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2013-10-14 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
==========
China CPI +3.1% On Year In September
Consumer prices in China were up 3.1 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
That topped forecasts for an increase of 2.8 percent, and climbed from 2.6 percent in August.
The bureau also noted that producer prices were down 1.3 percent on year versus expectations for -1.4 percent following the 1.6 percent contraction in the previous month.
5 Traits of a Highly Successful Investor
Five traits of a highly successful investor (in no particular order):
1. Discipline - Every investor has to be disciplined in the market. If you can't follow your own rules and stick to a strategy, you may find yourself laying dead in the battlefield faster than you know. Discipline is the most important trait of a successful investor because the market is full of temptation to make dumb mistakes day in day out.
2. Patience - Act too quickly and you may just get burned. Some traders will step back and wait months before making a trade, why? Because they are patient hunters looking for the right moment to strike. You can't rush art, and especially when day trading, every penny truly makes a difference.
3. Dedication - If you aren't dedicated to the market, you may as well go work at a quickie mart. Some of the best managers are up at 4:30 AM if not earlier to start their day and map out potential plays. I don't care how late you stayed up last night, if Microsoft announces they are buying Yahoo (which rumors spread last week), you have perhaps a several minute window (if you are lucky) to buy in before value has completely been realized.
4. Guts - When you bet nine months in advance that Apple is going to take off and you place $100 million on the table, you have guts. Some of the best traders in the world have taken bets that no one else saw or agreed with, but had the last laugh in the end. And you think your mom is ruthless, if hedge funds find out your firm is on the edge of crumbling and you are holding a few big positions, watch out!
5. Perseverance - Probably the X factor of successful trading, perseverance is critical to success because let's face it, not everything is going to go your way. No one cares that you have thirty years experience behind you, without a solid track record you are a nobody. But, the more you continue to educate yourself and learn the little tricks of the trade, the more you are going to make in the long run. The best part of the stock market is that history has shown the game repeats itself, you may loose your rear today, but in three months when the same trade comes around, you will know what to do.
GBP/USD remains higher amid U.S. budget concerns
The pound remained higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as growing concerns over a potential U.S. sovereign default continued to weigh on demand for the greenback.
GBP/USD hit 1.5989 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's highest since October 9; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5968, adding 0.14%.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.5922, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.6070, the high of September 23.
Negotiations between the White House and House Republicans broke down over the weekend, after President Barack Obama rejected Republican proposals for a short-term debt ceiling increase.
If a deal to raise the government borrowing limit is not struck ahead of Thursday’s deadline, the U.S. will face an unprecedented sovereign debt default.
World finance ministers and central bank heads in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank over the weekend called for “urgent action” to break the deadlock, warning of the negative impact on the global economic recovery.
Sterling was fractionally higher against the euro with EUR/GBP edging down 0.07%, to hit 0.8484.
In the euro zone, data on Monday showed that industrial production rose 1% in August, coming in above expectations for a 0.8% increase.
China Oil Imports Surge to Record Highs, WTI Climbs
We reported recently that China has passed another milestone in its economic development and has become the number one consumer of liquid fuel. Now that China imports a lot of liquid oil and demand for oil has surged, West Texas Intermediate has reversed earlier losses.
Whereas WTI for November delivery rose as much as 50 cents to $102.52 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent for November settlement was 17 cents lower at $111.11 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
A month ago, China overtook America as the largest buyer of oil on the international markets which is good news for oil companies; however, quite a tough situation for China as it has increased its energy insecurity. The report from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. government, says that China’s net oil imports hit an average 6.3 million barrels a day.
The last couple of decades have seen tremendous growth in Chinese economy and so have been the growth in demand of oil from the country. Whereas earlier in 1996, it accounted for just 5 per cent of the world’s demand, the demand for oil has now doubled up at 11 per cent. Moreover, as China does not have much internal sources to meet the demand, it will have to depend on Gulf oil.
Estimates are that Chinese consumer demand for oil will continue to grow rapidly for various obvious reasons; one of them is that people are buying more vehicles as household incomes are rising. The nouveau riche in the country is turning for oil guzzling luxury cars. It is to be noted that foreign policies are often influenced and dictated by energy requirements of a country.
West Texas Intermediate Gains
Amidst the news that China is going to import much more oil than earlier, West Texas Intermediate reversed earlier losses. This has happened despite the fact that the two parties in Congress in the U.S. are still not unanimous on debt ceiling and partial government shutdown which is not only impacting the national economy but the global economy.
In New York futures rebounded to as high as 0.5 per cent. This was contrary to what happened earlier wherein they were down as much as 0.8 percent. Nonetheless, net crude imports from China rose to 25.61 million metric tons last month. Traders believe that China remains a key driver of crude demand.
Americans Fama, Hansen, Shiller Win Nobel Prize In Economics For Stock Price Analysis
This year's Nobel laureates in economics have fundamentally altered the way investors analyze, buy and sell stocks.
This year’s Nobel laureates in economics have fundamentally altered the way investors analyze, buy and sell stocks.
American professors Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller have won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences “for their empirical analysis of asset prices.”
