today M5 gbp give a very perfect signal.
Hi Simba, thanks for your nice comments, they are encouraging. I'll be looking forward to your other comments and advices regarding the backtest. I'll hold on with further backtesting until then and will use that time to finish reading last three chapters of book by Mark Douglas "The Disciplined Trader" It's a great book, IMHO.
Thanks to you for the effort you are putting into this thread..
Disciplined trader is an exceptional book,as is "Enhancing trader performance"
by Brett N Steenbarger..get it if you can it is extremely useful,but first exercise your discipline and finish(and apply ) the Disciplined trader..
Regarding backtests what I would suggest for the near future is more or less the following :
Money Management:1 full lot per 2k usd in account is 97 to 1 leverage appprox,nd this is too much..try 1 lot per 10k usd in account,it is high,but I think the account will not self destroy,and,if it does,try 1 lot per 20k in account
1-Test same rules on 1M tf with Tp 1 single lot from 0.5 distance to Chandelier stop to 3.5(example:short at 1.9585 ,Chand @ 1.9625,then Tp equal to "20,40,60..140 pips),in steps of 0.5..If you want to get 2+ years of 1m 90% quality data (you can convert to 5,15,30,60,240..,etc,keeping the 90% quality ) just tell me and will post the link..then,after this..
2-Test new idea that probably has crossed several minds in these thread..A-forget about Satl,What would happen,same system,1M..if you want 5M too ok, only with Chandelier both as a stop and as a trend detector,the rest of rules the same of the "best previous test" to compare..B-Same as A but with the addition of an automatic entry at Chandelier Trend change to be either B1-kept open until new trend change or B2-exited at best previous best exit(so,we have to allow for 2 entries and exits ,because we will enter again at the usual%R entry)...then,after this..
3-Test variant of previous new idea..Why consider trend has changed when closed 4h Satl changes colour(actual system)?..Why consider trend has changed when Chand changes colour(previously mentioned new idea ) ?..What happens if we consider that trend changes when Chand has changed to down/up AND price(1m,5m close is ok) is below blue SATL or above red Satl..we will probably improve the system,but we have to test because what gives me the creeps is the potential losses in low volatility range trades..
I understand this is lot of work,so,if anybody else can help you and you have any suggestions about how could I do so,please inform..
Nice readings..and have a good week end
Hi heaven ,
If you took it..congratulations,and enjoy the related rewards
Have a nice week end
Will you trade this signal ?
I would like to make this question to you:
4 H SATL down, 1H ChandelierStop down
Please read my post on the SimbaConMan.
4 H SATL down, 1H ChandelierStop down
Hi Pippt ,
Congratulations for your excellent ConMan post..
1-I will give you the most sincere answer I can:I did not take the signal,and the reason why,as I told you in our IM chat on Friday ,is included and expanded in my latest ConMan post..
2-Trading is an art(think jazz music jam session ),Good art performance needs a "mechanic technique"(instrument technique,rythm,partiture..)almost perfect knowledge by the performer..then you can deviate from the partiture,and start a jam session with the market..that hopefully will end in an applause from your account statement..;)..
3-If you already have started to integrate the knowledge of simbasystem,ConMan,Hurst..as I think you have,you can-AND SHOULD-deviate from the pure mechanical rules..For these people that still do not know ,by rote,how to use the mechanics of Simbasystem,I will recommend to keep trading them (on demo),on a strictly mechanical procedure..and to keep learning the Hurst and ConMan methods,also on demo,and also mechanically,until one day you hear and feel the "click" and start to see how both systems integrate..and then you will have the exhilarating feeling of knowing what the market most probable course of action is ,and what are the best entry and exit points to profit from it..of course you will still make mistakes,but your trading results will reflect a positive change...probably
4-Don't get set into one form, adapt it and build your own, and let it grow, be like water. Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. If you put water in a cup it becomes the cup, if you put into a bottle it becomes the bottle. You put water into a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.....
