Friday was a great day for me. I bought cable at 1,9992 and closed it at 2,0045.
Then, I sold USDCAD at 1,1267 and closed it at 1,1220. Nice day indeed.
What did I follow?
I should've gone short on cable according to CatFX50 and many other systems. But I did the opposite.
I followed CatFX50 though on that USDCAD short with the help of CAD data.
Forget now about USDCAD. Let's focus on GBPUSD.
To be successful in this business and in all markets in general, you need to follow the big money. Big money don't rely on fancy indicators nor on any system. Of course, they do not demo.
As we are not bank traders, we do not have the real map of where sharks are bidding and where they are offering. They will always win, mates. Cause they will never sell where they see big players buying or selling. Of course, sometimes they lose, as bids and offers can be canceled any time. But at the end, they will win.
So, those bids and offers build up a map for us: support and resistance. As many times a pair bounces in a level, the better. That means it is strong and when it breaks, we'll have a big rush or we should.
All systems are going to be a waste of time and money if they do not take into account S/R. All of them.
On USDCAD it was clear that the pair had its support at pivot and then a big one at 1,1206/10.
On cable it was clear too that it had and has a big support at 1,9980.
What will they do on Monday? No one can answer this question. NO ONE. Will they move their bids at 1,9980/90?
Will they do the same with their offers at 2,0040/70?
I have a great time reading posts here and there about what pairs will do. If you feel down someday, read them. You will recover a little bit.
Now, some say EURUSD is going down to hell and GBPUSD, the same. Nonsense. That's a bet. All we know is that both are bullish. Till when? Till they want to and till fundamental data support them. Yes, fundamental nor technical data.
Do you remember now those snake oil sellers saying US Indexes were going to retrace all they had made after that China issue? Well, Dow is at 13.000!!!!
And what about GBPUSD and its 2,0000 level? Well, it has gone to 2,0132!!!
I do know that is very hard to buy a pair when it is going down. But if we think to know where they are bidding and making a strong support, the risk is minimum.
Spot good supports and resistances and 3/4 of your work will be done.
Attached what pairs have done last week.
Those are my key levels for the whole week:
Friday will be a very important day.
We'll know USA q1 GDP. According to TSD calendar and others, they expect a 2,0% reading and a Deflactor of 3,0% (Deflactor is missing in TSD Calendar).
Those numbers are key. If they come out much lower than expected, we'll see usd going down hard. But if they are higher, we'll see a reverse on USD.
A lower reading of growth will mean that FED could take into account again a rate cut. Of course, we will need to look at Deflactor, cause if it comes out higher, FED will have a problem: low growth with inflation and then we'll see what Big Money does.
The worst scenario for USD is much lower numbers; GDP and Deflactor. If that is the case, EURUSD will break for sure 1,3668. Well, we need to see first where it is trading before the numbers, of course.
You can use how many indicators, EMA's and whatsoever guru or snake oil seller forecast, but if both number are much lower than expected, eurusd will fly or it should. And then, you can have on your charts a RSI above 70, Stoch above 80 and so on.... It doesn't matter, EURUSD will go up.
And the opposite, strong growth with inflation will send EURUSD down at least momentarely.
On Wednesday, we'll have US Durable Orders. We'll know then if capital spending keeps cooling.
If EURUSD and GBPUSD are where they are know, it is because Big Money does not think FED will hike. The opposite of BCE and BOE. If data shows them they are are wrong, EURUSD and GBPUSD will drop.
Do they use a fancy technical indicator to arrive to that conclusion?
No, they don't.
When I started this FOREX experience, I thought I only needed a nice set of indicators to tell me when to buy and when to sell. I despised Fundamental Analysis. What a mistake!!!
I said to myself: "I do not need to know why; I only need to know when to pull the trigger".
I was a vein ignorant. The worst of all kinds of ignorants. I'm still an ignorant now, but I try not be vain.
That's why I'm not feeling confident shorting EURUSD or GBPUSD now. And that's why I bought cable at its Friday lows.