Asset price analysis impact the way individuals chose to save and how governments chose to stimulate economies. Poor pricing can lead to economic bubbles and crashes, the danger of which became clear during the financial crisis. “Their methods have become standard tools in academic research, and their insights provide guidance for the development theory as well as for professional investment practices,” states a report from The Royal Swedish Academy of Science which selects economics laureates.
The Nobel Prize in economics has been awarded since 1969, with the annual prize going to multiple laureates 23 times for a total of 74 laureates. The average age of all winners is 67 (Shiller is 67, Fama and Hansen are 74 and 60 respectively). Only one woman has won the economics prize. This year’s winners will share a prize of 8 million Swedish kronor — or $1.2 million.
2013-10-15 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
==========
UK: Annual CPI up 2.7% in September
According to data released today by National Statistics, UK annual inflation rose 2.7% in September, following 2.7% growth registered the previous month. This result is almost in line with analysts' forecasts of +2.6. On a monthly basis CPI rose 0.4%, after increasing 0.4%, slightly more than the expected 0.3% growth.
Year-over-year Core CPI climbed 2.2% in September, up from 2.0% in August.
Why Many Experienced Traders Favor a Trend Trading Approach
Talking Points:
Traders who look for a system that is low maintenance while allowing for access to nice market moves often turn to trend trading. Trend trading is a method that allows you to take advantage of the big market moves while ignoring the small moves in hopes of making money often capturing the big move. However, it’s important to note that this trend trading should only be utilized in trending markets and are best left alone when markets aren’t trending.
Price trends like the one seen above in the USDJPY pair is often influenced by Economic trends. The USDJPY is specifically being influenced by a plan of the Prime Minister of Japan to weaken the JPY and as an effect drive up both the USDJPY and Tokyo’s stock market the Nikkei 225. As you can imagine, economic trends take a while to develop and often persist until a shock to the system or an eventual decline of new buyers begins to see the trend to its end.
Many traders take a multi-faceted approach to the market. They do this by waiting for the technical picture or price action patterns to converge with the fundaments back-drop before taking a trade. As you can see from above, price moved above the 200-day simple moving average which is a technical buy signal as the Japanese government committed publicly weakening the JPY which helped push the USDJPY higher by over 1,700 pips in the last 12 months.
When looking at a price chart unfold, there’s a constant feeling that haunts many traders. That feeling is that the rising trend that they just entered is about to be topping out or that buy trade they just exited as a loss is nearing the bottom of its move before moving higher. However, more often most traders would expect, there is an unusually large number of strong directional price moves especially at the last leg of a move.
However, when you tend to embrace trend trading, this point of anxiety whereas you were likely trying to buy the bottom and sell the top has now become a favored point in your trading. I often share as one of my preferred that trading rules that stood the test of time price can often outlast your capital and its best to not fight the trend but rather join it. Naturally, a trend will eventually turn when the fundamental news (see #1) begins to change or when there are no longer enough buyers to push up prices to new heights but in the meantime, it’s much better to gain on the trend’s momentum that be opposing the momentum.
Money seeking the most favorable trade will often develop trends
You should now have a clearer understanding of why trends develop and why they can often last longer than many anticipate. As opposed to being frustrated by the presence of a trend, it’s often best to join the trend while it is in action. However, it is often best to wait for a breakout to make sure that you’re entering on the resumption of the trend so you don’t get caught up in the sideways price action that often develops after a big move and many of the traders in the prior trend are taking profits.
Unemployment claims are expected to contract another 25.0K in September, and a positive development may trigger a near-term rally in the GBPUSD as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, the stronger recovery in the U.K. raises the risk of seeing the Bank of England (BoE) implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule, and the sterling may continue to outperform against its major counterparts amid the material shift in the policy outlook.
The ongoing expansion in private sector credit along with the budding recovery the housing market may prompt a further decline in unemployment, and a better-than-expected print may ultimately prompt a more meaningful move at the 1.6300 handle as the BoE retains a 7% unemployment threshold for its forward-guidance.
However, the recent lull in business outputs paired with the weakness in global trade may drag on the labor market, and the sterling may struggle to retain the range-bound price action from earlier this month should the employment report disappoint.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, D1, 2013.10.16
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
GBPUSD D1
Bullish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims Contracts 25.0K or More
- Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBPUSD trade
- If reaction favors a buy trade, long GBPUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: Unemployment Report DisappointsMetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2013.10.16
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
GBPUSD M5
U.K. Jobless Claims slipped another 32.6K in July following a 36.3K contraction the month prior, while the ILO Unemployment Rate unexpectedly slipped to 7..7% from 7.8% to mark the lowest reading since November 2012. The better-than-expected print propped up the British Pound, with the GBPUS climbing above the 1.5800 handle, and the sterling continued to appreciate during the North American trade as the pair closed at 1.5816.
Fitch Places United States' 'AAA' on Rating Watch Negative
15 October 2013: Fitch Ratings has placed the United States of America's (U.S.) 'AAA' Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The ratings of all outstanding U.S. sovereign debt securities have also been placed on RWN, as has the U.S. Short-term foreign currency rating of 'F1+'. The Outlook on the Long-term ratings was previously Negative. The U.S. Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'AAA'.
Fitch expects to resolve the RWN by the end of Q114 at the latest, although timing would necessarily reflect developments and events, including the duration of any agreement to raise the debt ceiling.