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AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2014 02:15GMT
Euro rises above Friday's 1.2696 top in Asia as release of Sunday's stress tests report by the ECB on 130 banks showed no nasty surprises. Despite initial knee-jerk movement in Aust. on Monday (NZ was closed for a holiday), euro climbed in Asian morning after meeting buying interest at 1.2673.
Although consolidation with mild upside bias is likely ahead of European open and buying euro on dips is recommended, investors shud pay attention to the release of the important Ifo reports in European morning.
Ifo Institute will release its report on German business climate at 09:00GMT and market is expecting October's reading to be 104.3, slightly worse than the previous reading at 104.7.
Bids are noted at 1.2680-70 and around 1.2660 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.2650.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.2700-10 and further out at 1.2720/25 with mixture of offers n stops located just above 1.2750.
Bloomberg reported on Sun 25 lenders among the 130 banks including Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA failed a stress test led by the ECB, which showed the biggest capital hole in the region's banking system in Italy.
The ECB identified a total gap of 25 billion euros as of the end of 2013, most of which has now been raised by banks. Among lenders still in need of funds, Italy's Monte Paschi (BMPS) n Banca Carige SpA (CRG) must find a combined 2.9 bln euros between them, the ECB said.
None of Europe's largest banks were found lacking. No French, German or Spanish institutions were required to find more capital.
Lenders found to be deficient now have as many as nine months to fill gaps identified by the ECB, which is aiming to close the door on half a decade of financial turmoil in the euro region.
The results, on first impression, are "very positive" n should benefit some bank stocks on Mon, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.
AceTraderFx Oct 27: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Oct 2014 00:11GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.6073
55 HR EMA
1.6064
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
59
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.6186 - Last Tue's high
1.6131 - Wed's high
1.6104 - Mon's high (Aust.)
Support
1.6017 - Last Fri's low
1.5995 - Y'day's low
1.5966 - 70.7% r of 1.5875-1.6186
. GBP/USD - 1.6089 ... Although the pound extended previous week's up move fm Oct's 11-month trough at 1.5875 to 1.6186 last Tue, release of 'dovish' BoE minutes sent cable tanking to 1.6012, then 1.5995 Thur. Price managed to stage a short-covering rebound to 1.6099 due to usd's weakness in in NY morning on Fri.
. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, cable's aforesaid rebound fm 1.5875 to 1.6186 signals MT downtrend fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has made a temporary low at 1.5875 n subsequent retreat fm 1.6186 suggests consolidation with downside bias is envisaged this week, a daily close below 1.5995 wud signal correction is over, then weakness twd 1.5875 wud be seen, however, as both the hourly & daily indicators wud display 'bullish convergences' on next decline, reckon projected sup at 1.5820, being 61.8% proj. of MT fall fm 1.7192-1.6052 measured fm 1.6525, wud contain weakness. On the upside, abv 1.6186 (reaction high fm 1.5875) wud confirm MT decline fm 1.7192 has indeed made a temporary low, the gain to 1.6379 wud be seen, this is 38.2% r fm 1.7192.
. Today, w/end's hawkish comments by BoE's McCafferty sent cable briefly to 1.6104, n gain to 1.6140 may be seen but 1.6186 shud hold n yield retreat.
AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Oct 2014 08:21GMT
USD/JPY- ....... Despite initial gap-up open to a 2-week high of 108.37 in Aust. (NZ was closed for Labour Day holiday today), dlr's broad-based weakness in Asian morning pressured the pair to 107.86 b4 a recovery was seen ahead of European open.
As 108.09 has capped dlr's intra-day recovery, consolidation with nr term downside bias is in store. Dlr is likely to track intra-day swings in the Nikkei futures during European morning ahead of release of U.S. eco. data later in the day, these include U.S. services PMI, pending home sales and Dalla Fed mfg business index.
Offers are noted at 108.10/20 n more above with stops reported above 108.40, however, more offers are tipped at 108.55/65.
Initial bids are noted at 107.85-80 with stops below 107.75.
According to a poll published from Yomiuri on Sunday, public approval of PM Shinzo Abe's gov't slumped after the resignation of two high-profile cabinet ministers last week, adding more pressure on Abe as he struggles to turn around the Japanese economy.
Japan's biggest daily the Yomiuri surveyed 1,059 people by telephone on Fri n Sat n found support for Abe's gov't had fallen to 53% fm 62% in less than a month. Of those surveyed, 37% said they disapproved of the gov't, up fm a 30% disapproval rating in a previous poll on Oct 10.
