The Murrey Math Trading System - page 27
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Daraknor,
Your thoughts are very interesting. Improving the current nice MT4 set of indicators further or develop an EA would be great.
I am also studying Murrey's system and I am a believer of it. I cannot code unfortunately but if I can help with testing or analysing I am ready to take my part from the development work.
Regards
Yes, it appears to make the Murrey Math calculations valid for all currency pairs. No, I'm not sure of that. I would like other people who have stared at market data and MurreyMath lines for a long time to look at the results and confirm/deny if the currency pairs match.
Here is the dependency path I figured out from reading TKnotes1.html
It uses the terminology from this file and makes references to table names within the document, so I attach the html file as well.
There are many things that non-programmers can do in order to help develop a complete MM solution. The first one is validating MM lines from the code. I cross checked the calculations several ways, and was able to get consistent results from the price modification. That doesn't mean it accurately models the world as we know it
The second major request I have of nonprogrammers would be how the TP/SL values should be placed based on MM. I was doing 'near side' of a 0/8 4/8 8/8 MM level for TP with a margin of 4-12 pips, and a 'far side' of the opposite level at 0/8 4/8 8/8 MML for a stop loss. I noticed that xard777 suggests (on forum, in excel file, and through comments) for bidding on +/- 1 or 2 MML and TP at 4/8. Are the TP values exactly on the line? I think these values can easily increase/decrease risk, and optimizing them would be critical for long term profits.
For the programmers in the crowd...
MurreyMath techniques:
MML
Requires: Current Price
Derives: Price support/resistance levels
MMI
Requires: Table2, Step6 estimates
Derives: necessary for all below
Reversals based on MMI
Requires: MMI query, MML lookup to derive %
Derives: Increasing confidence in reversal
Zone Defense
Requires: Detection of mapping between 2/8 4/8 6/8 MML vs 2/8 4/8 6/8 MMI
Derives: slow trendless markets prices will be deflected around the circles of conflict
Additional weighting on reversal location
Table 4+5
Requires: MML vs MMI grid charting (same as Zone Defense calculation?)
Derives: Trend and Momentum +/- and mapping
Potential Improvements and Research:
Prediction of +1 +2 -1 -2 possible using momentum?
Do news events align along MML levels?
How long until MML support/resist restablished?
Establish confidence of MMLine price levels through calculation of break/reverse
formal quantinization of the support/resistance properties of MMML's, mMML's, and bMML's with respect to eachother
Square in time & MMI need to consider entire trading history (price and time) for most accurate selection
64 day != 65 day trading cycle: how does this skew the charts
Do the 'Squares in Time' accurately reflect daily cycles for open/close of markets?
Hi, daraknor
I'd like to do the nonprogrammer work if you could tell me more details. I think you should supply a set standard, such as which indicator to do research under what TM, in order to get what result, etc.
Cheers,
asam
Honestly I don't have enough information to come up with series of specific tests yet. I will likely write an EA or indicator just to go through historical data and see if the basic Murrey Math Laws were followed. It wouldn't trade, just generate reports based on "condition x was met, price action y was supposed to happen, did it?"
Some of the deeper questions about MM will require both code and eyeballs. Eyeballs might be able to help us figure out what code is useful to write. The best action right now is likely using Brains instead of Code or Eyeballs. I went through this thread and collected indicators. Here is the list I collected:
Guppy MACD
MACD 2 Color Histogram
Current Price
Sniper's LSMA
Super Signals v2
T3 RSI
Float v2
Combining other indicators with Murrey may give us a few hints without writing code. For example, MACD may tell us what quadrant price has been in lately. That is a shortcut to answering, "Square in time & MMI need to consider entire trading history (price and time) for most accurate selection." It isn't a perfect answer, but knowing if MACD can give the clue that TK (in the html file) hinted at would help.
