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US Dollar Flat, Gold Hinting at Rebound on US Budget Woes
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Prices are wedged between support at 100.88, a horizontal pivot dating back to April 2012, and the underside of a rising channel set from early July (105.17). A break upward aims for the underside of a rising trend line set from mid-April (108.33). Alternatively, a push through support initially targets supports at the 100.00 figure and 98.99.
3 Popular Questions New Forex Traders Ask
Question #1 – What Is The Best Indicator?
The short answer is “none of them.” There is not a single indicator that is better than any other or that can guarantee profits. Traders that seek such an indicator are often referred to as traders looking for the Holy Grail. There is no Holy Grail, but each indicator serves a purpose and can yield profitable results when used correctly. It all comes down to understanding what each indicator does and applying them to the right situations.
One thing to also look out for are indicators that are calculated differently, but act very similar. I like to refer to them as indicator families. There are many different types of Moving Averages, Oscillators, Strength Indicators, Trend Filters, Volatility Indicators, etc. It is important to take time to learn each of the different indicator types, how to use them, and when to use them.
3 Popular Questions New Forex Traders Ask
Question #2 – How Many Pips Should I Try To Make Per Day/Week/Month?
This is a question I receive in almost every trading webinar I present. “Is 50 pips-a-week enough to trade FX full-time?” or “Is 250 pips-a-month too lofty a goal if I am just starting out?” These questions are flawed. Not that it is bad to set goals for yourself, but results oriented goals will stifle your trading performance. This is why.
Forex markets are inconsistent. You cannot control what your results will be (period). You could have the best trading strategy in the world and still lose money if the market decides not to cooperate. So with that being said, setting results oriented goals is dooming yourself to fail. You cannot control what your results will be.
Another reason a “X amount of pips” goal hinders performance is that you are constantly out of sync with the market. During market conditions when your strategy does well, you will hit your targeted number of pips quickly, and could possibly leave money on the table if you stop trading. During market conditions when your strategy does poorly, you will be forced to continue to trade in attempt to claw your way back into profitable territory, further extending your losses since market conditions have already shown to be unfavorable. This leaves you trading more frequently in bad market conditions and less frequently in good market conditions. That is not ideal at all.
What you need to focus on are things you can control. Your goals should revolve around being consistent in following your personal trading rules and not being swayed by your emotions. You want to be able to go back and look at your trades and agree with each decision you made (even if the trades lost money). Remember, you can’t control whether or not the trade will be profitable, but you can make sure you followed the rules to a strategy you believe gives you an edge.
3 Popular Questions New Forex Traders Ask
Question #3 – What Is The Best Time Frame?
The best time frame is the one you can reasonably trade within your own personal schedule. People have found success trading all time frames from Daily charts all the way down to Tick charts. So it really boils down to how long you have each day to watch/trade the market. Here are some guidelines to get an idea of what you should look for depending on how much time you have to commit to FX trading.
0-30 Minutes a Day
With such a limiting amount of time to analyze the markets, you should focus on trading larger time frames. Weekly and Daily charts should be your focus and you should look to trade longer term moves. Trades can be open for days, weeks, possibly even months.
30-60 Minutes a Day
Having a solid hour to work with each day would allow you to start looking at smaller charts like the 4-Hour on top of looking at Dailies and Weeklies. You are looking for both medium and long term moves. Trades placed based off of a 4-Hour charts will usually close within 1-2 weeks unless you run into a longterm trend that keeps you in.
1-4 Hours a Day
At this level of time commitment, it’s safe to say you are a part-time trader. This opens up a lot of doors. You could easily trade any of the time frames mentioned above as well as Hourly, 30-Minute, and 15-Minute charts. Your trading could result in Long, Medium, or Short-term trades and you could begin placing intra-day trades (if that’s what you think fits your personality).
4+ Hours a Day
Trading full-time means you can trade the full gamut of time frames. Your choice completely comes down to personal preference. As I mentioned earlier, traders have found success trading virtually all time frames. So if you are stuck on picking a time frame, just go with one you are naturally drawn to or try out Multiple Time Frame Analysis.
2013-10-17 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]
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Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales
U.K. Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% in September, and a marked rebound in private sector consumption should heighten the appeal of the British Pound as it raises the scope for a stronger recovery in Britain.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 10/16/2013 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: 0.4%
Previous: -0.9%
Forecast: -0.2% to 0.5%
Why Is This Event Important:
A pickup in household spending may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule in an effort to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Climbs 0.4% or Greater
- Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a bullish GBPUSD trade
- If reaction favors a buy trade, long British Pound with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: Household Spending Contracts for Second MonthPotential Price Targets For The Release
Retail spending in the U.K. unexpectedly slipped 0.9% in September following a 1.2% rise the month prior, which was largely driven by a 1.6% decline in Household Goods Stores sales. The dismal print triggered a selloff in the British Pound, with the GBPUSD slipping below the 1.6100 handle, and the sterling weakened further throughout the North American trade as the pair closed at 1.6029.
AUD/USD Grind Higher Continues; 2012 Low is at .9580
Trading Strategy: The market is stretched up here. Weakness below .9420 would suggest that a top is in place.
