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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Nov 2014 00:15GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9633
55 HR EMA
0.9629
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
62
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9742 - Nov's fresh 1-year peak
0.9700 - Last Tue's high
0.9689 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.9574 - Last Fri's low
0.9553 - Y'day's low
0.9511 - Oct 28 high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.9646... Despite a brief recovery to 0.9601 in Australia on Mon, intra-day sell off in dlr/yen led to broad-based usd's weakness n pressured price to 0.9553 in Asian morning. However, dlr quickly pared its losses n rose to 0.9624 in Europe n then to session high of 0.9652 in NY morning.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y'day's retreat to 0.9553, subsequent strg rebound suggests the 1st leg of correction fm Nov's fresh 1-year peak at 0.9742 has ended there n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen. Abv res 0.9689 (last Fri's high) wud add credence to this view n extend gain to 0.9700 (last Tue's top), however, aforesaid peak may hold initially n yield more choppy consolidation. On the downside, only below 0.9553 wud indicate the corrective decline fm 0.9742 has resumed instead n turn outlook bearish for further weakness twds 0.9511 (prev. res, now sup).
. Today, in view of near term bullish bias, we are buying dlr on dips for gain to 0.9700 n only below 0.9574 (Fri's low) wud indicate recovery fm y'day's low at 0.9553 has ended n risk re-test of this lvl later.
AceTraderFx Nov 19: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Nov 2014 01:28GMT
USD/JPY - ........ Dlr swung wildly on Tuesday following Japan PM Abe said to dissolve parliament and postpone next year's sales tax hike.
Despite a brief sell off but sharp sell off from 117.05 to 116.35 after the announcement, speculation for new stimulus measures from BoJ after 2-day meeting on Wednesday pushed price higher in NY and dlr eventually rose to a fresh 7-year peak at 117.21 in Tokyo morning b4 retreating.
Today's focus in Asia will be on the BoJ's monetary policy announcement n then the conference in Asian midday.
BOJ board may call for a bleaker view to be given this time, however, any signs that Kuroda's conviction about the recovery is wavering may spur speculation of more easing early next year.
As dlr has resumed its recent strong ascent in Asia, buying on dips is recommended.
Bids are noted at 116.80-70 with mixture of bids and stops located at 116.55/50 and 116.25/20.
On the upside, offers are placed at 117.20-30 and further out at 117.50-60 with stops emerging above 117.80.
Wednesdaywill see the release of BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts and FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Nov 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Nov 2014 02:03GMT
EUR/USD- ...... The single currency swung wildly on Wednesday as despite ratcheting higher from Asian low at 1.2513 to a fresh near 3-week high at 1.2602 in NY after release of FOMC minutes, renewed broad-based buying in greenback emerged and quickly knocked price down to 1.2525.
Later, euro recovered to 1.2556 in Thursday's Australia before retreating to 1.2530 in Asian morning.
The overnight sell off and failure to close above 1.2600 level yesterday suggest initial choppy trading with downside bias would be seen and selling euro on recovery ahead of the release of a slew of PMI reports from EU and its member countries in European morning is the favorable strategy.
Offers are placed at 1.2550-60 and then 1.2575/80 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 1.2600.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.2510-00 and around 1.2480 with stops located just below 1.2450.
Last night the single currency briefly rose to 1.2602 after the release of FOMC minutes which showed many Federal Reserve policy makers last month said they should be on the lookout for signs of a decline in expectations for inflation, however, renewed dollar's strength knocked price lower.
Thursday will see the release of Japan's export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany's producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada's wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Nov 20: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 20 Nov 2014 00:42GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.5666
55 HR EMA
1.5660
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
55
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
1.5760 - Last Thur's Aust. low
1.5737 - Mon's high
1.5720 - Y'day's NY high
Support
1.5647 - Y'day's NY low
1.5620 - Mon's low
1.5590 - Y'day's fresh 14-mth low
. GBP/USD - 1.5674 ... Despite cable's brief drop below last Fri's 1.5593 low to 1.5590 (1.55895 to be exact) in Europe, price jumped n later rallied to 1.5701 at European midday after MPC minutes showed 2 policy makers supported a rate rise. Price later climbed to 1.5720 after FOMC minutes b4 retreating.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, cable's rally fm y'day's fresh 14-month trough at 1.5590 to as high as 1.5720 signals MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has made a temporary low there as aforesaid low was accompanied by prominent 'bullish convergences' on the hourly oscillators, subsequent macd's rise abv the zero line adds credence to this view, suggesting a few days of choppy consolidation with upside bias wud be seen n abv 1.5737 res (this week's high) wud bring stronger gain to 1.5768, this is a 'natural' 50% r of the intermedaite fall fm 1.5945-1.5590.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.5620 wud signal correction is over, then one more fall twd 1.5636 wud follow.
