SYNERGY Trading Method - page 11
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Derk have you back tested it using the daily? I'm curious to what kind of results that would have. This might be just luck because it was my first using this strategy but there were a setup for the eur/cad I think maybe at 8:00 est when the new daily is formed on IBFX so I took it and deposited 211 pips friday before end of session. I'm not the most computer savy person in the world and to be honest do not know how to backtest a strategy or I would have already done so. Thanks for this info....Tim
Greets:
Based on Chris' post, I went back and ran some more tests. Although his seem to have the EURJPY a bit in front, all my tests have always pointed to the GBPUSD as being the leader.
So I loaded a number of currencies in my Velocity charts, and went back as far as it would download data. For H1 charts, I got:
H1 Charts, 118 bars / week
GBPUSD: 19 Jan, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 5646 pips, 16874 bars ~ 39 / week
EURJPY: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3560 pips, 16392 bars
EURUSD: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3427 pips, 16392 bars
GBPJPY: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3254 pips, 16391 bars
USDCHF: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 2920 pips, 16392 bars
USDJPY: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 2808 pips, 16391 bars
CADJPY: 14 Jul, 2006 - 5 Oct, 2007: 1195 pips, 7574 bars
EURGBP: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 152 pips, 16390 bars
AUDUSD: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -207 pips, 16392 bars
USDCAD: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -517 pips, 16390 bars
EURCHF: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -532 pips, 16392 bars
AUDCHF: 13 Jul, 2006 - 5 Oct, 2007: -849 pips, 7229 bars
GBPCHF: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -1159 pips, 16392 bars
CHFJPY: 8 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -1213 pips, 16392 bars
NZDUSD: 9 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -1616 pips, 16391 bars
AUDJPY: 7 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -1864 pips, 16392 bars
NZDJPY: 28 Jul, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -2177 pips, 13469 bars
EURCAD: 31 May, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -2960 pips, 14496 bars
AUDNZD: 27 May, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -5655 pips, 14453 bars
AUDCAD: 27 May, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -6554 pips, 14112 bars
EURAUD: 21 Jan, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: -7997 pips, 16392 bars
Not terribly impressive, but ok. Interesting part is that one would probably consider only trading the top 4, and, if relying on these number, maybe just the GBP with more lots.
Since the pound was so far ahead, I ran tests just for it on other timeframes:
H4 Charts, 30 bars / week
GBPUSD: 3 Apr, 2001 - 5 Oct, 2007: 9946 pips, 10333 bars ~ 28 / week
M30 Charts, 236 bars / week
GBPUSD: 28 Apr, 2006 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3392 pips, 17760 bars ~ 45 / week
M15 Charts, 472 bars / week (40.27
GBPUSD: 27 Dec, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 325 pips, 19009 bars ~ 28 / week
The M30 at 45 per week is a bit larger than the H1, possibly just because it does not go back as far in time, and there seems to be a commonality that it works better more recently. The M15 just seems to lose too much. All test I have tried with the M15 are not good.
But the one thing that I did confirm to my satisfaction is that Chris is right that turning UseSmallerExit off, and UseVolExpanding on works much better than the reverse.
Working on the EA now.
-Derkresult according indicator
Derek,
i found a good setting on the G/Y 4H
the results said 11560 pips for 13489 bars.
Settings for synergyIndicator
and results availible in screen shots.
but dont know if this resembles a good result. considering drawdown. could you survive this?
God's bless
Gerry
someone make an ea please with some trailing stop maybe.
Derk have you back tested it using the daily? I'm curious to what kind of results that would have. This might be just luck because it was my first using this strategy but there were a setup for the eur/cad I think maybe at 8:00 est when the new daily is formed on IBFX so I took it and deposited 211 pips friday before end of session. I'm not the most computer savy person in the world and to be honest do not know how to backtest a strategy or I would have already done so. Thanks for this info....Tim
Question is could you do this with EURCAD every single week? If you have taken trades from 6/15 to 9/10, you would have generated a loss of around 565pips.
