My GBP Trading recommendations & Journal - page 7

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cementman:
I think you should make a good website and the people could subscribe via it also you could make "how to use my levels","what did the levels do historicaly","how to subscribe"..you know all of that stuff like what did those numbers did if you would've followed them. For the Dow and dollar most of the weekends i do these correlations but to tell you the truth never on those 2 so thanks. but because i was a futures trader one day it was my job to study correlations and spreads on inner markets and outer ones like corn march and december also gold and crude oil you know such things now forex is less headache but its good to have the knowledge on the back of your mind.

Hi!

When I won't make money trading FOREX, I'll have my website.

 

Barca

I agree with Nina,that (being too a Barca supporter )this year is going to be tough,all is bet on 4 matches and the psychological strength is not there..we could try a correlation with IBEX or Bcn stock exchange index ..or even better some Brazilian magic..

Cementman,I enjoy your thread,I was directed to it by Malcik,and I believe you are doing a good job,and courageous,just posting your trades,naked,in advance..

Frankly,I thought that your last trade was going to be problematic,and I am glad it was not,though the mid term trend is down,as you rightly signalled,I was waiting for a correction to be produced at a slightly higher level,since it didn`t,I just didn`t enter and I am very happy that you exited your shorts in the Blue..

The negative correlation that Nina rightly pointed out,betweeen the Dow and the USD has been going for some time..with some room for smoothing ,basically Dow Up Usd down..let`s see for how long

And,Nina..we will always have Messi,this guy really doesn`t feel the pressure,

and is a genius player..so,let`s committ the cardinal sin of trading,but in football...HOPE..LONG BARCA,SHORT Real madrid

Regards

 

Great, this thread is not dead Sorry to interrupt you guys but I'd like to get part of our discussion back to the methodology.

What are your opinions on the three systems -- Vanessa, Tlatomi and Fozzy -- as far as their robustness goes? I have a little aversion against the 'special' indicators that have been created for MT4 exclusively for the sole reason that MT4 is a free piece of software and therefore anyone can afford to use it.

As Simba knows, I'm very afraid of overfitting and using fancy indicators with a dozen of settings parameters. Overfitting is like a nightmare to me. The worst thing I can imagine is that I find a system suitable for me, do a backtest on it, become very confident with it. Then I'll start trading it live, and that minute it will just turn around and start losing money. I will have a strong discipline because of the confidence gained through the backtest and therefore won't stop trading, and eventually lose my account.

That's why I've gone through some kind of a mental transition that makes me comfortable only when using the very basic indicators. I could use a more complicated tool only if I understood the science behind it very well -- like for example digital filters and non-lagging indicators (but unfortunately I don't understand it yet).

The three systems mentioned in this thread either use special indicators or they use the basic ones but too many of those. I have doubts about its robustness and endurance. On the other hand, Woodie's CCI to which I've dedicated a few hours of studying in past days looks a lot simpler and more robust (it works just everywhere and has been traded for more than 30 years). The patterns have underlying explanations of what they mean and why it makes them profitable. And plus, they are discretionary which makes them more durable because they can't be automated. They are also discretionary in an easy way that is understandable and tradable for a beginner as well, and it should be a good start for training his market perception.

Cementman, please don't take this as a critique... I just want to know your opinions and arguments on this issue and participate in a productive discussion

Thanks!

 

Robustness

Great, this thread is not dead Sorry to interrupt you guys but I'd like to get part of our discussion back to the methodology.

What are your opinions on the three systems -- Vanessa, Tlatomi and Fozzy -- as far as their robustness goes? I have a little aversion against the 'special' indicators that have been created for MT4 exclusively for the sole reason that MT4 is a free piece of software and therefore anyone can afford to use it.

As Simba knows, I'm very afraid of overfitting and using fancy indicators with a dozen of settings parameters. Overfitting is like a nightmare to me. The worst thing I can imagine is that I find a system suitable for me, do a backtest on it, become very confident with it. Then I'll start trading it live, and that minute it will just turn around and start losing money. I will have a strong discipline because of the confidence gained through the backtest and therefore won't stop trading, and eventually lose my account.

That's why I've gone through some kind of a mental transition that makes me comfortable only when using the very basic indicators. I could use a more complicated tool only if I understood the science behind it very well -- like for example digital filters and non-lagging indicators (but unfortunately I don't understand it yet).