When I see Big Money changing its gear, I will try to follow them. And believe me, I will do it against CatFX50 or whatsoever system.
As you know, my motto says:
We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct.
Nina's subscription service
I have been an active forex trader for about three years. I have read every article and text I could find or locate on forex trading. I still consider myself a student of forex, since the learning processs at times seems to be never ending. I once read that to be a successful forex trader you had to first discover every way there is in forex to lose money, and to never make that mistake again. Well suffice it to say Iam still finding new ways to lose money; however, I have found Nina's subscription service to be one of the best learning tools i have ever encountered. Her daily numbers and trading brackets have proven to be extremely accurate, and at times, almost prophetic. After having used her service for two months Iam begining to understand her trading methodology. Iam not saying I have mastered it by any stretch, but Iam learning every day. In sum, the subscription service is a very valuable trading tool and well worth every dime it costs. Keep up the excellent work Nina.
Very nice words.
I try to do my best. Markets are very hard and I hate to see all that spam business related to FOREX.
I'm still learning. I do not have any Holy Grail. I lose sometimes and a few of my calls have been losers too. But I try to be honest and say what I think
Today, for instance, no news ahead. EURUSD range is only 28 pips so far. London boys will be in soon. We'll see what they want to do. But I'm aside.
CatFX50 has sold GBPUSD at 2,0021 with stop at 2,0041. It has made a low so far at 2,007. I took it (you already know where I want to sell it though). Closed half at 2,0010 and the other half is at b/e.
Waiting for London boys.
This is what I sent to my subscribers a few days ago:
(Take care. As you know, this pair is very bullish so far. It has closed higher 4 weeks in a row. You need to see strength to short it. Do not listen to snake oil sellers, gurus nor prophets. Market can not be predicted: the roadside ditches are full of easily deceived corpses. Technical Analysis is only a tool and it fails a lot. Look at MACD on TF4h and you will see there bearish divergences. Right. And what has EURUSD been doing? Big Money do not follow all that stuff. Not at all. When I told you they were ready to buy cable at 1,9980, why do you think they wanted to do so? My God! Trade what you see and not what whatever schmuck could say. Does all that mean that I will not short EURUSD? It does not. ).
EURUSD is trading now at 1,3641 and it has made a high at 1,3652.
I want to remind that if you want to be on board for Daily May Analysis, you need to subscribe before Sunday.
I've heard of a service you can buy where you can see the bids and offers placed through the banks...which would give you the major support and resistance levels.
maybe it was through Reuters, I don't know BUT would this be worth the info?
If you remember the link, post it here. But FOREX is a non regulated market and it has not a centralized place where you can see levels. Therefore, I doubt the system you talk about exits.
But well informed people know already where EURUSD has the very big offers right now. Offers that will be immediately removed if data or very huge bids tells so.
The EURUSD previous high occurred on December 30, 2004, at 1.3667.
Today it has made a high so far at 1,3665. 2 pips shy.
Spammers and snake oil sellers bet against EURUSD.
I do not like to bet. I do no know if we are going to make a new high in a few minutes, during Asian session or tomorrow or if we are going down to hell.
Big money will decide. It will not do it a divergence, a butterfly, a stepMa, a fifth wave or whatsoever.
Wall Street likes a strong EURUSD so far. Dow is +0,58%; S&P500, +0,64% and Nasdaq, 0,66%.
Just want to thanks you for your work!
The level are extremelly accurate within few pips!!
Wants to thank you also for the two others systems the one for the NFP and the ODW one.
I am a fund manager, so not use to such quick trade, but try it Sunday and made my first pips on it ! Was delighted!!
Thanks a lot Peter
there is a guy claiming that he have a software that shows him bids and offers from big players.He worked in the big bank as dealer and when he left he made that software.
He is trading and selling signals now (not cheep) and funny thing most of his trades are scalping for few pips,from his report i don't think he have wining trade over 30 pips few times in 50 trades.
Here is the link kingforexsignals.com but use it on your own risk,guy who is advertising for it is famous Felix Homogratus...
Could be it is real thing but you never know.