. Today, intra-day softness following y'day's retreat fm 1.5720 suggests consolidation is in store with initial downside bias, however, reckon NY low at 1.5647 wud contain weakness n bring another rebound, abv 1.5720, 1.5737.
AceTraderFx Nov 21: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2014 02:00GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr went through a roller coaster session on Thursday as despite an initial rally to a fresh 7-year peak at 118.98 shortly European open, selling interest located below 119.00 level knocked price lower ahead of NY open.
The greenback eventually fell to 117.74 in NY morning after release of worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and soft inflation data before rebounding to 118.32 due to upbeat U.S. existing home sales figures.
Dlr briefly climbed to 118.37 in Friday Tokyo morning and then tumbled to 117.45 on risk aversion due to intra-day fall in Nikkei (currently down 0.9% to 17144) and comments from Japan FinMin Aso (see our prev. MMN).
Although dlr's intra-day sell off below 117.74 support signals further choppy trading below yesterday's top at 118.98 would continue and selling on recovery is recommended, price may find support near 117.00 level as growing divergence of economic and monetary policy developments between the U.S. and Japan should continue to provide support to the pair.
Bids are noted 117.40-30 n then 117.10-00 with mixture of bids and stops emerging just below 117.00.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are placed at 117.90/00, 118.20-30 and more near 118.50 level.
Friday will release U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI.
AceTraderFx Nov 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2014 07:51GMT
USD/JPY - ...... .Japan PM Adviser Hamada said, quote:
'Abenomics working well but negative impact from April sales tax hike stronger than expected;
dlr/yen at Y120 positive for overall Japan economy but steps needed to ease impact on consumers;
consumer inflation around 1.5% is acceptable under current jobs mkt situation;
corporate tax rate should be cut to closer to 20%.'
The greenback briefly retreated to 117.60 after his comments. Earlier, dlr rebounded to 117.98 after intra-day sharp sell off to a fresh 1-week low at 117.36 in Tokyo morning as Nikkei turned from negative to positive territory and ended the day up 0.33% at 17357.
Bids are noted at 117.45/40 and then 117.25/20 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 117.00, whilst offers are located at 117.80-90 and more at 118.15/20 and 118.30/35 with stops placed just above 118.50.
Earlier news reported that PM Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament's lower house for an election on Friday, seeking a fresh mandate for his struggling Abenomics revival strategy just two years after he returned to power promising that "Japan is Back".
The speaker of the lower house read the dissolution proclamation to a plenary session of the chamber.
No election for parliament's lower house needed to be held until late 2016. But Abe is hoping to cement his grip on power before his support ratings, now below 40 percent in some surveys but still sturdy by Japanese standards, slip further.
The date of the election, expected to be on Dec. 14, will officially be set at a cabinet meeting in the afternoon.
AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 21 Nov 2014 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2541
55 HR EMA
1.2533
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
55
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Chopy sideways trading to continue
Resistance
1.2685 - 61.8% r fm 1.2788-1.2357
1.2602 - Wed's NY high
1.2575 - Y'day's high
Support
1.2505 - Y'day's low
1.2480 - 50% r of 1.2357-1.2602
1.2444 - Tue's low
. EUR/USD - 1.2547... The single currency continued to whip around in intra-day trade on Thur. Despite staging a brief bounce fm 1.2524 to 1.2575, euro briefly dived to 1.2505 after release of downbeat German & EZ PMIs, however, the pair rebounded again to 1.2769 in New York morning b4 moving sideways.
. Looking at the hourly chart n daily charts, despite Wed's brief breach of Mon's high of 1.2578 to 1.2602, subsequent retreat to 1.2505 suggests the early 3-legged corrective upmove fm Nov's 26-month trough at 1.2357 has 'possibly' formed a temporary top there n few days of choppy consolidation is in store, how ever, below 1.2501/05 sup (Tue's NY low n y'day's low respectively) is needed to confirm n yield stronger pullback to 1.2444/51 (being Tue's low n 61.8% r of 1.2357-1.2602). Looking ahead, only breach of pivotal sup at 1.2399 wud indicate MT decline fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed n bring retest of 1.2357 low next week. Abv 1.2602 wud send euro to 1.2622 n later 1.2685, being 50% n 61.8% r respectively of intermediate fall fm 1.2888-1.2357.
. Today, we are standing ahead initially n may give a buy recommendation if price holds abv 1.2505 for a move to 1.2622.
AceTraderFx Nov 24: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Nov 2014 02:21GMT
EUR/USD - ..... The single currency weakened broadly on Friday after dovish comments from ECB's President Mario Draghi. Euro fell sharply against the greenback from 1.2553 to 1.2424 in European morning and continued to ratchet lower after a brief recovery to 1.2460.
Later, the pair fell to as low as 1.2375 in NY and then 1.2360 at Mon's NZ open before recovering in thin Asian session.