In the biggest setback since he took office in December 2012, Abe lost two cabinet ministers on one day last week, complicating tough decisions on key policies, including whether to proceed with an unpopular sales tax hike n restarts of nuclear reactors shut down after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
AceTraderFx Oct 28: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Oct 2014 01:08GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Statement from BoJ Governor Kuroda, quote:
'-Japan's economy is showing some weakness mainly in output but positive cycle remain intact
-job, income conditions improving steadily
-private consumption solid as a trend with non-durable goods sales emerging from sales tax hike pain
-Tankan shows many firms expect effect of sales tax hike to be temporary
-Japan's economy likely to continue moderate recovery with effect of tax hike seen easing
-consumer inflation slowing somewhat due to recent energy price falls but likely to hover around 1-1.5 pct for time being
-QQE exerting intended effects, japan on steady path toward meeting boj's price target
-Japan only half way in meeting boj's price target
-won't hesitate to adjust policy should risks threaten achievement of boj's price target
-negative yields seen in boj's short-term bill auctions are sign of how powerful effect of boj's monetary easing is
-BOJ is not trying to guide yields to negative territory, it is only consequence of its stimulus policy
-yen weakness so far has been positive for Japan's economy '
Tuesday will see the release of Japan's retail sales, German import index, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, CaseShiller house price and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Oct 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Oct 2014 02:08GMT
USD/JPY...... Despite dlr's volatile trading in Tuesday's NY session after release of mixed U.S. eco data, price rebounded after meeting renewed buying at 107.70 and traded firmly against the yen in NY afternoon.
Dlr rose above European high of 108.17 to a fresh intra-day high of 108.19 near NY close and then marginally higher to 108.23 in Tokyo morning on the rally in Nikkei index (currently up 1.36% to 15538).
Although cross-selling in yen on improved risk appetite after yesterday's rally in global stocks suggests buying on dips is recommended, sharp gain above Monday's 2-week peak at 108.37 is not envisaged as market participants are reluctant to enter large position ahead of the release of FOMC statement later in NY afternoon today.
The Fed is widely expected to announce the end of its bond-buying program today, though uncertainty as to whether or not the statement will contain dovish or hawkish language surrounding interest rates. As no press conference is scheduled, market won't hear any comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
At present, bids are noted at 108.00-107.90 and around 107.80 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 107.60.
On the upside, offers are placed at 108.30-40 and then 108.50 with stops located just above 108.70, however, heavy selling interest from various accounts is touted in the 108.90-109.10 region.
News from WSJ about today's Fed's monetary policy announcement, the newspaper reported that Federal Reserve officials meeting Tuesday and Wednesday are virtually certain to end their latest bond-buying program, but they won't be retiring the policy for good.
Their recent comments show bond purchases are now an established part of the Fed's policy tool kit that they could employ again in times of deep economic trouble.
Several Fed policy makers said they think the latest round of Treasury n mortgage-bond purchases, begun in late 2012, helped lower long-term interest rates, boosting hiring and growth. But they also see a high bar to launching more bond buying (QE) seeing it as a last resort to use only if very low interest rates n communications efforts were to fail to reverse a sharply worsening economic outlook.
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said she wouldn't rule out more bond buying if needed, and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer deemed the program 'largely successful.'
Many investors expect the Fed to start raising its benchmark short-term rate from near zero in the middle of next year, a view some top officials have encouraged.
Wednesdaywill see the release of Japan's industrial output, New Zealand ANZ business outlook, U.K. mortgage approval and mortgage lending, Canada's producer prices, FOMC rate decision and Fed's monetary policy statement.
AceTraderFx Oct 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Oct 2014
EUR/USD - ...... Although the single currency rallied to 1.2765 in NY morning after disappointing U.S. durable goods orders, price retreated briefly to 1.2721 as U.S. Conference Board reported upbeat consumer confidence index (October's reading at 94.5 was the highest in 7 years), which was boosted by a more favorable assessment of the current job market and business conditions.
Later, euro recovered to 1.2753 and then moved sideways for rest of the NY session and well into Wednesday's Asian morning.
As all eyes are on the release of Fed's monetary policy announcement and the following Fed statement later today at 18:00GMT, range trading is envisaged in Asia n Europe.
France will release consumer confidence for Oct at 07:45GMT and economists expect the reading to be slightly better at 87 compares to 86 in previous month, however, it should have little impact on euro.
Offers are noted at 1.2750-60 and then 1.2780/85 with stops emerging above 1.2900, whilst bids are placed at 1.2710-00 and around 1.2680 with stops emerging further out below 1.2650.
Last night despite euro's early brief rise to 1.2764 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods data, the single currency subsequently retreated on the robust U.S. consumer confidence. Offers was tipped at 1.2750-60 and more at 1.2780. On the downside, some bids was located at 1.2720-10 with stops building up below 1.2700.
AceTraderFx Oct 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Oct 2014 07:07GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Despite a brief drop to 1.2729 in Asian morning, euro edged higher ahead of European open on renewed broad-based weakness in greenback n briefly climbed to 1.2747.
