Simbasystem-gbpusd - page 40

[Malcik]

SIMBA:
Hi Malcik,

Nice country you have.

I have been to Prague for the week end and I enjoyed it a lot(with the exception of the taxi drivers),specially the Pivo..and the people

Please be so kind to post the results of the test you did and its related settings(entry rule,exit rule,money management,etc)...Then I will be able to help you in detail.

I personally prefer the 1M when Chand and SATL are aligned,allowing for multiple entries and exits with 15/30 pips TP

I can not tell how long will it last,my feeling is that it will last a lot,since the concept it is based on-buy dips in uptrend,sell rallies in downtrend-has been along for decades

Simba

Hi Simba,

Thanks, that's great you've been to Prague. I come from Pilsen (about 100 km west of Prague) and study in Prague. Sorry to hear about the cab drivers, they're real pricks, they are famous for that... use subway Glad you enjoyed.

I'm attaching my backtest, hope it is understandable. The rules are as follows:

BUY:

Last complete H4 xpMA_v2SATL blue

Last complete H1 Chandelier light blue

Last complete M5 W%R below -95

SELL:

Last complete H4 xpMA_v2SATL red

Last complete H1 Chandelier light orange

Last complete M5 W%R above -5

We always enter with 2 positions

EXIT:

Fixed initial SL 50 pips

Exit signal: when SATL or Chandelier change their colors

First position fixed TP: 30 pips

Second position: at 30 pips SL moved to BE and we try to wait for exit signal

I avoided reentries that come shortly after the first entry (if it comes like a couple of hours later, I don't consider it reentry but a whole new trade) - I think, when we come to the end of a trend and before SATL and Chandelier tell us that, there can usually be 3-5 valid signals because of W%R wiggling around -95/-5 line. This adds up to a losing position. However, if we use same SL level as for the first position, the risk decreases and potential reward increases. I don't know about this issue, I would appreciate a hint. The backtest contains how much pips lower (long) / higher (short) we would enter by reentries and on the other tab also what would happen to our profits if we allowed for ONE reentry.

I used 50 pips initial SL instead of Chandelier... I think pretty often the price violates the Chand a little but then turns in our favor and turns out to be a winner. My feeling is that Chand is great indicator of trend (and therefore a good exit signal) but bad place to have our SL... Again, please discuss with me 50 pips seems best to me because it is bearable and the price almost always stays within this SL and therefore allows us to exit according to our exit signals which I think is more reliable.

I have an idea to leave the move of SL to BE at 30 pips but close the first position as late as at 50 pips of profit -> only an idea, not mentioned in the backtest.

Another idea is to use TTE (Trader's Trick Entry) by Joe Ross to enter. Joe Ross's trading style is totally different from this but I think it could help us avoid some losing trades. It means that when we get an entry signal, we don't enter immediately. We just put our BUYSTOP one pip above last high or SELLSTOP one pip below last low. If the price doesn't break it out (next high is lower than last high or next low is higher than last low), we move the stop to 1 pip above/below this last high/low. We move it three times, if it doesn't get broken out the third time, we forget that trade. You can read more about it at http://tradingeducators.com/the_traders_trick_entry/tte_signup.htm. The disadvantage is that it costs us some pips, the advantage is that when the price goes clearly against us, we can't enter and it keeps us off a losing trade. In backtest I didn't use TTE but there's a column that says how much pips better or worse off we would be had we used it.

Other than that, I think, the rules are the basic ones. First tab contains all trades at all times disregarding the news and stuff. It shows perfect SL, BE and PT generally, when avoiding to trade on Friday, when avoiding the news, and when avoiding nighttime trading. It also contains what Simba ConMan said about the trade and what if we exitted by W%R.

Second tab shows the trades that I would take - no trades around the news but trading at nighttime and also on Friday morning (till about 1 p.m. CET) and it shows the TTE and first reentry stuff, where I'm still not really sure.

(As far as ConMan, I think it can't be used together with SATL -- I would use only one of them. I didn't backtest it with ConMan exclusively because I couldn't with a black box without its source code Have to read the Hurst's book first To exit by W%R is also bad for M5 version, I think.)

It would be great if you could help me get moving again. Meanwhile I'll be testing the M1 version.

And, by the way, what do you mean by SATL and Chandelier 'aligned'? Do you have some more specific rules for this? You said you went for 15 to 30 pips of TP -- does that include spread and possible slippage? What slippage can I usually expect when trading Forex? This (slippage) is second thing I'm afraid of...

Thanks very much!

[Pippt]

Today a classical Simba system good trade

Please see the chart.

It's everything there

[SIMBA]

Malcik

Hi Malcik,

I like how your mind works,you are very systematic in your methodology

1-Prague: Well,I like to walk,Prague Old Town is small and I also negotiated an excellent price for a Limo for "longer and night" trips ,so the pricks were problematic only in the short term..as usual

2-Testing 5M:

First:My previous post was not directed against you..believe me...Just touched marginally something I would like(not specifically you) all "posters" to change,if you want,on your next posts..post any addition you want..and post the original system too,so that we can compare

Second:Actually you are contributing a lot..and if you think it could have been interesting for the other thread participants,to know the results of the 5M system,as it was explained,in addition to your modification`s results,could you please post them too ?

3-TTE: Very interesting,believe me,I started studying Joe Ross(with Joe Duffy "turning point analysis in price and time" I created a system that worked like clockwork..for 5 months) many years ago,I couldn`t find any systematic way of making money from it(I was trading Cotton,BP futures and T-BONDS then..),but I am sure there are a lot of Joe Ross concepts to be tested then applied to improve any system,he is a fantastic day trader..It will be interested to see if it improves the results versus the posted 5M system too

4-QUOTE"(As far as ConMan, I think it can't be used together with SATL -- I would use only one of them. I didn't backtest it with ConMan exclusively because I couldn't with a black box without its source code Have to read the Hurst's book first "

The SimbaConman is my creation,not Hurst`s..you will need to learn the Hurst book and John Ehlers books,and a lot of scientific papers on cycles theory,and spend many years on it..and then you will probably improve it ..By the way,it can be used with SATL...as somebody that PM with me the past week trough Yahoo messenger can attest..if he wants

5-QUOTE"To exit by W%R is also bad for M5 version, I think.)"

YES,MY FRIEND..VERY,VERY BAD..if you want I will explain why in my next post and also how you can test this kind of "theoretically perfect"-"really faulty" assumptions

6-QUOTE"It would be great if you could help me get moving again. Meanwhile I'll be testing the M1 version."+"And, by the way, what do you mean by SATL and Chandelier 'aligned'? "

They point in the same direction,my friend,both up,or both down..AND the Chand is "near"-sorry for my fuzzy logic here,it means no further away than 40 pips,preferably 10/20 pips away from price at entry signal-the entry price.

Believe me when I tell you that your systematic way of thinking is a plus for this thread(and will be for your trading ),so,please be kind enough to post your 1M testing results..if you want

Thanks

Simba

[SIMBA]

[Malcik]

SIMBA:
Hi Malcik,

I like how your mind works,you are very systematic in your methodology

1-Prague: Well,I like to walk,Prague Old Town is small and I also negotiated an excellent price for a Limo for "longer and night" trips ,so the pricks were problematic only in the short term..as usual

2-Testing 5M:

First:My previous post was not directed against you..believe me...Just touched marginally something I would like(not specifically you) all "posters" to change,if you want,on your next posts..post any addition you want..and post the original system too,so that we can compare

Second:Actually you are contributing a lot..and if you think it could have been interesting for the other thread participants,to know the results of the 5M system,as it was explained,in addition to your modification`s results,could you please post them too ?

3-TTE: Very interesting,believe me,I started studying Joe Ross(with Joe Duffy "turning point analysis in price and time" I created a system that worked like clockwork..for 5 months) many years ago,I couldn`t find any systematic way of making money from it(I was trading Cotton,BP futures and T-BONDS then..),but I am sure there are a lot of Joe Ross concepts to be tested then applied to improve any system,he is a fantastic day trader..It will be interested to see if it improves the results versus the posted 5M system too

4-QUOTE"(As far as ConMan, I think it can't be used together with SATL -- I would use only one of them. I didn't backtest it with ConMan exclusively because I couldn't with a black box without its source code Have to read the Hurst's book first "

The SimbaConman is my creation,not Hurst`s..you will need to learn the Hurst book and John Ehlers books,and a lot of scientific papers on cycles theory,and spend many years on it..and then you will probably improve it..By the way,it can be used with SATL...as somebody that PM with me the past week trough Yahoo messenger can attest..if he wants

5-QUOTE"To exit by W%R is also bad for M5 version, I think.)"

YES,MY FRIEND..VERY,VERY BAD..if you want I will explain why in my next post and also how you can test this kind of "theoretically perfect"-"really faulty" assumptions

6-QUOTE"It would be great if you could help me get moving again. Meanwhile I'll be testing the M1 version."+"And, by the way, what do you mean by SATL and Chandelier 'aligned'? "

They point in the same direction,my friend,both up,or both down..AND the Chand is "near"-sorry for my fuzzy logic here,it means no further away than 40 pips,preferably 10/20 pips away from price at entry signal-the entry price.

Believe me when I tell you that your systematic way of thinking is a plus for this thread(and will be for your trading ),so,please be kind enough to post your 1M testing results..if you want

Thanks

Simba

Hi Simba, thanks for your reply.

I got kind of scared after reading the first of your two posts. To make it clear: I don't consider myself a vulture and it is no intention of mine to become something like that. I used to be like that and fortunately it was early enough when I figured out I would lose a fortune with this kind of approach. I really would never want you to leave this thread. To me - and to a lot of other people who might not be posting, I'm sure - you've been one of the greatest inspirations, an extremely nice person, and a good mentor. It is a good insight into how the pros do this business. The more you reveal and the more honest you are with us, the better chance we have to succeed later, if managed correctly.

I've always thought that it is bad to just take someone's system and go ahead and trade it. I've thought that everybody has to find what suits him best and customize it in a for him tradable way. I've thought that everybody has to spend ages by backtesting and forward testing and thinking, that there's no Holy Grail to be found and blindly used. And if you think that your system is a Holy Grail, please tell us what led you to this conclusion because the system won't work forever and this way we could be able to find our own Holy Grail in future as well, when the current one stops working. I support the idea "way is more than objective". I don't want anyone to give me the objective because he won't be around forever and even if he was, I wouldn't do anything to deserve the objective. On the other hand, if he gives me the "way", I can reach the objectives on my own thanks to his teaching - I do something to deserve to win.

This thread is exceptional, most of other resources on the internet are pretty much just the objective, the destructive objective. The mentioned approach is what I like and the reason why I'm following this thread. This is the philosophy I thought you put into it but now I tried to show you my ideas and my humble effort just for discussion, yet you don't seem to have liked it.

Important: I'm not complaining about anything, I just would like to get things straight out to avoid any conflicts, because like you said, they lead to valuable people going away and that is the biggest loss I can imagine. I.e. just tell me what I did wrong and I'll do my best to fix it You said it wasn't directed at me - OK, I'm glad, but still I have a feeling that I could have done better at something

Now for the discussion:

I admit that I didn't really conduct a serious backtest on the Chand/50 pips issue. It was just my feeling after taking a couple of looks at the chart that Chand stopped us out of many potentially profitable trades. You also mentioned earlier that when the price is too close to Chand, we can just use time stop (remain in position if Chand stays on the correct side, get out if it changes color at top of an hour). So I just used it for any trades, not just when the price is too close. OK, I'll do a backtest with this rule, which is IMHO the only thing that I changed (all other changes are in extra columns for comparison - like you said). I'm sorry I didn't realize this earlier.

Other points - I guess we should carry on the discussion after I've conducted backtest of the original system, right?

W%R exits and ConMan filtering - whatever information you have to share, I'll be glad. I wrote my opinion, I will do it again after conducting the original system backtest.

Last thing - you said that 3 month of backtesting is nothing. 10 years is definitely more, but haven't the markets changed since? Here I would appreciate the discussion even more than in the other issues. I think it is very important to determine how long the backtest should be, how long the system will last, and how vulnerable it is. Whether it is nearly eternal system like Joe Ross's, or an aggresive system that can double my account in one month but then stop working (like Phoenix - I guess, I don't know much about it).

Very last thing - Simba, it would be great if you could post or PM a couple of other books that you recommend to read regarding the cycles theories. It is very interesting and I'm honestly willing to start studying it. Besides Hurst, what other books and papers do you recommend? What is the title of the book by Ehler that you mentioned?

The latest thing - thanks for your time to read my long posts and your kind words that are of a tremendous value to me. If it's OK with you, I'll keep working and posting, I'll improve the backtest and conduct one on M1 system. See you soon

[SIMBA]

Holy Grails part 2

Hi Malcik and all still interested,continuation of my previous post(I left because I had to trade)..

QUOTE" It was just my feeling after taking a couple of looks at the chart that Chand stopped us out of many potentially profitable trades."..

...Well,the after taking a couple of looks part is what you should,IMHO,erradicate from your thinking..test everything versus the previous standard,then WE will be able to learn.(I am not from a Royal family..so,WE stands for everybody interested in the thread..;) )

QUOTE"Other points - I guess we should carry on the discussion after I've conducted backtest of the original system, right? "...

...Yes,and ,please include,IN ADDITION,every other idea you might have tested,believe me ,my system is improvable-I am the first one interested in doing so,either by myself or with the cooperation of others,but ,please,post the original settings too,so that we can learn from comparison

QUOTE "W%R exits and ConMan filtering - whatever information you have to share, I'll be glad. I wrote my opinion, I will do it again after conducting the original system backtest."..

..Please see pic..Regarding ConMan and SATL..and will explain theory of " NOT %WR EXITS "in another post,the market is interesting today..

QUOTE "Last thing - you said that 3 month of backtesting is nothing. 10 years is definitely more, but haven't the markets changed since?"..

...Yes,they have..they have changed enough so that you can encounter a wide enough span of alternative situations to pitch your system against,and,if it survives..you can start thinking that you might have something.

My firm belief is that we should test with maximum history available,to be practical,minimum is 10 years for daily data and 1 and a half to 3 years for 4h data,and a minimum of 6 months for 1H data..and,also,sorry ..

.. but I am a kind of iconoclast here,you don`t need 90%+ modelling data,just OCHL,because any test done in spans below 1h will have an extremely high degree of noise..

I am not saying to avoid testing on below 1h tfs ,only saying that the core of your system must have a foundation above the 1h tf,then you can test on the lower tf,not for lowering the noise,but for potential interesting noisy entries and exits..let`s call it "favourable noise"

QUOTE " I think it is very important to determine how long the backtest should be, how long the system will last, and how vulnerable it is."....

..Backtest already explained,how long system will survive nobody knows,but do not have fear,if your system is based on a true concept(buy dips,etc,etc) and has the right "structure"(trend filter-in the right tf-,volatility stop+"favourable noise" entry) you can trade it for a long,long time,just check the cyclic model every 3 or 4 months and that`s all.The vulnerability issue is very well handled by money management and position size..and to know your acceptable risk and position size,you need a backtest that can tell you the pf,%w;%l,avw,..etc,so that you can estimate your kelly ratio and your(as near as possible to) 0% risk of ruin..

QUOTE "what other books and papers do you recommend? What is the title of the book by Ehler that you mentioned?".....

...ALL John Ehlers,specially "rocket science for traders" and "cybernetic analysis for stocks and futures"..and you can go to his website where you will, find,for free,a lot of papers on cyclic theory

www.mesasoftware.com

Please post your test results when you have them..if you want

Simba

[SIMBA]

Holy grails

Hi Malcik,and anybody else that is interested..

QUOTE"I've always thought that it is bad to just take someone's system and go ahead and trade it."..... Yes,it is and you are right to design your own system,the one which,first works and second feels comfortable to you

QUOTE:"there's no Holy Grail to be found and blindly used. And if you think that your system is a Holy Grail, please tell us what led you to this conclusion "...My system is no Holy Grail,I never thought it was nor I proclaimed it to be

MOST IMPORTANT QUOTE:" This is the philosophy I thought you put into it but now I tried to show you my ideas and my humble effort just for discussion, yet you don't seem to have liked it."...

.. Please believe me,I have liked it,and still do..the only thing I did not like was the fact that you didn`t include the original settings to compare with,and that it was based mainly on 3 months backtest(I understand this period stems from the limited backtesting capabilities of MT4 platform when you want to use 1M or 5M settings..),you know,when I see somebody disregard-without any serious empirical reason- one of the few useful indicators-IMHO-that we have..I start thinking "faulty reasoning,faulty reasoning..;) "..So,please feel free to post your own ideas,suggestions and variations..and try to include the original settings,so that by comparison,we can learn

Malcik,your systematic thinking is a plus for this,and every thread you decide to participate into,I personally do not have anything against you,on the contrary,the more I analyze your posts,the more I respect your thinking ways..it is just that when I see somebody,not you..you know who I am talking about,acting as a vulture I start getting angry at him and his "probable" associates..and the continuous references in your posts to "when we come to the end of a trend ","if we use same SL level "..told me you were not alone(either this or you are a member of some Royal family,and thus can adopt the plural form to refer to yourself..;) )..Probably it was my paranoid levels on overdrive,so,forget about it...

Will continue in a few hours

Simba

[Malcik]

Simba, thanks so much for your comments. I knew you wouldn't let me down Everything is clear now. I'll post my further backtests as soon as I have them. Meanwhile, take care!

[Pippt]

Another successful trade

Another sucessful trade from Simbasystem today morning.

Please see the chart.

Best regards.

[SIMBA]

Pippt:
Another sucessful trade from Simbasystem today morning.

Please see the chart.

Best regards.

Hi Pippt

Yes,you are right,this was a successful 5M and 1M too entry...There have been subsequent entries in the 1M tf @ around 1.9705/15 that,for the moment are not yet successful,though they are still open...until the Chandelier or the SATL say so..;)

I don`t know exactly why ,but I am getting the feeling that we will see cable above 1.9750 today or tomorrow morning,and that we are approaching a reversal area,both in price and time,in the next 48 hours,probably 24..we will see,and I will be extremely careful regarding open positions tonight

Regards

Simba