Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader - page 2
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INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 24 May 2010 06:10 GMT
Range Forecast
89.95 / 90.35
Resistance/Support
R: 90.26/90.49/90.75
S: 89.74/89.54/89.22
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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 24 May 2010 06:05 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2505 / 1.2540
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2554/1.2599/1.2641
S: 1.2481/1.2470/1.2438
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INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 24 May 2010 06:06 GMT
Range Forecast
1.1505 / 1.1540
Resistance/Support
R: 1.1546/1.1587/1.1611
S: 1.1490/1.1450/1.1419
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INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 24 May 2010 06:24 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4465 / 1.4499
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4499/1.4522/1.4546
S: 1.4454/1.4416/1.4362
Market Review - 24/05/2010 21:24 GMT
Euro weakens as bank failure in Spain stokes debt fears
Euro declined on Monday as European debt crisis continued to weigh on the single currency after Spanish central bank seized a local savings bank over weekend. Investors were jittery by such event as weakness in the European banking sector highlighted sovereign debt risk could spread from the public to the private sector.
Despite Friday's strong rebound from 1.2470 to 1.2599, euro was under broad-based selling pressure at the start of Australian trading on Monday , price fell from 1.2586 to 1.2481 in Asian morning as traders were slowly reacting to weekend's news report of bailout by Spanish central bank of one of the local savings bank called CajaSur which ran into difficulty by property loan defaults and this seizure would probably increase the burden on Spain’s finances as the government tries to reduce its budget deficit. Despite staging a minor recovery, the single currency tumbled again in Europe and hit an intra-day low of 1.2345 in NY morning before staging a minor recovery to 1.2417.
Although the British pound rose briefly to 1.4529 in European morning, selloff in euro dragged cable lower and price subsequently tumbled to 1.4352 in the US session. However, cable managed to stage a strong rebound to 1.4464 due partly to cross-buying in sterling vs euro (Eur/gbp fell from 0.8678 to 0.8564). Earlier, British finance minister George Osborne and Treasury minister David Laws outlined plans to cut 6.25 billion pounds of government spending. Bank of England's Miles said inflation should start to fall to 2% target over the next 6 months and indicated eurozone problems pose risks to UK's fragile recovery. Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen also said that the U.K. is not going to get the kind of strong recovery from its economic malaise like Japan did.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback opened sharply higher and climbed briefly to 90.75 in the NZ/AUS session. Despite subsequent dip to 89.74, price rebounded from there and spent the rest of the day inside intra-day established as the markets were relatively thin due to European and Canadian market holidays.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: U.K. GDP, Import, Export, E.U. Industrial order, U.S. Consumer confidence and house price index.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD: 0.8205
Last Update At 25 May 2010 02:47 GMT
Despite aud's intra-day brief fall to 0.8172,
subsequent rebound suggests choppy sideways trading
is in store in Asia n recovery to 0.8240/50 can not
be ruled out, however, reckon 0.8272/77 shud cap
present rise n yield another fall later.
Stand aside n look to sell on recovery to 0.8235
but below 0.8172 needed to extend to 0.8150.
Range Forecast
0.8190 / 0.8230
Resistance/Support
R: 0.8250/0.8276/0.8301
S: 0.8172/0.8150/0.8087
Market Review - 25/05/2010 21:38 GMT
Euro rebounds strongly on short-covering due to recovery in U.S. stocks
The euro rebounded strongly on short-covering in NY session as U.S. stocks trimmed most of their losses. Earlier, the takeover of a Spanish savings bank by Spain's central bank over the weekend together with escalating tension between North and South Korea sparked massive risk aversion activities, prompting investors to flock to currencies such as the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen for safety.
The Spanish central bank seized a local savings bank CajaSur over the last weekend and this fueled fears of systemic risks in the banking system. Euro remained under broad-based selling pressure in Asia and fell to 1.2177 in European mid-day before rebounding strongly on short-covering and partly due to cross-buying in euro versus yen and the pound as eur/jpy also rebounded strongly from the lowest level since 2001 of 108.83. Euro also drew support as DJI pared most of its early losses, price rallied 292 points from its intra-day low while S&P 500 managed to end the day up by 0.04% at 1074.03. In other news, German Finance Ministry draft document showed that Germany plans to introduce a ban on naked short selling of shares that may include all stocks to stabilise financial markets. Besides, a Greek government official said the nation would launch a 3-year privatisation programme in which state assets would be sold to raise at least 3 billion euros by 2013.