GBPUSD: 19 Jan, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 5646 pips, 16874 bars ~ 39 / week
EURJPY: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3560 pips, 16392 bars
EURUSD: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3427 pips, 16392 bars
GBPJPY: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 3254 pips, 16391 bars
USDCHF: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 2920 pips, 16392 bars
USDJPY: 16 Feb, 2005 - 5 Oct, 2007: 2808 pips, 16391 bars
CADJPY: 14 Jul, 2006 - 5 Oct, 2007: 1195 pips, 7574 barsIt's funny how different backtesting can be. Unfortunately FXDD does not offer 1H candles for the years 2005 or 2006. They all start in May 2007 ...
But still these results look good. On the 1H chart, 480 bars are 1 month (24h * 20 days). That means ...
GBPUSD: ~ 160 pips per month (5646 pips / 16874 bars * 480)
EURJPY: ~ 104 pips per month
EURUSD: ~ 100 pips per month
GBPJPY: ~ 95 pips per month
USDCHF: ~ 85 pips per month
USDJPY: ~ 82 pips per month
CADJPY: ~ 75 pips per month
Trading those pairs brought you an average gain of ~ 700 pips per month in long-term backtesting. That's more than enough.
i found a good setting on the G/Y 4H
the results said 11560 pips for 13489 bars.Mescalito, I still testing different time frames. But the results vary not much. Have a look at your result:
11560 pips / 13489 bars * 120 = ~ 102 pips per month (only 7 pips more than on the 1H timeframe)
But a higher timeframe always means a higher risk. Just remember that the haClose is important. In times of a volatile market you have bigger losses when you are trading the false direction. On the 1H timeframe you always get out earlier ...
Just have a look at the GBPUSD in August on the 4H timeframe: 2 very big losses: 123 pips and 116 pips. That's really hard to sit out. The biggest loss on the 1H timeframe was about 60 pips. That's still too much but better than on the 4H. I think the strategy is not made for bigger timeframes. Trading GBPUSD on a daily chart, for example, brings only ~ 65 pips per month.
I think it's better to reduce the losing trades with other indicators. I'm still busy with looking for the "Price Action Volatility" indicator. I haven't found it until now.
hi
Question is could you do this with EURCAD every single week? If you have taken trades from 6/15 to 9/10, you would have generated a loss of around 565pips.
I think each month has different performance we should make it better at least 40 % or more ...using this system ...
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Forex Indicators Collection
Volatility Indicator
I'm still busy with looking for the "Price Action Volatility" indicator. I haven't found it until now.
You could investigate this volatility indicator...
Regards,
Chrisstoff
Thank you, Chrisstoff. In deed, this indicator looks very well. I did some manual backtests with Chaikin's Volatility indicator the last days.
I looked over some charts and it seems that it filters out more losing trades with lower volatility than the Bollinger Expansion...
Derk, is it possible to add this indicator to the trading rules: Buy or Sell only when volitility is > 0?
I think it's really worth to compare them ...
I would also consider adding a condition that will only place trades in the direction of the 4hr trend. I think everyone would agree that going against the trend has much more risk.
Derk, I do not write code but how difficult is it to add a condition that would only place trades after looking at the 4hr trend; check for 2 full 4hr blue bars for long position and check for 2 full 4hr red bars for short position ? thx mike
Question is could you do this with EURCAD every single week? If you have taken trades from 6/15 to 9/10, you would have generated a loss of around 565pips.
Well Rondo I don't know. That would depend on how I interpret the signal. When I manually trade a system alot of discretion goes into it because I don't take every signal a pair gives just the ones that meet my criteria and I feel have a greater probablity of being successful. Your question is kind of like asking will it rain tommorrow? Good luck trading this week....Tim
PS Also that was my very first trade with this system.....