I have an idea that I didn't work in yet and want to hear your comments!
Moving Average crossing system in my opinion one of the best trading system if it optimized well.
My idea is creating self-trained MA cross expert advisor that could learn what the best prameters to use:
1- slow moving average period
2- fast moving average period
3- stop loss, trailing stop and take profit values
4- DO YOU HAVE ANY SUGESSTIONS?
Do you think it's achievable idea? let's set on the rounded table!
Hi! I think that's a very good idea, that it would work well. Optmimised ma-crossing is used by large institutions, and I'd love to see it implemented in MT4. I'll try to be of as much help as I can.
If I may suggest, I think one should try to fine-tune the buy/sell signals by introducing a gearing function, as a function of the difference between price and ma or between two ma's.
What I mean is a function that takes the values: 0 (neutral) when i=price-ma is below a threshold a, 0.5 (slightly bullish) when i>a but less than b, 1 (bullish) when i>b but less than c, and finally -1 (contrarian) when i>c. The reverse would hold in the bearish direction.
Second step would be to introduce a decision function that makes the decisions based on the value of the gearing function, size of position, profit of position, account balance, and so on.
What do you think?
its sound great. i also want to test it.
hope it will bring more pip..
Yes it's very good idea about self-trained MA cross.
Adaptive Moving Averages
I think what you are talking about are called Adaptive Moving Averages, MAs that adapt to price fluctuations. I Googled the one I know of called KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive M A) and found a power point presentation viewable in html all about this and other AMAs, relative merits etc. Some people have done some serious work on the subject, so, as to not have to re-invent the wheel (as I have often done) I offer this link of Google's cache to the thread.
If you have Power Point you may wish this link instead:
If neither works for you for some reason, type the following string into Google:
PS: for stop losses I saw once an indicator called the Chandelier Exit. I have no experience with it whatsoever, but here is a link to a custom programming site that offers it as a free download. Try it and post your results!
That is a great idea once again and you are brave to have initiated it.
I think MA cross can be really helpful, after all in forex we only have the price information to use.
Why not use several (2-3) fast and slow moving average, that could cross in between each other and trigger buy and sell with x Lot opening linked to a Money managment.
Also the Moving Average could be calculated in a non conventional way.
instead of having a fix set of period ( ex 25) you could use a kind of number of pips back between open and close, ex 250 so going back x period till the Totalpips = Totalpips+(abs(Open-close)
if Totalpips>=250 then MAvalue= MA(i)
Hope it is not too confusing.
I tried to search inside my computer ( sometimes it is better that Google) and i found 1 KAMA and 3 Kaufman indicators.
And Igorad created NonLagMA_v2 indicator.
He said that "with default settings it correspond FATL and seems looks better. Besides we can apply this MA for Volatility, Momentum and for other useful tools. We can receive SATL, JMA by changing of settings."
Making a good MA cross based trading system is not the same thing as finding the most quickly adapting moving average. On the contrary, a bit a of lag can be good for robust buy/sell signals. So I think the best thing is to stick to price-MA as the basis for gearing, where MA is an appropriately chosen MA. I would suggest
MA(d, price) = 1/4 * Sum (EMA(2d/5,k,price))
where k in the sum goes from 1 to 4 and iteratiively
and then to start the optimisation around d=20.
Some comments for using of NonLagMA:
- default settings correspond FATL.
- Price(0), Length(128), Cycle(2), Phase(10), Coeff(7), Level(0.3)
curve is similar to SATL,
- Price(0), Length(128), Cycle(5), Phase(7), Coeff(10), Level(0.3)
similar to JMA (try to select better settings).
So we have all-in-one tool for digital filters (FATL, SATL) and for
such powerfull indicator like JMA.
I think this indicator will have the good future.
Hmm. How are you going to avoid getting whipsawed when the market is consolidating? If that's by adapting the MA's you may be less than prepared for the beginning of a trend, no?