Although euro's failure to test Nov's 26-month trough at 1.2357 suggests price is likely to stage a recovery ahead of European open, the single currency is expected to undergo another round of selling pressure later in the day due to recent 'negative sentiment'.
Therefore, whilst investors may look to buy euro on dips for a recovery towards 1.2400 for st trade, preferred strategy is selling on intra-day rebound.
Bids are placed at 1.2370-60 with stops emerging just below 1.2350.
On the upside, offers are located at 1.2390-00 and then 1.2415/20 with mixture of offers and stops noted at 1.2440/45 and just above 1.2450.
Investors should pay close attention to the release of German IFO reports in European morning (09:00GMT). Market forecasts the headline IFO Business Climate Index to edge further down to 103.0 in Nov, below the 103.2 booked in October, which was the lowest level since Dec 2012.
Meanwhile, the Current Assessment sub-index is also seen edging down to 107.9, after posting a figure of 108.4 a month ago. Only the IFO Expectations Index is projected to rise to 98.6, from 98.3 in Oct.
This week will see the release of following economic data:
Swiss non-farm payrolls, German Ifo business climate and U.S. Markit services PMI on Monday;
Japan's BoJ meeting minutes, New Zealand's RBNZ inflation expectation, German GDP, U.S. prelimary GDP, PCE prices and Redbook, Canada's retails and U.S. monthly home price and consumer confidence on Tuesday;
German import prices U.S. GDP and CBI distributive trades, U.S. core PCE, durables, personal income, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, pending homes sales change and building permits on Wednesday;
New Zealand's trade balance, Australia's HIA new home sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Nationwide house prices, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Germn Gfk consumer sentiment, HICP and CPI on Thursday;
Japan's unemployment rate, CPI, prelimary industrial output, IP forecast, retails sales, New Zealand's NBNZ business outlook U.S. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan's construction orders, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, EU inflation and unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and producer prices on Friday
AceTraderFx Nov 24: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Nov 2014 00:05GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.9679
55 HR EMA
0.9638
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
72
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Possible resumption of MT uptrend
Resistance
0.9772 - 61.8% proj. of 0.9024-0.9690 fm 0.9360
0.9742 - Nov 07 fresh 1-year high
0.9714 - Intra-day high in NZ
Support
0.9664 - Hourly su9
0.9635 - Prev. hourly res (now sup)
0.9606 - Last Thur's high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.9714... The greenback also swung wildly in tandem with euro in inverse direction last week. Despite ratcheting lower to a 3-week bottom of 0.9530 last Wed, price jumped on FRi to 0.9709 due to intra-day selloff in the euro after ECB Draghi's repeated dovish comments of launching stimulus measures.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, dlr's aforesaid strg bounce fm 0.9530 to 0.9709 (Fri) signals pullback fm Nov's fresh 1-year peak at 0.9740 as ended there n re-test of this res lvl shud be forthcoming soon, break wud confirm MT uptrend fm 0.8698 (May's near 2-1/2 year low) has once again resumed n yield gain to next upside target at 0.9772, this is 61.8% proj. of intermediate rise fm 0.9024 to 0.9690 measured fm 0.9360. Having said that, as the daily technical indicators wud dispaly 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain may not be seen n reckon 0.9875 (61.8% proj. of 0.8857-0.9690 fm 0.9360) wud cap upside n risk has increased for a long-overdue correction to occur. On the downside, a daily close below 0.9530 signals temp. top is made n risks 0.9442.
. Today, price rose to 0.9731 in NZ is currently trading abv 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips is the way to go for subsequent headway twd 0.9772.
AceTraderFx Nov 25: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014 01:37GMT
USD/JPY- 118.06... Despite dlr's brief rise above NY res at 118.48 to 118.57 ahead of Asian open at the beginning of release of BoJ meeting minutes, price retreated subsequently as the minutes showed 4 out of the 9 BoJ board members were opposed to conducting additional easy policy because they worried about side-effects after expanding an aggressive easing program.
Dlr's intra-day fall accelerated after comments from BoJ's Governor Kuroda and then tanked to 117.80 before recovering.
Although broad-day buying of yen in Tokyo morning suggests selling dlr/yen pair on recovery is recommended, investors can look to book profit on next intra-day fall as last Friday's bottom at 117.36 (reaction low from 119.98 top) is expected to hold ahead of the speech from BOJ deputy governor Nakaso at 04:00GMT, followed by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda press conference at 04:45GMT.
Offers from various accounts are noted at 118.15/20 and then 118.30-40 with mixture of offers and stops located at 118.55-65.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.70/65, 117.55/50 with stops emerging just below 117.30.
Tuesdaywill see the release of Japan's BoJ meeting minutes, New Zealand's RBNZ inflation expectation, German GDP, U.S. prelimary GDP, PCE prices and Redbook, Canada's retail sales and U.S. monthly home price and consumer confidence.