Although marginal gain above yesterday's high of 1.2765 may be seen, range trading below 1.2800 level is envisaged as investors are awaiting the FOMC monetary policy announcement n statement.
Offers are now noted at 1.2750-60 n then 1.2780/85 with stops emerging above 1.2900, whilst bids are touted at 1.2710-00 n around 1.2680 with stops emerging further out below 1.2650.
AceTraderFx Oct 29: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Oct 2014 00:17GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9477
55 HR EMA
0.9490
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
38
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with a neutral bias
Resistance
0.9593 - Oct 10 high
0.9559 - Last Wed's high
0.9521 - Y'day's high
Support
0.9446 - Y'day's low
0.9398 - Last Tue's low
0.9360 - Oct 15 low
. USD/CHF - 0.9468... Dlr went through a roller-coaster session on Tue as despite initial rise to rebound to 0.9511 in European morning, price tumbled to session low of 0.9446 in NY morning after weak U.S. durable goods data. Dlr briefly bounced to 0.9481 on upbeat U.S. consumer confidence b4 stabilising.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's weakness to 0.9446 suggests the recovery fm Oct's low at 0.9360 has possibly ended at 0.9559 last Wed n choppy trading with mild downside bias wud be seen for marginal fall. On the bigger picture, as dlr's rally fm 0.9360 to 0.9559 suggests the 1st leg of correction fm Oct's 1-year peak at 0.9690 has ended there, reckon sup 0.9436, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r shud remain intact n yield another rebound later. Abv 0.9521 wud indicate the pullback fm 0.9559 has ended n retain bullishness for a retest of said res, break, wud extend marginally but daily res at 0.9693 shud hold this week.
. Today, we are holding a long position entered y'day for recovery to 0.9225 n only below 0.9436 wud abort intra-day bullishness n risk further weakness to 0.9398, break wud confirm recovery fm 0.9360 has ended, 0.9360 later.
AceTraderFx Oct 30: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Oct 2014 02:13GMT
USD/JPY - .....statement from PM Abe this morning:
"need to flexibly review composition of GPIF's pension fund management reflecting end to deflation;
won't use pension fund management directly to boost stock prices, but change in allocation will indirectly help Japan's economy.
whether Japan can return growth path in Jul-Sep quarter will be key on if proceed with next sales tax hike to 10%;
it's true sales tax hike weakens consumers' purchasing power, must scrutinise how it effects prospects for ending deflation;
economic growth is continuing as a whole;
want to look at various data for Jul-Sep in deciding if to compile extra budget to stimulate economy."
Thursday will see the release of RBNZ rate decision, Australia's HIA new home sales, import and export prices, U.K. Nationwide house prices, Swiss KOF indicator, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, economic sentiment and final consumer confidence, U.S. jobless claims, GDP in Q3 and core PCE, German CPI and HICP.
AceTraderFx Oct 30: More updates on Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Oct 2014 03:27GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although the Dow staged a recovery on Wednesday after the FOMC announcement n ended the day down 31 points, the Nikkei rose to a 2-week high of 15666 in Tokyo trading. Some attributed to today's gain on Bloomberg report.
Japan's $1.2 tin pension fund will double its allocation target for local stocks, according to analysts, who've ratcheted up expectations for equity buying while sticking with projections for a reduction in bonds.
The GPIF will increase its domestic equity allocation to 24% of assets fm 12%, according to the median estimate of 12 fund managers. That's up fm 20% in a similar survey in May.
The Topix index soared 4% on Oct. 20 on a Nikkei newspaper report that the fund would set a 25% local-share target.
The Government Pension Investment Fund will increase its domestic equity allocation to 24 percent of assets from 12 percent, according to the median estimate of 12 fund managers
The greenback rallied to 108.96 in NY after upbeat FOMC statements judged the U.S. economy strong enough to end its 6-year long asset-purchase program by end of Oct.
Price ratcheted higher after meeting renewed buying interest at 108.75 in Australia n rose abv 109.00 level to a fresh 3-1/2 week high at 109.12 in Tokyo morning after comments fm Japan PM Abe (see our prev. report).
As dlr has maintained a firm undertone in Tokyo morning, suggesting buying dlr on dips in Asia is the way to go.
However, investors shud pay close attention to U.S. weekly jobless claims n advance Q3 GDP in NY morning as the readings may paint a mixed picture to recent U.S. economy n we may well see another volatile session in NY.
Bids are noted at 108.80-70 n around 108.50 with mixture of bids n stops noted further out at 108.30/25.
On the upside, cross-selling interest are placed at 109.20-30 with offers fm various accounts at 109.50-60 n then 109.75/80.