LEVELS: .9428 .9484 .9519 | .9580 .9665 .9710
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2013.10.17
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD Paramon Scalping system
Time To Take Profits In Some Hot Stocks As The Market Again Hits New Highs
Now that the stock market is again close to hitting new all-time record highs, it's time for investors to reajdust portfolios and take out some profits by selling red-hot stocks that have been big winners.
The government shutdown and the threat of a debt default is finally over, if only temporarily. So now that the stock market is once again coming close to hitting all-time new highs, with the Dow rocketing to 15,373.83 – just off 1.93% from its record high of 15,676.94 reached on Sept. 18, 2013 — it’s time to readjust portfolios by taking profits from the bounty that’s been generated.
In other words, it’s time to execute the old adage — sell the highs and buy the lows.
Chinese Rating Agency Decision Lifts Gold Market, But Impact Debated
News that a Chinese rating agency downgraded U.S. debt pushed gold prices higher during the late Asian to early European trading sessions, some market watchers said, taking values to their session highs.
Since then, gold prices backed off from their peak slightly, but remain elevated.
As of 11:19 a.m. EDT, gold for December delivery was up $35.70, or 2.8%, to $1,318 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit a high of $1,322.90 that was its most muscular level in a little more than a week. December silver was 42 cents, or 2%, higher to $21.785.
A Chinese credit-rating agency, Dagong Global Credit Rating, trimmed its rating of the U.S. by one notch to A-minus from A. According to Reuters, the agency said that the agreement in Washington between Democrats and Republicans to reopen the government and come to a temporary debt deal does not defuse worries about the U.S. deficit or improve the country’s ability to repay in the long term.
Some market watchers said when the news broke, gold prices spiked about $30 higher, pushing through the $1,300 level, where pre-placed buy orders, known as buy stops, were likely triggered, exacerbating the move.
A metals trader said Dagong’s statement “seems to be a reminder to investors of the damage that has already been done to the U.S.’s economic and political standing. Now they are not recognized by the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission); however, their points in the press release can’t be ignored. This seemingly took its toll on the USD (U.S. dollar) and gold shorts rushed to cover their positions. The yellow metal moved over $30 higher in the span of 10 minutes.”
The Reuters story called Dagong “China's biggest home-grown ratings agency” but also said outside of China, Dagong’s ratings are “barely watched.” The Reuters story also said “major international credit agencies classify most countries very differently from the Chinese agency. Its views do not necessarily represent the Chinese government's stance, however, its analysis often runs in tandem with remarks from government officials.”
BBH pointed to a $5 billion rise in Treasury holdings on the Fed's custody facility for foreign central banks, even though the government was shut, a figure they forecast to rise further when new data are released later Thursday. The firm also noted that China's reserves jumped by $164 billion in the third quarter.
“The best way for China to reduce its dependence on the dollar and U.S. Treasurys is to stop accumulating reserves. As long as it is accumulating reserves, its dilemma remains in place,” they said, noting there is no other market big enough to absorb all the proceeds from countries that are building reserves.
2013-10-18 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China's Economic Growth Gathers Pace In Q3
China's economic growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters in the July-September period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed Friday, supporting policymakers' efforts to restructure the economy in order to achieve sustainable growth in the longer-term.
The gross domestic product rose 7.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2013 in line with expectations. This was faster than a 7.5 percent growth in the second quarter and a 7.7 percent gain in the first quarter.
Another set of data from the statistical office showed that China's industrial production expanded 10.2 percent year-on-year in September, decelerating from a 10.4 percent growth in August. The outcome, nonetheless, matched forecast.
Retail sales in the country increased 13.3 percent in September from a year earlier. This was slightly weaker than the expected 13.5 percent gain and August's 13.4 percent growth.
The country's fixed asset investment increased 20.2 percent during the first nine months of the year compared with the corresponding period last year. This was only a tad below economists' forecast of 20.3 percent.
During the January-September period, the GDP rose 7.7 percent compared with the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 2.2 percent in the third quarter.
Premier Li Keqiang has said that he expects China's full-year growth to exceed the government's target of 7.5 percent. Echoing Li's remarks, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang made a similar statement in Washington earlier this month.
However, foreign trade data published by the General Administration of Customs over the weekend was disappointing, with overseas shipments recording an unexpected decline of 0.3 percent annually in September.
Tech Industry Stocks
LinkedIn stocks continued to fall and plunged by around 7.78%, which resulted in breaking the $238.06 support level, hence showing the current trading price at $237.21 a share. The bears managed to close the shares of social media giant for professionals below its 50-days moving average ever since it breached its support in mid-July.
The fast-growing technology and social media industry needs immense innovation and continuous innovation through R&D to offer utmost ease, convenience, and outstanding features to the users and where LinkedIn is apparently lagging behind.
The company needs a notable breakthrough step in changing traders’ sentiments, or else the bears might bring the stock price at a multi-month low level and could even target $206 a share level mark.
Facebook Aims Big
The awaited bearish retracement is over now where it took a dip and tested $45.5 level after which it bounced back up this week and is currently trading at 50.65 dollar a share level. The analysts stated that the bullish momentum of the stocks is quite strong and would give it further boost in the stock price. The stocks of the social media giant are downgraded from ‘strong buy’ to ‘outperform’ which may be taken as a hint of ‘overbought’ by investors; however the analysts have raised the forecasted price target of Facebook’s stock from $51 to $56 level.