Intraday trading signal - page 137
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AceTraderFx Jan 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jan 2015 08:00GMT
EUR/USD- ..... Euro fell briefly to a fresh near 9-year low of 1.1850 in thin Australian morning on Wed b4 moving sideways in Asia. Although European early birds tested the downside, renewed buying at 1.1855 has lifted the single currency at European open n price ratcheted higher to 1.1896.
Looks like minor consolidation is in store in European morning ahead of release of key EZ Dec inflation data at 10:00GMT, street forecast is looking for a further decline, if so, then euro wud come under renewed selling pressure on speculation of ECB's QE action at its next policy meeting on Jan 22. Therefore, selling euro on recovery is the way to go ahead of the data. Offers are tipped at 1.1895/1.1905 n more abv wud stops abv 1.1950/60, more stops are reported at 1.1980/90. Initial bids are noted at 1.1855-50 n more below (profit-taking).
This morning the single currency tumbled to a fresh near 9-year low at 1.1850 (Reuters) in Australian morning due to speculation that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month to combat the risk of deflation.
In other news, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials are working on a plan to buy government bonds as they strive to prevent a deflationary spiral of falling prices and households postponing spending and they may use a gathering tomorrow to weigh options for a quantitative-easing program that may be announced at their Jan. 22 policy meeting.
AceTraderFx Jan 8: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jan 2015 02:09GMT
USD/JPY- 119.63 ..... The greenback rebounded against the Japanese yen on short-covering due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index which rose by 1.52% or 257 points to 17142. The pair penetrated yesterday's NY rise at 119.65 and rose briefly to 119.71 in Tokyo morning.
Bids are now located 119.40 and 119.20 whilst offers are tipped at 119.80-85 and more at 120.00 level.
The ADP Research Institute reported yesterday that companies in the U.S. added 241,000 workers in December, more than the 225,000 expected by economists.
Yesterday despite the greenback's early pullback to 118.70 in European morning, renewed buying emerged there and lifted the price higher ahead of NY open. Intra-day ascent accelerated after the release of upbeat ADP employment report n the pair rose to 119.65 in NY morning before stabilizing.
Thursdaywill see the release of Australia building approvals, Germany industrial orders, EU producer prices, retail sales, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims and Canada new housing price.
AceTraderFx Jan 8: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Jan 2015 23:49GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.1847
55 HR EMA
1.1887
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
43
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Initial recovery b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.1969 - Tue's high
1.1958 - Tue's NY high
1.1896 - Y'day's high
Support
1.1802 - Y'day's fresh near 9-year low
1.1775 - 61.8% proj. of 1.2187-1.1861 fm 1.1976
1.1740 - 1.23 times extn of 1.1976-1.1850 fm 1.1896
. EUR/USD- 1.1835... Euro continued its recent losing streak on Wed after weak EU inflation data. Despite recovering fm Aust.'s 1.1850 low, renewed selling interest at 1.1896 capped intra-day gain in early Europe n euro later tanked to a 9-year trough of 1.1802 in NY morning b4 recovering after FOMC minutes.
. Looking at the bigger picture, euro's early break of major sup at 1.1876 (this was the reaction low made in 2010 fm euro's decline fm its record high of 1.6040 - post-Lehman top made in Jul 2008) confirms aforesaid LT downtrend fm 1.6040 to retrace the entire rise fm 0.8228 record low made in 2000 has resumed n price is en route twd 1.1212 in Q1, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of this move. On the upside, only abv 1.2123 (Dec 30 low, now res) wud signal a temporary low is made, then risk is seen for a correction twd 1.2254 (Dec 25 high on Reuters).
. Today, as y'day's 1.1802 low was accompanied by 'bullish convergences' on the hourly indicators, reckon 1.1775 (61.8% projection of 1.2187-1.1861 fm 1.1976) wud contain downside n yield minor correction. Therefore, we are buying on marginal fall in anticipation of a subsequent rebound to 1.1880. Abv 1.1896 (y'day's European high) signals temporary low is made n yield 1.1940/50.
AceTraderFx Jan 9: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jan 2015 02:32GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Despite initial retreat from NY high of 1.5118 to 1.5078 in Australia, cable rebounded to 1.5104 on dovish remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, its was a surprise dlr fell broadly on his comments since he is not a voting member of the 2015 FOMC and has announced plans to resign by early next year.
As yesterday's short-covering strong rebound from a 17-month bottom made in Europe at 1.5034 signals a temp. low is in place, range trading is expected in Asia.
Offers are tipped at 1.5100/10 with stops touted above 1.5130.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5080-70 and more below with stops reported below 1.5030.