The three systems mentioned in this thread either use special indicators or they use the basic ones but too many of those. I have doubts about its robustness and endurance. On the other hand, Woodie's CCI to which I've dedicated a few hours of studying in past days looks a lot simpler and more robust (it works just everywhere and has been traded for more than 30 years). The patterns have underlying explanations of what they mean and why it makes them profitable. And plus, they are discretionary which makes them more durable because they can't be automated. They are also discretionary in an easy way that is understandable and tradable for a beginner as well, and it should be a good start for training his market perception.

Cementman, please don't take this as a critique... I just want to know your opinions and arguments on this issue and participate in a productive discussion

..................................................................................................

Just check by testing if the robustness you require is the adequate one..

No system is perfectly robust,if it were ,its robustness will feedback into the loop destroying previous robustness and changing the system`s results making it imperfect.

cementman hinted at what you need,just choose a system ,test it and STICK with it..trading results are derived from behaviour not from systems,behaviour is derived from beliefs..and if these comprise a need for absolute safety,they will impair your trading..and don`t forget the fundamentals

Regards

 

Guys sorry for being late..just wanted to tell you this thread wouldn't be nothing without your cntributions it's 1:30 after midnight and its been a long day so i'll try to answer every thing tomorrow..another thing is i can't describe my happiness that Simba also showed up here, and to give you a hint Malcik here is Simba's answer i wouldn't have said it better

"No system is perfectly robust,if it were ,its robustness will feedback into the loop destroying previous robustness and changing the system`s results making it imperfect.

cementman hinted at what you need,just choose a system ,test it and STICK with it..trading results are derived from behaviour not from systems,behaviour is derived from beliefs..and if these comprise a need for absolute safety,they will impair your trading..and don`t forget the fundamentals.

Thanx again Simba

 
 

the guy with the long posts like me ...

" I just want to say Simba I've read every word in your posts some times even when some one ask you about some thing and i read the answer i feel like if i wanted to answer that question i would've said the same as you maybe its telepathy "..

That is what i felt too when I saw your comments..and astonishing.. the "Amateurs built the Noah`s Ark..professionals built Titanic" is a sentence I often requote it to my non trading friends,when they doubt before a decision.

Regards

 

Very nice exchange of thoughts, ideas, and commentaries. Great work, cementman, Simba and others!

ENJOY!

fxcruiser

 

Simba thanks for your words its just that feeling you know when you read a book and from the first word you lock your room door and you end up reading the whole book and its midnight and you don't know why i think its chemistry between personalities or minds on the other hands some time you open a thread or a book and you say Naaaa i don't like it already. I'm really happy to hear that from you.

Well.. well fxcruiser is here 2 ..I don't know what to say guys all the great minds of our forum are visiting my humble thread thank you for your kind words.

 
danphx:
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I rarely post, but after receiving yesterday's statement from my managed account with Joseph Gasperoni and the Dynamite system he uses in his Super Futures Signals System, I feel compelled to inform you of recent events.

My statement that I received 18 hours ago showed a drawdown of over 50%. This happened in one day. Fortunately at 11pm my time in California, USA I was able to contact my broker to freeze my account from further trading.

I received an email today from admin@superfuturessignals explaining that the ea had malfunctioned and had resulted in terrible losses for the past two days. EA? I was never informed my funds were placed in an ea. Furthermore, I have no idea how the managed account performed last night/this am, but I wonder what rationale Joseph used to continue to trade a client's account after having drawn it down 50%. Fortunately, my account was locked out from him and I managed to cut losses.

My point is not to lament but to ask, how can a man who lost over 50% of clients' funds in less than two days post winning results on this forum?

danphx

did you see this post, it was in another thread..i'm not attacking any one here but thats why i don't like small TF systems and thats why i don't like 3,4 and 10 pips this is scalping and over all i don't like to be doing that by an EA that's like maximum risk..i do use small time frames but just to pick a good entry point after that i keep my eyes on the 4H mainly and even in that TF i keep an eye also on the daily and i go up to monthly to have the full image that controls my money and risk management so if i'm going with the over all trend my stops and my number of lots are different..i think Simba talked about that a lot in his threads.

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