One thing eyeballs can do now is research how news + MM. Did news events land on a 0/8 4/8 8/8 line? (these are thick or dotted in the Octave code) After a news event, how long did it take before MML were approached and not touched? (how long until predicted support/resistance kicked back in). This would give us the "tail value" for avoiding news events.
I wrote some code to put historical news data on the chart, and it is over 2600 events filterable by currency and expected impact. I want to apply more filters (if (Expected/Actual) > .8 or < 1.2) but I don't know if I have the resources. Maybe I should just release it :/ Looking at a dozen news events per day, almost all of the spikes line up with a news event.
Data from last week. You can see how in Pic4.gif that the news spike in red (USD high impact) caused a quick crash, but it still didn't penetrate the lower MML. Finding out that sort of information will tell us quite a bit I think. I'm torn between too many code projects: writing a news filter for EA, writing a MML price library for EA to use MML prices, putting finishing touches on my NewsHistory plotter, writing a security module for Account# Filtering in EX4 files, writing a full MM indicator (as listed above) and writing a simple EA based on the +1+2 -1-2 return to 4/8 trading strategy. Hmm. Suggestions? I can only play forex for so long, need to code for $ :/
Hmm, seems it is not an easy thing to completed. More excellent programmers should be gather together to finish this if they want. Let me see what I can do, maybe follow how the news affect the price.
Here is indicator which I think its an addition signal to estimate the reversal, works better on H4, D1. Hope it can help.
Hmm, seems it is not an easy thing to completed. More excellent programmers should be gather together to finish this if they want. Let me see what I can do, maybe follow how the news affect the price. Here is indicator which I think its an addition signal to estimate the reversal, works better on H4, D1. Hope it can help.
looks good thanks
Oh, the pictures above: Horizontal lines from Octave v4 (tweak not needed on USDJPY so it should be valid) and vertical dotted lines are news events. I turned off the labels, but mouseovers have label information on currency, price, Actual/Forecast/Previous, brief description.
NFP trading with Murrey Math
OK, I traded today's NFP on a live account with the help of one of Xard's setup (see the image attached). The traded currency pair was EURUSD.
I thought there will be USD strengthening so I placed a sell stop order two points below the relevant MM level. The pair was traded around 1.2760 at that time, taking the possible whipsaw into consideration I thought the best position for a sell stop would be 1.2724 (2 point below the MM line at 1.2726).
After an upper spike the pair went down to ca. level -1/8, that minimum became 1.2682 (the MM level was at 1.2680). When it bounced back from there I waited a bit then closed my order at 1,2689.
I thought it would be back down from 1.2703 (that was 1/8 level on M5 timeframe - as far as I can recall). I was late again so when I placed a sell order it was down at 1.2690. Then it climbed up again upto 1.2710 (the next MM line was at 1.2711).
It bounced back from there and I was able to close my second short order since it went down 1.2680 at that time (-1/8 MM level on both H1 and M5 timeframe).
Then it started to climb up again.
Observations:
- The charts recalculate themselves several times during trading. It can be handled at spot since the role of the new levels are obvious but makes difficult to make an analysis or write a report later.
- As Murrey wrote somewhere, the reversals well approach the different MM levels but there are some pips difference several times. I think it is normal, the nature does not create perfect formats.
- I was too late or early at placing my second sell order. I should have placed it at 1.2703 or 1.2710. But I did not know where the reversal point would be.
Consequences:
- Murrey Math is well usable even in a quickly changing trading environment.
- When we trade we should take the usual differences described above into account either at manual trading or at programming an EA.
- I have to study the system further to decide the probable reversal points better.
Observations:
- The charts recalculate themselves several times during trading. It can be handled at spot since the role of the new levels are obvious but makes difficult to make an analysis or write a report later.
yeah, that's true. The better way is to save the previous and latter price to compare. Or you can use octave indicator which does not change in any TF.
asam
murrey in news time
i attached 2 pics which shows support and resistance points before and after NFD. As it is obviously seen on charts any forecast made before news could not be realized. on the other hand, after the announcement it is possible to determine the S and R levels with high probability.