Earlier, a report showed that N. Korea had been mobilising its forces, suggesting the recent tension between North and South Korea had been escalating. Another report showed that N. Korean leader Kim had told his troops to get ready for combat if under attack and this sparked risk aversion and drove investors to buy the Japanese yen. The usd/jpy pair remained under pressure throughout Asia and fell to 89.26 in European afternoon. However, the pair managed to stage a strong rebound and ended the day at 90.22.
The British pound moved in tandem with euro again on Tuesday. Cable first declined from 1.4410 and hit an intra-day low of 1.4260 in European mid-day. The pair, however, staged a strong rebound on short-covering in NY afternoon and ended the day at 1.4408.
In other news, three regional Federal Reserve banks, Richmond, St. Louis and Dallas, last month wanted to raise the discount rate which the central bank charges banks for emergency loans from 0.75% to 1.00%, as revealed by the Fed meetings released on Tuesday. Most Fed bank directors, however, favored maintaining accommodative stance given downside risks.
On economic front, U.S. consumer confidence came in at 63.3, versus economists' forecast of 59.0. U.S. home price rose by 0.3% m/m and decreased by 2.2% y/y in March. U.K. GDP for the first quarter of this year revised up to 0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y as widely expected from expectation of 0.2% q/q and -0.3% y/y. Eurozone industrial orders rose by 5.2% m/m and 19.8% y/y in March, much higher than economists' forecast of 2.0% m/m and 14.6% y/y.
Economic data to be released on Wednesday include: Japan CSPI, Australia leading economic index, Germany Gfk index, U.S. durable goods, new homes change and new homes sale.
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4365
Last Update At 26 May 2010 05:57 GMT
Despite falling in tandem with euro just ahead
of European opening to 1.4350, present minor bounce
suggests intra-day decline fm 1.4449 (AUS) has 'pos
sibly' made a low there n abv 1.4395 wud signal the
pullback 1.4449 to retrace y'day's rise has ended.
Exit short n stand aside. Abv 1.4395 wud yield
1.4420/30 whilst below 1.4350 extends to 1.4236.
Range Forecast
1.4350 / 1.4390
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4395/1.4425/1.4449
S: 1.4350/1.4336/1.4306
Market Review - 26/05/2010 21:20 GMT
Euro weakens on European debt woes and China repositioning fears
The euro declined across the board for 3 consecutive days on persistent European debt woes while a surprisingly poor demand for German bonds also pressured the single currency. In addition, a Financial Times (FT) report showed that China was reviewing its eurozone bond holdings added further bearish sentiment on euro.
Although the single currency rebounded strongly on Tuesday from 1.2177 and hit an intra-day high of 1.2388 in Australian morning session on Wednesday, euro tumbled from there and despite a minor recovery from 1.2262, renewed selling at 1.2345 sent the pair lower and euro picked up more downward momentum after the release of upbeat US data on durable goods and new home sales. The pair eventually fell below 1.2177 and sank to 1.2166 in NY afternoon after U.K.'s FT reported China's officials of the country's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which managed the reserves under China's central bank, had been meeting with foreign bankers to discuss the eurozone bond holdings because of growing concern about gaping deficits in euro zone member countries including Greece and Portugal. Besides, Germany sold 5.45 billion euros of 5-year bonds on Wednesday but the auction was met with poor demand as it only drew demand of 1.1 times the amount on offer, decreasing from the previous results of 1.5 times. In addition, European Central Bank Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen said a 'true recovery' of the eurozone economy will only be possible when governments repair their finances.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback once sparked up to 90.51 in NZ/AUS session and retreated to 90.00 later. The pair then briefly rose to 90.68 after the release of better-than-expected U.S. new home sales which rose by 14.8% to 0.504 million in April versus the economists' forecast of 0.430 million together with upwardly revised 0.439 million in March. However, the usd/jpy pair fell to 89.81 as DJI staged a late-day reversal despite early rise of 135.28 points and ended the day down by 0.69% at 9974.45 on the news that China would review holdings. DJI closed below 10000 points for the first time since Feb of 2010. In other news, U.S. durable good orders rose by 2.9% in April, much higher than the economists' forecast of 1.3%.