Friday will see the release of Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, Italy ISTAT Public Deficit/GDP, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 9: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Jan 2015 23:50GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.0139
55 HR EMA
1.0107
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
55
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 correction
Resistance
1.0293 - 80.9% proj. of 0.9844-1.0165 fm 1.0033
1.0235 - 1.618 times ext. of 0.9554-0.9848 fm 0.8759
1.0217 - Y'day's 4-year high
Support
1.0127 - Wed's NY low
1.0095 - Wed's low
1.0033 - Mon's Asian low
. USD/CHF- 1.0184 ... The greenback continued to trade with a firm bias in Asia y'day n then climbed abv Wed's high at 1.0176 to a fresh 4-year peak at 1.0217 ahead of NY open on selloff in the euro. However, price pared intra-day gains n retreated to 1.0162 in NY morning b4 rebounding in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally abv Wed's peak at 1.0176 suggests the MT uptrend fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 remains in progress n upside bias remains for further gain twds 1.0235, this is 1.618 times extension of MT intermediate rise fm 0.9554-0.9848 measured fm 0.8759. Abv wud extend marginally, however, prominent 'bearish divergences' on hourly indicators shud prevent strg hain n reckon dlr's upside wud falter well below 1.0293 (80.9% proj. of 0.9844-1.0165 measured fm 1.0033) n yield a much-needed correction. On the downside, only below Wed's low at 1.0095 wud indicate a temporary top is in place n risk stronger retracement twd 1.0033 later.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on dips for gain to 1.0235 n only below hourly sup at 1.0127 wud abort intra-day bullishness on the greenback n risk stronger retracement but sup 1.0095 shud hold in 1st testing.
AceTraderFx Jan 12: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jan 2015 02:36GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Although the single currency eased after extending last Friday's rise to 1.1870 in thin Asian morning due to dlr's broad-based weakness, renewed buying interest is located at 1.1840 and more at 1.1820-10.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.1880-90 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.1900.
Market players are still focusing on the coming ECB's rate decision on 22 Jan that may impose more stimulus.
Central-bank staff have presented policy makers with models for buying as much as 500 billion euros ($593 billion) of investment-grade assets, according to a person who attended a meeting of the Governing Council last week.
Data to be released this week:
Australia Housing Finance, U.S. Employment Trends on Monday. Markets in Japan will be closed for Coming of Age Day.
Japan's Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.
Japan's Machine Tool Orders, France's CPI, Italy's CI, U.K.'s CB leading economic index, U.S.'s Expots, Imports, Retail sales, Business Inventories and Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.
Japan's Corp Goods Price and Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia's Employment, Unemployment, Participation Rate, Germany's GDP, U.S.'s PPI, NY Fed Manufacturing, Philly Fed Business Index on Thursday.
Germany's CPI and HICP, France Budget Balance, Switzerland Retail Sales, U.S. Real Weekly Earnings, CPI, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization, University of Michigan Sentiment, Net Long-Term Flowson Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 12: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Jan 2015 23:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.5146
55 HR EMA
1.5133
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
65
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Initial gain b4 retreat
Resistance
1.5258 - 38.2% r of 1.5621-1.5034
1.5224 - 100% proj. of 1.5034-1.5161 fm 1.5097
1.5207 - Hourly chart
Support
1.5139 - Hourly chart
1.5197 - Last Fri's post-NFP low
1.5078 - Last Fri's low (AUS)
. GBP/USD - 1.5185.. The British pound fell in tandem with eur/usd last week n continued its recent losing streak. Price weakened to a fresh 17-month trough of 1.5034 n then rebounded on short-covering on Thur after BoE stood pat on its monetary policy. Cable later rallied to 1.5177 Fri n then 1.5195 on Mon.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, cable's resumption of MT downtrend fm 2014 peak at 1.7192 to correct the LT rise fm 1.3500 (2009 low in Jan) is enroute to 1.5000 (psychological sup) n then 1.4910, this is the 61.8% r of the aforesaid rise, however, reckon key sup at 1.4814 (2013 bottom in Jul) shud remain intact. On the upside, only a move back abv 1.5320 (Mon's Asian high) wud suggest a temporary low is in place n bring correction twd 1.5486 (Dec 23 low). On the upside, current cable's rebound fm 1.5034 suggests a temporary low has been made n choppy trading is in store this week with initial upside bias is seen for correction to 1.5258 but 1.5328 shud hold, being, 38.2% n 50% r resp. of the intermediate fall fm 1.5621-1.5034 n yield resumption of downtrend later.
