate cuts, bank loans n private-debt purchases to take hold before weighing additional steps.
In Asian morning, the euro maintains a firm undertone following yesterday's rally in NY morning to 1.2577. Price traded was above European low at 1.2501 in NY n jumped on Reuters report euro area central bankers were planning to challenge ECB President Draghi's leadership style.
In its exclusive report, Reuters said the bankers are particularly angered that Draghi effectively set a target for increasing the ECB's balance sheet immediately after the policy-making governing council explicitly agreed not to make any figure public, the sources said.
Some members intend to raise their concerns with Draghi at the governors' traditional informal working dinner on Wednesday before their formal monthly rate-setting meeting on Thursday.
Despite the intra-day brief but sharp rise to 1.2577, euro later moved sideways on lack of follow-through buying n retreated to 1.2541.
Range trading was expected to continue in Asia with offers noted at 1.2575/80, stops were reported above there, however, more selling interest was noted at 1.2590/00.
On the downside, initial bids were reported at 1.2545-40 n more below with stops touted below 1.2500.
Pay attention to a slew of eco. data in European morning with Italy's Markit services PMI, then the same fm France, Germany & the euro zone.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand's HLFS unemployment rate, job growth and labour cost index, China's HSBC services PMI, Swiss CPI, German Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. ADP National employment, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and employment index.