The British pound rose to 1.4449 in Australian morning trading on Wednesday following overnight rebound from 1.4260. Although cable retreated to 1.4330 in European morning, the gbp/usd pair managed to edge up on cross-buying in sterling especially versus euro as the eur/gbp pair nosed-dived from 0.8575 to 0.8455 and cable finally ended the day at 1.4387.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: N.Z. Trade balance, imports, exports, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Germany's ifo index, U.K. CBI distribution trade, U.S. PCE, GDP deflator, U.S. jobless claims and Midwest manufacturing.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY
USD/JPY : 89.98
Last Update At 27 May 2010 02:26 GMT
Although dlr staged a minor bounce fm 89.82 (Aus
tralia), as renewed selling at 90.21 has capped
intra-day rise, consolidation with downside bias
remains for y'day's fall fm 90.68 to resume n yield
further weakness to 89.75 but 89.40/50 wud hold.
Trade fm short side, stop as indicated n only
abv 90.37 wud risk stronger gain twd 90.50/60.
Range Forecast
89.85 / 90.10
Resistance/Support
R: 90.21 / 90.37/ 90.75
S: 89.74 /89.54 / 89.26
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 27 May 2010 06:13 GMT
Range Forecast
90.08 / 90.37
Resistance/Support
R: 90.37 / 90.68 / 90.75
S: 90.08 / 89.74 / 89.54
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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 27 May 2010 06:37 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2285 / 1.2322
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2322/1.2345/1.2388
S: 1.2253/1.2221/1.2186
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 27 May 2010 06:21 GMT
Range Forecast
1.1513 / 1.1540
Resistance/Support
R: 1.1572/1.1616/1.1642
S: 1.1513/1.1482/1.1450
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 27 May 2010 06:37 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4480 / 1.4529
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4499/1.4529/1.4561
S: 1.4434/1.4381/1.4367
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4512
Last Update At 31 May 2010 08:45 GMT
Current breach of 1.4505 suggests the pullback
fm last Friday's high of 1.4612 has possibly ended
earlier at 1.4360 n consolidation with upside bias
wud be seen for gain to 1.4540, however, reckon
1.4587 shud cap upside n yield choppy trading.
Turn long on dips with stop as indicated, break
wud risk weakness to 1.4444.
Range Forecast
1.4495 / 1.4535
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4520/1.4564/1.4587
S: 1.4444/1.4435/1.4409
Market Review - 31/05/2010 17:05GMT
Japanese yen falls on political turmoil before rebounding on profit-taking in late European session
The Japanese currency fell against major currencies on Monday after a poll showed Sixty-three percent of Japanese voters want Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to resign as he abandoned a campaign pledge to move the U.S. base and fired Japan's Social Democratic Party's only Cabinet minister Fukushima after she refused to endorse the PM's decision. The greenback rose against the Japanese yen from 90.85 to 91.63 before falling again to 90.81 in late European session on profit-taking. Euro, aussie and sterling rose against the Japanese yen from 111.50 to 112.95, from 76.69 to 77.95 and from 131.38 to 132.94 before retreating.
The single currency extended last Friday's sharp fall on the downgrade of Spain's sovereign debt rating to 1.2255 before rebounding to 1.2335 on short-covering as data showed traders are reducing bearish bets on the currency and then traded sideways in European session due to U.K. and U.S. holiday.
Sterling was dumped due to the resignation of UK's coalition party's Chief Treasury Secretary David Laws (who was instrumental in the negotiations in setting up the latest coalition government) over the weekend on revelations about his parliamentary expenses, however, active cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp tumbled fm 0.8533 to 0.8443) lifted price and cable rallied from intra-day low of 1.4360 to as high as 1.4549.
The Canadian dollar advanced as a report showed Canada's GDP rose by 0.6% in the first quarter, stronger than economists' forecast of 0.5% rise, expanding at the fastest pace in a decade. U.S. currency fell against the Canadian dollar from 1.0552 to 1.0414 before rebounding to 1.0499 on
short-covering in late European session.
Tuesday will see the release of Australia retail sales and rate decision, Swiss GDP and PMI, Germany retail sales, manufacturing PMI and unemployment rate, E.U. Manufacturing PMI and unemployment rate, U.K. manufacturing PMI, Canada's rate decision, U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing.