Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 23
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Yes. I remember a picture like that, but I wish there was a data file as well.... I don't have one, unfortunately...
My guess is that the current target area for the SP500 is in the area indicated on the chart, between 1400 and 1500. The time to move there is three to four months.
Logically, this area is intermediate and further downward movement is likely, but it is too early to talk about its long-range targets.
I can see why the technical analysis leads to losses. The time correction is extrapolated to unbelievable levels without taking fundamental facts into account. I continue to maintain that the market will be at a new high by the end of September, at most the end of this year. The powerful move up will begin when the Fed announces on September 17--the 17th that they are not going to raise rates. There is no reason for the US market to fall. The U.S. economy is moving forward. Inflation is low. Unemployment is slowly decreasing. China is still a small market for the US (the Chinese mainly consume their own products).
Speaking of unemployment. In the US, unemployment is officially published at the so-called U-3 level, which includes only those unemployed who continue to look for work through the labor service. The U-6 unemployment rate is now at 10%. If you include those who have lost all hope of finding a job and have not applied to the labour market during the last year, the unemployment rate is even higher. The officially published unemployment figures before 1982 included those who were hopelessly unemployed, while now they are not. The Fed knows this and will not rush to raise rates.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Asked here -
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/40739/page15
I can see why technical analysis leads to losses. Temporary corrections are extrapolated to unbelievable levels without taking fundamental facts into account. I continue to maintain that the market will be at a new high by the end of September, at the very least the end of this year. The powerful move up will begin when the Fed announces on September 17--the 17th that they are not going to raise rates. There is no reason for the US market to fall. The U.S. economy is moving forward. Inflation is low. Unemployment is slowly decreasing. China is still a small market for the US (the Chinese mainly consume their own products).
Speaking of unemployment. In the US, unemployment is officially published at the so-called U-3 level, which includes only those unemployed who continue to look for work through the labor service. The U-6 unemployment rate is now at 10%. If you include those who have lost all hope of finding a job and have not applied to the labour market during the last year, the unemployment rate is even higher. The officially published unemployment figures before 1982 included those who were hopelessly unemployed, while now they are not. The Fed knows this and will not rush to raise rates.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
You are ruled by a selfless faith in a "god" called the USA.
Just this statement of yours"There is no reason for the US market to go down" is more like an incantation...
You are ruled by a selfless belief in a "god" called the USA.
Just this statement of yours,"There is no reason for the US market to go down", is more like an incantation....
So you know and can give reasons for the decline of the US market?
And here you are allowing for a logical contradiction. For knowledge and incantation are not about the same thing.
And there are many reasons. I will not list them. There is a lot of information about it on the net.
And here you are allowing for a logical contradiction. For knowledge and incantation are not about the same thing.
And there are many reasons. I will not list them. There is a lot of information about it on the net.
In short, there is no reason.
It would be more correct to say: There are many reasons, but they do not want to see them. They don't want to show them, so they retouch them.
Speaking of reasons for questioning... ;)
If you think there is no reason for the decline, then why did the indices go down? No reason? Did they just fall like that for no reason?
Or is there still a reason, but it's being kept quiet? Then - why?
There are many questions. These are just on the surface.