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2013-10-23 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia Q3 Inflation +1.2% On Quarter
Consumer prices in Australia climbed 1.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
That was higher than forecasts for an increase of 0.8 percent following the 0.4 percent gain in the second quarter.
The most significant price rises this quarter were for automotive fuel (up 7.6 percent), international holiday travel and accommodation (6.1 percent), electricity (4.4 percent), property rates and charges (7.9 percent), water and sewerage (9.9 percent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (3.5 percent).
The most significant offsetting price fall this quarter was for vegetables (down 4.5 percent).
By individual component, prices for transportation were up 2.4 percent on quarter, followed by housing (2.0 percent), recreation (1.9 percent), clothing (1.1 percent), alcohol (0.9 percent) and insurance (0.4 percent).
On a yearly basis, consumer prices were up 2.2 percent - also exceeding expectations for 1.8 percent after gaining 2.4 percent in the previous three months.
By individual component, prices for education jumped 5.6 percent on year, followed by health (4.1 percent), housing and alcohol (4.0 percent each), transportation (2.7 percent) and communications (1.8 percent).
The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean was up 0.7 percent on quarter - topping forecasts for 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous quarter following a revision from 0.5 percent.
On year, the trimmed mean was up 2.3 percent - beating expectations for 2.1 percent and unchanged from Q2 following an upward revision from 2.2 percent.
Where Are The Stops? Tuesday, October 22: Gold And Silver
Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).
See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.
Stop Orders Defined
Stop orders in trading markets can be used for three purposes: One: To minimize a loss on a long or short position (protective stop). Two: To protect a profit on an existing long or short position (protective stop). Three: To initiate a new long or short position. A buy stop order is placed above the market and a sell stop order is placed below the market. Once the stop price is touched, the order is treated like a "market order" and will be filled at the best possible price.
Most stop orders are located and placed based upon key technical support or resistance levels on the daily chart, which if breached, would significantly change the near-term technical posture of that market.
Having a good idea, beforehand, where the buy and sell stops are located can give an active trader a better idea regarding at what price level buying or selling pressure will become intensified in that market.
The major advantage of using protective stops is that, before a trade is initiated, you have a pretty good idea of where you will be getting out of the trade if it's a loser. If the trade becomes a winner and profits begin to accrue, you may want to employ "trailing stops," whereby protective stops are adjusted to help lock in a profit should the market turn against your position.
2013-10-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Overnight Rate Target]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
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Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per centThe Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy is expected to expand modestly in 2013, although its near-term dynamic has changed and the composition of growth is now slightly less favourable for Canada. The U.S. economy is softer than expected but as fiscal headwinds dissipate and household deleveraging ends, growth should accelerate through 2014 and 2015. The nascent recovery in Europe, while modest, has surprised on the upside. China’s economy is showing renewed momentum, while growth in a number of other emerging market economies has slowed as their financial conditions have tightened. Overall, the global economy is projected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2013 and accelerate to 3.4 per cent in 2014 and 3.6 per cent in 2015.
In Canada, uncertain global and domestic economic conditions are delaying the pick-up in exports and business investment, leaving the level of economic activity lower than the Bank had been expecting. While household spending remains solid, slower growth of household credit and higher mortgage interest rates point to a gradual unwinding of household imbalances. The Bank expects that a better balance between domestic and foreign demand will be achieved over time and that growth will become more self-sustaining. Real GDP growth is projected to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2013 to 2.3 per cent in 2014 and 2.6 per cent in 2015. The Bank expects that the economy will return gradually to full production capacity, around the end of 2015.
Gold Prices Finding Interim Resistance Below $1350/oz Level
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1342.57, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 61.8% level at 1364.06. Near-term support is at 1321.09, the 38.2% Fib. A reversal back beneath that eyes the 23.6% Fib at 1294.51.
2013-10-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Less Than Expected In August
With the value of imports and exports showing little change in the month of August, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing that the U.S. trade deficit for the month widened only slightly.
The report said the trade deficit ticked up to $38.8 billion in August from a revised $38.6 billion in July. Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $40.0 billion from the $39.1 billion originally reported for the previous month.
The Commerce Department said the value of imports was virtually unchanged at $228.0 billion, while the value of exports edged down to $189.2 billion from $189.3 billion.
2013-10-24 13:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Markit Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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US: Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 in October
The advanced gauge of the manufacturing PMI sponsored by Markit dropped to 51.1 for the month of October, missing the median at 52.5 and down from September’s 52.8
US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered as expected after showing a Spinning Top candlestick at support marked by a rising trend line set from late February. Buyers are now testing resistance at 1754.40, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, with a Harami candlestick pattern warning a pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1729.00, the 76.4% Fib.Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for the 123.6% level at 1779.80.
The U.K. economy is expected to expand another 0.8% in the third-quarter, and a faster rate of growth may spark fresh monthly highs in the British Pound amid the shift in the policy outlook.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 10/25/2013 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: 0.8%
Previous: 0.7%
Forecast: 0.7% to 0.9%
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule amid the stronger-than-expected recovery in the U.K., and an upbeat GDP report may encourage the central bank to adopt a more hawkish tone at the November 7 meeting as the outlook for growth and inflation picks up.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
The larger-than-expected decline in unemployment along with the rise in private sector consumption may prompt an upbeat GDP report, and a faster rate of growth may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the sterling as the BoE moves away from its easing cycle.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
However, the deterioration in global trade paired with the slowdown in business outputs may limit the scope of seeing a strong GDP print, and a dismal result may spark a more meaningful correction in the GBPUSD as the pair continues to hold below key resistance.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: 3Q GDP Expands 0.8% or Greater
- Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBPUSD trade
- If reaction favors a buy trade, long GBPUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Growth Rate DisappointsPotential Price Targets For The Release
U.K. GDP increased another 0.6% in the second-quarter after climbing 0.3% during the first three-months of the year, and it seems as though a British economy is getting on a more sustainable path as it skirts a triple-dip recession. Despite the in-line print, the bearish reaction in the GBPUSD pushed the exchange rate below the 1.5300 handle, but the sterling regained its footing during the North American trade to end the day at 1.5387.
Just about New Home Sales news event which we should get yesterday at 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) :
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US new home sales date delayed
US new home sales data for September will be released with the October data release, which has been rescheduled to 4 December.The US Department of Commerce says economic indicators have been delayed because of the recent lapse in federal funding.
2013-10-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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