Intraday trading signal - page 134
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
AceTraderFx Dec 15: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Dec 2014 00:33GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dollar swung wildly in early Asian trading following Japan's national election on Sunday. Reuters reported Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's coalition cruised to a big election win, ensuring he will stick to reflationary economic policies n a muscular security stance, but record low turnout pointed to broad dissatisfaction with his performance.
The Nikkei is currently down 264 points at 17108 following Friday's decline in the Dow & S&P 500.
The greenback fell due to broad-based gain in the yen after Japanese stocks weakened following an expected big victory for Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's coalition in Sun's election.
Although dlr opened high at 119.04 in thin New Zealand session, price quickly swung from gain to losses due to broad-based buying in yen, dlr later fell to 117.78 ahead of Tokyo open before staging a recovery.
Abe's LDP n its junior partner, the Komeito party, won 326 seats, more than the 317 seats in the 475-member lower house required to maintain a two-thirds "super-majority" that smoothes parliamentary business. But the LDP won 291, slightly short of the 295 it held before the poll.
"I believe the public approved of two years of our 'Abenomics' policies," Abe said in a televised interview. "But that doesn't mean we can be complacent."
Turnout was estimated to be a record low of 53.3%, below the 59.3% in a 2012 poll that returned Abe to power for a rare 2nd term on pledges to reboot an economy plagued by deflation n an aging, shrinking population.
Hopes for Abenomics were hit when Japan slipped into recession in the 3rd quarter following an Apr sales tax rise. Wage increases have not kept pace with price rises n data suggest any economic rebound is fragile.
Data to be released this week:
Japan's Tankan surveys, Switzerland's Proper/Import Price, UK's CBI Trends, U.S.'s NY Fed Manufacturing, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, NAHB Housing Market Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows on Monday.
Australia's RBA Minutes, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI for France, Germany and Eurozone, Italy's Trade Balance, UK's PPI, CPI,RPI, BoE Financial Stability Report, Germany ZEW Current Conditions, Eurozone's trade balance, Canada's Manufacturing sales, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, redbook and Markit Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday.
New Zealand's Current Account, Japan's Trade Balance, exports, imports, Switzeland's SNB's Quarterly Bulletin, ZEW Investor Sentiment, UK's BoE Meeting Minutes and MPC Vote Outcome, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment, Eurozone's Inflation data, Lobour Costs, Canada's Wholesale trade, U.S.'s CPI, Current Account, FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand's GDP, China's House Prices, Switzerland's Trade, Germany's IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Philly Fed Business and Leading index change on Thursday.
New Zealand's NBNZ Business Outlook, Germany's Gfk Consumer confidence, Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Producer Prices, France's Business Climate, Eurozone's Current Accounts, Italy's Industrial Sales, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, PSNCR, PSNB, CBI Distributive Trades, Canada's CPI and Retail Saleson Friday.
AceTraderFx Dec 15: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Dec 2014 23:46GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.5718
55 HR EMA
1.5708
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
56
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
1.5791 - 61.8% r of 1.6145-1.5541
1.5763 - Last Mon's high
1.5557 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5652 - Y'day's low
1.5648 - Wed's low
1.5626 - Tue's low
. GBP/USD - 1.5728... Although cable opened lower in tandem with eur/usd last Mon n fell to a fresh 14-month trough at 1.5541, however, rebound in the single ccy quickly led to short-covering in sterling, the pound ratcheted higher to 1.5757 on Thur b4 retreating to 1.5652. Price rebounded to 1.5746 Fri in NY.
. On the bigger picture, as cable's aforesaid 2014 low at 1.5541 was accompanied by prominent 'bullish convergences' on the daily indicators, suggesting the MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has possibly formed a temporary low there, a daily close abv 1.5757 wud add credence to this view, then price wud be en route to next chart obj. at 1.5826, break wud encourage for further headway twd 1.5875 (Oct's low), then 1.5826. On the downside, only a failure to penetrate 1.5757 res n subsequent break below 1.5626/30 sup wud signal correction is over n yield re-test of 1.5541, then one more fall to 1.5500/10, however, reckon 1.5360 (equality measure. of 1.7192-1.6052 fm 1.6525) wud hold.
. Today, expect initial sideways move in Asia n as long as Fri's low at 1.5696 holds, intra-day upside bias for re-test of 1.5757 1st, abv wud encourage for subsequent gain to 1.5770 , then 1.5785/87. Only below 1.5752 risks 1.5626.
AceTraderFx Dec 16: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Dec 2014 02:23GMT
EUR/USD - ....... The single currency fell on Monday after comments from ECB's Nowotny who said 'no prospect for more interest rate moves; not goal of ECB to have uniform interest rates in Europe; ECB efforts can function only if complemented by fiscal policy moves; take-up TLTROs won't have big impact on ECB balance sheet; rules out ECB buying bonds on primary market; prospect of QE depends on economic situation; ECB will take care that its policy does not lead to restrictive effects; Eurozone inflation will probably decline in Q1, driven by energy prices.'