When there is freedom from mechanical conditioning, there is simplicity. The classical trader is just a bundle of routine, ideas and tradition. If you follow the classical pattern, you are understanding the routine, the tradition, the shadow — you are not understanding yourself...
A good trader does not become tense... but ready. Not thinking yet not dreaming.. ready for whatever may come... A trader has to take responsibility for himself and face the consequences of his own doing....
If you have no technique, there is no rigid pattern because the word "You" does not exist. When the market expands You contract and when he contracts, You expand. And when there is an opportunity, "You" do not trade, "It" trades all by itself.....
A trader who drills exclusively to a set pattern of trading is losing his freedom. He is actually becoming a slave to a choice pattern and feels that the pattern is the real thing. It leads to stagnation because the way of trading is never based on personal choice and fancies, but constantly changes from moment to moment, and the disappointed trader will soon find out that his "choice routine" lacks pliability. There must be a "being" instead of a "doing" in trading. One must be free. Instead of complexity of form, there should be simplicity of expression....
Art is the expression of the self. The more complicated and restricted the method, the less the opportunity for expression of one's original sense of freedom. Though they play an important role in the early stage, the techniques should not be too mechanical, complex or restrictive. If we cling blindly to them, we shall eventually become bound by their limitations.
Hope it is clear now
For your info, take a look at the xpma ver.6 set to indicator 7(JMA) set to period 13.
This is the JMA indicator. Found it gives sometimes an earlier and clearer signal then the SATL indicator.
Will be using this signal instead of SATL to determine when trend will change. Will let you know how it works out.
Thanks for your kind intention,contributing with your suggestion..
Unfortunately I have to ask you to "show proof",please do not misunderstand me,it is very possible that you are right ..And if you want to know for sure go to one of the EA threads,started by CEO..it is MULTIxpmaEA ,you will see that you can test with this EA any combination of timeframes..for sma,ema,jma,satl..even for change of slope(my system) or crossovers..it is an unbelievable tool for which we all should be grateful to CEO and Ralph Ronquist..and I have been extensively testing for 1 week..and still have a lot of work to do before posting my results..so,if you really want to keep contributing,why don`t you try it,on your assumption,just compare SATL4h vs JMA 13 on 4h,entry and exit on the "1" variation(when you check the EA,you will seee that "1" means change of slope)? And then post your results on this thread..now we have a tool for extensively testing,and improving our assumptions..so,we should use it to improve this and everyother MA based system
As a preliminary result,for GBPUSD,I would say that SATL 4H is exceptional for trend definition..in the last months,not so much in a few years period.
Also,as a preliminary result,both SATL and FATL(I modified the EA to be able to use it with FATL too) on a daily tf,give practically the same results,with 1000 pips stop and TP(so,practically a reversal system) and 5 lots pr 50k of account..starting in 1999,until the past week(so,16+ years ,you end up with +500k in account..just using them as a full system,with no aditional indicator)..Basically that means ,for me, that on the 1D tf they both are exceptional trend "definers"
The obvious question is ..why don`t use them both..I tried and the tests told me that no way man,instead of having the best of both worlds,we had the worse(still profitable)..as it happened when using SATL,FATL COMBINATIONS OF 4H +1D..They don`t improve the results..
One potential problem is the 28% or 35% modelling quality..I do not think it is a real problem for testing on 4h 1D tf,but it can be on below 1h tfs..and by the way,for GBPUSD,using 1H(or below ) SATL,FATL,whatever is a losing proposition in the mid term..If you think that being long/short when 1D+4h+1h SATL,FATL,JMA,whatver combination ..point in the same direction..sorry it is not so(you will lose money,as a preliminary result),just stay with 1D,or 4h for SATL(and possibly HMA and JMA with34/45 settings,phase 0,could be extremely useful too)..Also,the results ,though similar,differ between GBPUSD and USDCHF(4H is better on USDCHF that on GBPUSD..but not so for the past few months..so,TESTING ASSUMPTIONS IS ESSENTIAL)
Please understand that when I test this smas,satls,etc as a standalone ,what I am trying to achieve is to find the one (with its settings and related tf) that gives us the best edge..SO THAT WE CAN USE AS A TREND "DEFINER"..and then improving on it by using additional indicators
Systematic testing requires a lot of work,and for testing below 1h tfs we need higher quality data,I am on it now,but I will need a few more days(probably some weeks) to have some "enough quality to be posted" results..
If somebody wants to participate,we can post our results either on this thread or on CEO`s and Ralph Ronquist thread..which I would prefer since it is the right thing to do,then from these tested results we can start deciding if we use SATL,FATL,JMA or whatever for trend definition,or even if we want to change to "crossover" definition of trend..this takes time
Hope somebody likes my thinking and decides to contribute..we have,thanks to this EA ,the potential to improve an already good system..and I particularly will use this opportunity as much as I can
NOTE: Another long post by me, nothing connected with SimbaSystem, its rules or anything else, just my feelings, my situation, my thoughts and questions regarding the philosophy of and approach to trading. If you are not interested, just skip this post and save your time
Thanks for your great posts. First to the one directed at Pippt:
It is great that you shared with us your thoughts about trading. I'm getting to similar conclusions. Not that I'm mature enough to be able to feel the market and do trading as art, I'm definitely not. I've just been able to begin to grasp the idea that this "art" philosophy of trading is where the real money is to be made.
Unfortunately, there are a few limitations. I still have to go to school. At age of 20 it wouldn't be wise for me to drop out of college and rely on trading as my job for my entire life. I definitely want to trade my whole life, still I want to have my college degree finished and go to regular job. Let's be honest, by trading we are not really helping anyone, at least not in a way that we could see, touch etc. Yes, we are contributing to liquidity in the markets, we work as insurance companies, we are part of markets, and with no markets not very many things could work the way they do in everyone's everyday lives. And the discipline, risk, capital etc. are things we have to be able to bear and the possible extreme financial reward is therefore fair. This job is just not for everyone, only for the best. Furthermore, we can do charity stuff, which is definitely what I intend to do the minute I do my first withdrawal from my trading account, if there ever is some significant leftover profit to be withdrawn. I believe this is my destiny. Still I'd like to see myself going to regular job, to meet people, to see them getting better thanks to me, to make a tangible difference in the world. I study economics and that could by the way very well go together with the charity stuff - people in the world are starving because of simple economic and social reasons. There's nothing more to it.
Why I'm writing this? Because this is the reason for which I have to be the "EA guy". During trading hours I'm at school and at night I like to sleep. EA is the only way I can trade. Position entries are not for me because I, as a student, don't have enough capital for them. Second, I, at least while learning, like to see some partial results (good or bad) in days or weeks, not in months or, more likely, years. For those reasons, my idea was to study market cycles theory based on the books you told us about. I'd like to be able to do the art NOT of trading itself BUT of designing different indicators and EA's at different times, reading the daily and H4 charts, and determining what EA to use this month, what next month etc., and perhaps also to which sides to take the trades to (long/short only). Simply said, I'd like to be a good artist reading the weekly and monthly situations in the markets, determining the right methodology of trading during those times, and let the computer do the minute-to-minute work.
The reason is nothing else than the college. What would you do if you were me, Simba? What would anyone else do? I'll be glad to hear your comments.
Second, the post directed at ericbach:
I just have one question regarding what you wrote: how ready do you think SimbaSystem is for live trading? Are you trading it live? Or are you trading a modification? As I wrote before, I have never traded live. Since this system is the one I'm most familiar with, I'd like to read your honest opinion on how ready the system is. I like this system, I trust it. I only have a couple more backtest to do which I can do in terms of days. Then I'd like to go live with microlots and later on, when I feel I'm ready for next step, I can upgrade to minilots etc. I don't really want to wait months before going live. I believe the markets move much faster than that and with this kind of approach I think I would never feel ready enough to go live. Everyone, how long does it take you to employ a new system or a new modification? Please comment.
Simba, thanks for your spending valuable time with us. I've said it already and I say it again: you are a great mentor and I'm never going to be able to thank you enough for your time and effort. Hope you enjoy doing it, I don't want you to go away
As far as my backtesting, I read your comments and try to finish the first step by Tuesday. Unfortunately, I've been a little sick this weekend and therefore basically didn't advance at all
Have good one!
It is great that you shared with us your thoughts about trading. I'm getting to similar conclusions. Not that I'm mature enough to be able to feel the market and do trading as art, I'm definitely not. I've just been able to begin to grasp the idea that this "art" philosophy of trading is where the real money is to be made...
Yes,it is but you have to start mechanical until everything click,and it takes years..
The reason is nothing else than the college. What would you do if you were me, Simba?
Go to college Malcik,I have a degree in economics with an MBA(1984),before trading full time I worked for a financial company as financial assistant manager and then I worked for a consumer electronics multinational company first as product manager then as marketing manager,approx 8 years after getting my MBA I started to trade full time(1992,right with George Soros demise of cable,I made a bundle just because I was short cable..by sma crossover no less..and "Georgie" thought it was a fundamental sell.. I lost it all in a few years),after this I created,with one partner, an import export company(1996) -while trading "part time",mainly spanish and european stocks-of which I am still the CEO(though I am only a "Friday" CEO(and majority stakeholder..it helps ),since 1998 I trade full time and I have to tell you that between 1992 and 1998 I blowed 2 accounts-the mark of the great trader -Then the pieces clicked and instead of financing my "trading habit" with my business profits,I started having two business sources of income,actually,though I am still the CEO(my partner is the President and COO and his salary is 5 times higher than mine..it helps too),my only real job in my company is covering the currency exchange risk(2 hours per week) and dining and wining "big" customers and suppliers..usually on Friday,which,as you must have already imagined , I do not "suffer" doing..so,it is absolutely important to have a real life......And ,sorry to tell it as it is,you will lose your first,and probably second account,so,start light,get a life,part-time trade,and when the pieces click...go for it at full throttle..
What would anyone else do? I'll be glad to hear your comments.
I just have one question regarding what you wrote: how ready do you think SimbaSystem is for live trading?
TotallyAre you trading it live?
Yes,sometimes mechanically,mainly as an art form combined with Hurst and Conman analysis
Or are you trading a modification? As I wrote before, I have never traded live. Since this system is the one I'm most familiar with, I'd like to read your honest opinion on how ready the system is. I like this system, I trust it. I only have a couple more backtest to do which I can do in terms of days. Then I'd like to go live with microlots and later on, when I feel I'm ready for next step, I can upgrade to minilots etc.
This is the right strategy,while doing mechanically so ,try to feel the ConMan and Hurst "view",and when everything clicks,start your own form of art..
I don't really want to wait months before going live. I believe the markets move much faster than that and with this kind of approach I think I would never feel ready enough to go live. Everyone, how long does it take you to employ a new system or a new modification? Please comment.
You can start now,as long as you use sound Money Management(5 to 10 to 1 leverage and Chandlier stops..) you will progress
Simba, thanks for your spending valuable time with us. I've said it already and I say it again: you are a great mentor and I'm never going to be able to thank you enough for your time and effort...
Well,when you are there with "Georgie" you can wine and dine me
Hope you enjoy doing it, I don't want you to go away
I enjoy trading ,and I enjoy posting,when there is people that,like you and several others,respond with interest..though sometimes it is frustrating to see some individuals unbelievable level of self interest..and stupidity,though I relax telling myself that they are my food..and that they deserve it,sorry if I seem too rude but trading,as any other competitive business,is hardball...
Have a nice recovery
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