AUD/USD news - page 2

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elisab:
An interesting chance to go short on GbpAud:

This pair still with the major trend. No sign of a reversal ye

 
alanfx:
This pair still with the major trend. No sign of a reversal ye

In fact, my opinion is that there will only be a rebound towards area 1.69 also thanks to the end of the month of August, the worst month for the Aussie from the seasonal point of view (and this is what happened this time time too!).

 

The black month for the aussie is finished and the resistance of area of 1.50 on EurAud are still solid. Short opportunity in sight.

 

Next week important news coming from Australia. Meeting of the RBA and Parliament elections... we'll see if it will be the right time for the Aussie reaction.

 

The terrible month for the Aussie is finished but without a lower low than that of the beginning of August (0.8848). Possible bullish head and shoulder figure in formation with neck line in area 0.92.

 

AUD/USD Forecast September 9-13

The Australian dollar sparkled last week as AUD/USD gained around 250 points. The pair closed slightly below the 92 line. This week’s key releases include AZ Job Advertisements and Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar took full advantage of strong Chinese Manufacturing data as well as a positive Australian GDP release. In the US, PMI numbers were solid, but Non-Farm Payrolls missed the estimate and this hurt the US dollar.

  1. Chinese Trade Balance: Monday, 1:51. Chinese Trade Balance jumped from 17.8 billion dollars in June to 28.8 billion dollars in July, easily beating the estimate of 20.3 billion. China is Australia’s number one trading partner, so the strong release is good news and could lift the Australian dollar.
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This key employment indicator continues to post declines, although the readings have been improving. The July reading of -1.1% was the best reading since March. The markets are hoping for a stronger release for August.
  3. Home Loans: Monday, 1:30. Home Loans provides an important gauge of activity in the housing sector. The indicator improved to 2.7% in the July release, surpassing the estimate of 2.2%. The markets are expecting a weaker reading for August, with an estimate of 2.2%.
  4. Chinese CPI: Monday, 1:30. Chinese CPI is one of the most important Chinese releases and can have a strong impact on AUD/USD. The index has been steady in recent readings, and has posted two straight gains of 2.7%. Little change is expected, with a forecast of 2.6%.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Tuesday, 1:00. This indicator helps analysts predict actual inflation numbers. The indicator has been fairly steady and posted an increase of 2.3% in the July release. No significant change is expected in the August reading.
  6. NAB Business Confidence: Monday, 1:30. Business Confidence is an important release, as increased business confidence translates into more spending by businesses, which is crucial for economic growth. The indicator looked very weak in July, dropping to -3 points. This was an eight-month low. Will the indicator rebound and post a stronger reading for August?
  7. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Consumer Sentiment provides a snapshot of the confidence level of the Australian consumer. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which is one of the most important engines of economic growth. The indicator has been quite volatile and posted a strong gain of 3.5% in July. The markets will be hoping for another strong release for August.
  8. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. Employment Change is the most important employment indicator and can have a strong impact on the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator disappointed in July, posting a decline of -10.2 thousand. This was way off the estimate of 6.2 thousand and the worst showing since April. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround for August, with an estimate of 10.2 thousand. Despite this rosy forecast, the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 5.7%, to 5.8%.

read more ...

 

Head and shoulder formalized on the Aussie and now the minimum target would be 0.9510 (also 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement). But there is still the barrier of 0.9310 to overcome.

Files:
aussie_1.gif  42 kb
 

AudChf close to the resistance, the trend is confirmed bearish.

Files:
audchf.gif  41 kb
 

AUD/USD Forecast September 16-20

AUD/USD posted some strong gains, but gave most of those up closed the week with modest gains. The pair ended the week at 0.9243. This week’s key release is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

It wasn’t a very good week for either the US or Australian releases. Australia’s Employment Change slumped to a five-month low, while in the US, retail sales and consumer confidence looked sluggish.

  1. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. Analysts will be paying close attention to this release, which is the key event of the week. The minutes will provide details of the RBA’s last policy meeting, at which time the central bank held interest rates at 2.50%. A report which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. New Motor Vehicle Sales measure the change in the purchase of cars and trucks. The indicator provides an important snapshot of consumer confidence and spending, which are critical for economic growth.
  3. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:00. This indicator is based on 7 economic indicators. The July reading of -0.2% was a disappointment, as it marked the indicator’s first decline this year. The markets are hoping for a gain in September.
  4. RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey Speaks: Wednesday, 1:30. Edey will address a financial forum in Sydney. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  5. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. This is a minor event, as most of the information has been released previously. The markets will be focusing on the part of the bulletin which contains an analysis of current and future economic conditions.

* All times are GMT

read more ...

 

The Aussie denies the bearish engulfing pattern of Thursday and at this point rushes towards 0.9512, the 38.2% of the bear market.

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