However, buying interest at 1.2416 lifted the pair to 1.2479/80 in NY before trading sideways.
Bids are now located at 1.2425-20 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2400.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2470-75 and more at 1.2485-90 with stops building up at 1.2500.
Yesterday, ECB's Visco said, quote:
'oil price falls will further lower inflation in coming months, many at ECB support containing deflation risk.'
Also yesterday, BundesBank statement:
'ECB council unanimous in agreeing to use additional unconventional measures if needed;
risks to Euro zone economic outlook are on the downside; this would mean changing scope, pace n composition of ECB measures at start of next year; sustained drop in oil price would result in 0.4% cut to its 2015 German inflation forecast.'
Tuesday will see the release of Australia's RBA Minutes, Japan Normura/JMMA manufacturing PMI, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI for France, Germany and Eurozone, Italy's Trade Balance, UK's Bank stress test results, PPI, CPI,RPI, BoE Financial Stability Report, Germany ZEW Current Conditions, Eurozone's trade balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada's Manufacturing sales, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, Redbook and Markit Manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Market Outlook on Major (USD/JPY)
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 16 Dec 2014 07:54 GMT
USD/JPY- The greenback swung wildly on Monday following the Japan's election on Sunday. Despite opening higher to 119.04 in New Zealand yesterday, the pair tumbled to 117.78 ahead of Tokyo open and then rallied to 119.06 in Asia.
U.S. dollar later met renewed selling at 118.98 in NY on renewed risk aversion due to the sell off in global stock markets.
Today's breach of last Thursday's low at 117.45 confirms recent decline from last Monday's fresh 7-year high at 121.85 to retrace medium-term uptrend has resumed and further weakness to 117.06 and then towards 116.40/41 is likely, however, o/sold condition would limit downside to 116.00 and bring a much-needed correction later.
On the upside, only a breach of 118.00/01 would signal a low has possibly been made and bring stronger gain to 118.98/06 and then towards 119.56.
AceTraderFx Dec 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Dec 2014 01:50GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported earlier Japan's exports grew for a 3rd straight month in November from a year earlier, but much more slowly than expected and despite a sharp fall in the yen as slowing demand in Asia & Europe dampened trade.
The 4.9% rise in exports was much weaker than a 7.0% gain seen by economists in a Reuters poll, slowing from a 9.6% gain in October, MoF data showed.
Weakness in exports could compound April's sales tax rise which pushed the economy into a recessionary 2nd quarter of contraction through September.
The data followed the BoJ's key tankan survey, which showed business confidence barely improved in the 4th quarter, suggesting a slow climb out of recession despite gains in share prices and a steep fall in the yen.
The BOJ is expected to stand pat at a monetary policy meeting on Friday.
Export volume fell 1.7% in the year to November, the first annual drop in 3 months. Japanese shipments have struggled to pick up because companies have moved much of their production overseas, limiting gains from a weak currency.
At yesterday NY opening, despite dlr's intra-day volatile swing after early sell off to a fresh near 1-month trough at 115.58 in Europe, price rebound after meeting renewed buying interest at 116.01 in the NY morning and then continued to edge higher after release of higher-than-expected U.S. Markit mfg PMI.
A report from Markit showed the U.S. mfg sector continued to expand in December, but growth rate hit an 11-mth low.
Markit said its preliminarily U.S. Mfg PMI index fell to 53.7 in December from November's 54.8, matching the 2014 January low when severe weather impacted economic activity. Market expected the reading to be 55.2.
Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's Current Account, Japan's Trade Balance, exports, imports, Switzeland's SNB's Quarterly Bulletin, ZEW Investor Sentiment, UK's BoE Meeting Minutes and MPC Vote Outcome, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment, Eurozone's Inflation data, Labour Costs, Canada's Wholesale trade, U.S.'s CPI, Current Account, FOMC Rate Decision
AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK (EUR/USD)
17 Dec 2014 04:37 GMT
EUR/USD: The single currency rallied on Tuesday due to the release of as upbeat German and eurozone economic data.
Price ratcheted higher from Australian low at 1.2434 to a fresh near 1-month peak at 1.2570 before retreating to 1.2478 in NY on renewed broad-based strength in dollar.
Aforesaid upmove confirms erratic up move from last Monday's 27-month trough at 1.2247 to retrace medium-term downtrend has resumed and further gain to 1.2607 resistance is likely before prospect of a strong retreat later.
On the downside, only a breach of 1.2415 support would confirm the corrective upmove has ended instead and yield weakness to 1.2370.
AceTraderFx Dec 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Dec 2014 09:46GMT
GBP/USD - ...... The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and continued to weaken throughout the session. Price eventually hit a low at 1.5677/78 in early European morning, however, cable pared its losses and rebounded strongly to 1.5729 after the release of UK average earnings and BoE minutes.
Bids are now seen at 1.5700/10 and more below at 1.5680/90 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5750/60, suggesting buying on dips is favored.
The BoE has focused more on wage growth as it considers when to start raising rates. Data due to be released at the same time of the minutes on Wed was expected to show earnings rising faster than inflation for a 2nd month in Oct.