. Today, price may extend near term upmove fm 1.5034 to 1.5220/25 after consolidation, as hourly indicators wud be in o/bot territory, 1.5258 wud hold.
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Intra-Day News and Views ( GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jan 2015 01:29GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable shrugged off early release of weak U.K. retails sales and rebounded in tandem with euro due to intra-day renewed weakness in the greenback in Asia.
Reuters reported U.K. retail spending growth slowed in December after consumers splashed out on November's "Black Friday" bargains and prices continued to fall broadly, industry data showed on Tuesday.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said year-on-year retail spending was 1.0% higher this December than a year ago, the weakest December growth since 2008 and a sharp contrast with November's 2.2% jump.
Falling prices also weighed on spending. Shop prices were down by an average of 1.7% in December compared with 2013, the BRC said last week. Broader official data due for release at 09:30GMT is forecast to show consumer price inflation at a 12-year low of 0.7%.
Taking lower prices into account, retail sales volumes rose an annual 2.6%, the same as in Dec 2013. Retail spending on the BRC's like-for-like measure -- which excludes new stores n more closely reflects how stores report sales to shareholders -- were 0.4% down on the year.
Yesterday although the British pound fell from an intra-day high at 1.5195 to session low at 1.5099 in European morning on dlr's broad-based strength, cable pared its losses n rebounded strongly in tandem with euro to 1.5174 in NY morning. However, price met renewed selling there n retreated to 1.5136, weighed down by cross-selling of sterling vs euro.
Tuesdaywill see the release of Japan's Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.
AceTraderFx Jan 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jan 2015 03:22GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Reuters just reported Japan's economics minister said on Tuesday the BoJ is unlikely to meet its inflation target next fiscal year because the collapse in oil prices puts downward pressure on consumer prices.
Amari spoke one day after the gov't said it expects overall consumer prices to rise 1.4% in fiscal 2015, well below the BOJ's target of 2% inflation.
His comments are the clearest sign yet that the BOJ will either have to expand monetary policy further to meet its price target on schedule, or possibly allow more time for oil prices to rise.
"Our forecasts show it will be difficult for the BOJ to achieve its price target due to falling oil prices," Amari told reporters.
"Lower oil prices aren't necessarily a bad thing for the economy, but they are a negative factor for the BOJ's price target." It is up to the BOJ to make its own decisions about the outlook for prices, Amari said.
BoJ's purchases of government debt n risk assets helped push down bond yields n initially boosted inflation expectations. However, the outlook for prices started to weaken last year as consumer spending lost momentum after an increase in sales tax. The BOJ has argued that consumer prices would accelerate again due to rising wages n a tight labour market, but this outcome is looking less likely in the face of an oil glut which could push Japan's consumer prices lower. Oil futures are the weakest since 2009.
U.S. dollar briefly dropped to 117.75 in Asian morning due to initial decline in Nikkei-225 index together with Bloomberg reported that the currency's best forecaster says he hasn't recommended selling it in a few months with lower oil prices helping Japan's trade balance.
However, the greenback rebounded on short-covering as Japanese equities pared some of early losses n Nikkei-225 futures turned into +ve territory (currently rose 75 points to 16885).
This morning bids were located at 117.80-75 n more at 117.60 with stops only seen below 117.50. On the upside, offers were tipped at 118.20-30 n 118.40-50.
In other news, Japanese five-year government bond yields fell to zero for the first time on record as central bank easing and slumping commodity prices drive demand for bonds across the globe. A record surplus of deposits over loans at Japanese banks is helping push government bond yields below zero as lenders funneling cash into the safest debt add to demand from the Bank of Japan's bond-buying stimulus.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jan 2015 01:57GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback remained under pressure in Asian morning due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index which fell by 138 points to 16950 following Tuesday's strong retreat in U.S. stock markets. U.S. dollar fell to an intra-day low at 117.50 in Tokyo morning before recovering briefly to 117.82.
Offers are now tipped at 117.80 and more at 118.00.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops is located at 117.50 but buying interest is noted at 117.30-20.
In other news, Bloomberg reported that "the plunge in the price of oil makes it increasingly uncertain whether the Bank of Japan will reach its 2 percent inflation target in the coming fiscal year, according to people familiar with the central bank's discussions.
The BOJ is considering cutting its price forecast for the year that starts in April, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
The BOJ is also mulling raising its growth outlook for the same period, the people said."
Wednesday will see the release of Japan's Machine Tool Orders, France's CPI, Italy's CI, euro zone industrial production, U.K.'s CB leading economic index, U.S.'s Exports, Imports, Retail Sales, Business Inventories and Fed's Beige Book.