The minutes showed the majority who voted to keep rates on hold thought faster pay growth would be required to meet the 2% inflation target.
However, those in favour of a rate rise thought this was already in train.
Financial market investors have pushed back their bets on the timing of the next interest rate hike markedly over the past few months, n are now pricing in the first move late next year.
Last month the BoE issued forecasts that showed British inflation will likely fall below 1% in the next 6 months, while Carney suggested markets were right to rule out an interest rate hike any time soon.
AceTraderFx Dec 18: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Dec 2014 02:40GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable is nursing yesterdays sharp losses in quiet Asian trading on Thursday after o/n sell off below December's 1.5541 low to a fresh 14-1/2 month trough of 1.5530 after Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish remarks at the post-FOMC press conference.
Despite tripping stops in a rather illiquid late NY session, short covering quickly lifted the pound once the sell stops were done.
Price briefly bounced to 1.5603 n then moved narrowly in Australia. Asian traders are happy to stay on the sideline until European open.
Looks like Wednesday's low print would continue to hold until release of key U.K. retail sales data at 09:30GMT. Street forecasts are looking for a weakish Novmeber number with M/M to be 0.3% vs previous reading of +0.8% whilst Y/Y figure is expected to be 4.4% vs previous reading of 4.3%.
If both readings come in weaker than forecast, one can expect another round of pound bashing.
Until then, offers are noted at 1.5600/10 and more above with stops reported above 1.5630.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5505-00 with some stops below there.
Thursdaywill see the release of New Zealand's GDP, Australia's RBA Bulletin, China's House Prices, Switzerland's Trade, Germany's IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Business and Leading index change. Japan's BoJ will begin its 2-day meeting.
AceTraderFx Dec 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Dec 2014
USD/JPY ......Earlier, the recent announcement of a major overhaul in Japan's GPIF pushed the Nikkei to a 7-year high of 18030 Dec.
A piece of news from WSJ worth noting. The WSJ reported Japan's $1.1 tln GPIF should be managed by a board of directors rather than a president, as is currently the case, a panel of outside experts has concluded.
At the urging of PM Shinzo Abe, the GPIF has changed its investment philosophy, becoming more sophisticated and aggressive.
It has hired a new chief investment officer, n said in Oct that it would drastically reallocate its conservative portfolio. Mr. Abe has made overhauling the GPIF a key goal as part of his efforts to putting Japan back on a path to long-term growth. Now the task is to revamp its management structure.
The panel held its sixth n final meeting Wed, but despite 12 hours of debate in the past couple of months remained divided on issues such as whether the chief executive officer should sit on the board.
Perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise that the group has differed on some issues.
Welfare Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki, an Abe appointee n a staunch advocate of an aggressive overhaul of the fund's management, pushed hard for the group to be formed, n some of its members have expressed views similar to his.
But bureaucrats at the health ministry, which oversees the GPIF, argued that the group should include more cautious voices. The group will present its ideas to the health ministry panel for further discussion, n eventually the ministry will draft a law to submit to parliament.
This morning the greenback rallied against the Japanese yen on Wednesday after the widely expected comments fm Fed's Chair Janet Yellen who altered a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a "considerable time" but signalled it was on track to raise interest rates next year.
However, the Fed's statement showed it was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of meetings," meaning April of next year at the earliest.
U.S. dollar rose to 118.90 near New York close n then extended the rally to 119.01 in Tokyo morning due to the more than 400 points or 2% rise in Nikkei-225 index, however, profit-taking at 119.00 level capped dlr's upside somewhat n price retreated briefly to around 118.57.
AceTraderFx Dec 19: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Dec 2014 01:57GMT
USD/JPY- ....... Despite Thursday's brief but strong retreat from 119.01 (Tokyo) to 118.26 in European morning on profit-taking, renewed buying quickly emerged n the pair rallied to an intra-day high of 119.36 due to the rally in global stock markets b4 retreating to 118.58.
Bids are now reported at 118.80, 118.60 and further out at 118.40-30. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.10-20 and 119.40.
Trading is relatively thin in Asia today as investors are waiting for BOJ rate decision and the press conference by BOJ's governor Kuroda later today.
Statement from Japan's FINMIN Aso, quote:
'expects Russian gov't will prevent rouble falls fm leading to turmoil seen in 1998;
oil prices are falling but still at high levels.'
Statement from Japan's ECONMIN Akira Amari, quote:
-weak yen has benefited exporters but high import costs have hurt household;
-falling oil prices a positive for economy but make sure we escape deflation.
Fridaywill see the release of New Zealand's NBNZ Business Outlook, Japan leading economic index, BoJ rate decision, BoJ monetary policy statement and BoJ Governor Kuroda's press conference, Germany's Gfk Consumer confidence, Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Producer Prices, France's Business Climate, Eurozone's Current Accounts, Italy's Industrial Sales, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, PSNCR, PSNB, CBI Distributive Trades, Canada's CPI and Retail Sales.