Press review - page 39

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-10-23 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

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Australia Q3 Inflation +1.2% On Quarter

Consumer prices in Australia climbed 1.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was higher than forecasts for an increase of 0.8 percent following the 0.4 percent gain in the second quarter.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for automotive fuel (up 7.6 percent), international holiday travel and accommodation (6.1 percent), electricity (4.4 percent), property rates and charges (7.9 percent), water and sewerage (9.9 percent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (3.5 percent).

The most significant offsetting price fall this quarter was for vegetables (down 4.5 percent).

By individual component, prices for transportation were up 2.4 percent on quarter, followed by housing (2.0 percent), recreation (1.9 percent), clothing (1.1 percent), alcohol (0.9 percent) and insurance (0.4 percent).

On a yearly basis, consumer prices were up 2.2 percent - also exceeding expectations for 1.8 percent after gaining 2.4 percent in the previous three months.

By individual component, prices for education jumped 5.6 percent on year, followed by health (4.1 percent), housing and alcohol (4.0 percent each), transportation (2.7 percent) and communications (1.8 percent).

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean was up 0.7 percent on quarter - topping forecasts for 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous quarter following a revision from 0.5 percent.

On year, the trimmed mean was up 2.3 percent - beating expectations for 2.1 percent and unchanged from Q2 following an upward revision from 2.2 percent.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Where Are The Stops? Tuesday, October 22: Gold And Silver

Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.



Stop Orders Defined

Stop orders in trading markets can be used for three purposes: One: To minimize a loss on a long or short position (protective stop). Two: To protect a profit on an existing long or short position (protective stop). Three: To initiate a new long or short position. A buy stop order is placed above the market and a sell stop order is placed below the market. Once the stop price is touched, the order is treated like a "market order" and will be filled at the best possible price.

Most stop orders are located and placed based upon key technical support or resistance levels on the daily chart, which if breached, would significantly change the near-term technical posture of that market.

Having a good idea, beforehand, where the buy and sell stops are located can give an active trader a better idea regarding at what price level buying or selling pressure will become intensified in that market.

The major advantage of using protective stops is that, before a trade is initiated, you have a pretty good idea of where you will be getting out of the trade if it's a loser. If the trade becomes a winner and profits begin to accrue, you may want to employ "trailing stops," whereby protective stops are adjusted to help lock in a profit should the market turn against your position.

Where Are The Stops? Tuesday, October 22: Gold And Silver | Kitco Commentary
Where Are The Stops? Tuesday, October 22: Gold And Silver | Kitco Commentary
  • www.kitco.com
Editor's Note: Introducing Kitco's latest addition to its industry-leading metals markets reports: Jim Wyckoff's "Where Are the Stops?" daily report. Professional traders have a very good idea of price levels at which buy and sell stop orders are located on a daily basis. And now you will, too! If pre-placed buy or sell stop order are...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-10-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Overnight Rate Target]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

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Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent


The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

The global economy is expected to expand modestly in 2013, although its near-term dynamic has changed and the composition of growth is now slightly less favourable for Canada. The U.S. economy is softer than expected but as fiscal headwinds dissipate and household deleveraging ends, growth should accelerate through 2014 and 2015. The nascent recovery in Europe, while modest, has surprised on the upside. China’s economy is showing renewed momentum, while growth in a number of other emerging market economies has slowed as their financial conditions have tightened. Overall, the global economy is projected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2013 and accelerate to 3.4 per cent in 2014 and 3.6 per cent in 2015.

In Canada, uncertain global and domestic economic conditions are delaying the pick-up in exports and business investment, leaving the level of economic activity lower than the Bank had been expecting. While household spending remains solid, slower growth of household credit and higher mortgage interest rates point to a gradual unwinding of household imbalances. The Bank expects that a better balance between domestic and foreign demand will be achieved over time and that growth will become more self-sustaining. Real GDP growth is projected to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2013 to 2.3 per cent in 2014 and 2.6 per cent in 2015. The Bank expects that the economy will return gradually to full production capacity, around the end of 2015.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Gold Prices Finding Interim Resistance Below $1350/oz Level




GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1342.57, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 61.8% level at 1364.06. Near-term support is at 1321.09, the 38.2% Fib. A reversal back beneath that eyes the 23.6% Fib at 1294.51.
Dollar Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted
Dollar Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, SPX 500 Pullback Hinted
  • Ilya Spivak
  • www.dailyfx.com
The US Dollar looks vulnerable to a further downward push while SPX 500 technical positioning warns a pullback may be in the cards.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-10-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -38.65B
  • forecast data is -39.50B
  • actual data is -38.80B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

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U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Less Than Expected In August

With the value of imports and exports showing little change in the month of August, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing that the U.S. trade deficit for the month widened only slightly.

The report said the trade deficit ticked up to $38.8 billion in August from a revised $38.6 billion in July. Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $40.0 billion from the $39.1 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department said the value of imports was virtually unchanged at $228.0 billion, while the value of exports edged down to $189.2 billion from $189.3 billion.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-10-24 13:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Markit Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

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US: Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 in October


The advanced gauge of the manufacturing PMI sponsored by Markit dropped to 51.1 for the month of October, missing the median at 52.5 and down from September’s 52.8



Markit Economics - Press releases
  • www.markiteconomics.com
To receive the underlying data to our press releases, please email economics@markit.com. Note: all times are UK time. * released 2 minutes earlier on Reuters
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower

  • S&P 500 Technical Setup Continues to Warn of a Pullback Ahead
  • Gold Expected to Continue Higher After Clearing Fib Resistance



S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered as expected after showing a Spinning Top candlestick at support marked by a rising trend line set from late February. Buyers are now testing resistance at 1754.40, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, with a Harami candlestick pattern warning a pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1729.00, the 76.4% Fib.Alternatively, a push above resistance aims for the 123.6% level at 1779.80.


US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower
US Dollar Stalls at Chart Support, SPX 500 May Turn Lower
  • Ilya Spivak
  • www.dailyfx.com
broke support in the 10416-24 area, marked by April’s shelf support and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, to expose the 50% level at 10374. A further push beneath that eyes the 10323-31 region, defined by the June 1 2012 swing high and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a reversal back above 10424 targets the 23.6% expansion at 10468. Buyers are now...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Trading the News: U.K. Gross Domestic Product

The U.K. economy is expected to expand another 0.8% in the third-quarter, and a faster rate of growth may spark fresh monthly highs in the British Pound amid the shift in the policy outlook.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 10/25/2013 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: 0.8%
Previous: 0.7%
Forecast: 0.7% to 0.9%

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule amid the stronger-than-expected recovery in the U.K., and an upbeat GDP report may encourage the central bank to adopt a more hawkish tone at the November 7 meeting as the outlook for growth and inflation picks up.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The larger-than-expected decline in unemployment along with the rise in private sector consumption may prompt an upbeat GDP report, and a faster rate of growth may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the sterling as the BoE moves away from its easing cycle.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, the deterioration in global trade paired with the slowdown in business outputs may limit the scope of seeing a strong GDP print, and a dismal result may spark a more meaningful correction in the GBPUSD as the pair continues to hold below key resistance.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: 3Q GDP Expands 0.8% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBPUSD trade
  • If reaction favors a buy trade, long GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Growth Rate Disappoints
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction



Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Retains Weekly Range Ahead of 3Q GDP; Maintains Upward Trend Since July
  • Relative Strength Index Threatening Bearish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6300 Pivot (2012 highs)
  • Interim Support: 1.5900-10 (78.6% Fibonacci expansion)


U.K. GDP increased another 0.6% in the second-quarter after climbing 0.3% during the first three-months of the year, and it seems as though a British economy is getting on a more sustainable path as it skirts a triple-dip recession. Despite the in-line print, the bearish reaction in the GBPUSD pushed the exchange rate below the 1.5300 handle, but the sterling regained its footing during the North American trade to end the day at 1.5387.

Trading U.K. 3Q GDP- British Pound Eyes 1.6300 Resistance
Trading U.K. 3Q GDP- British Pound Eyes 1.6300 Resistance
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
The U.K. economy is expected to expand another 0.8% in the third-quarter, and a faster rate of growth may spark fresh monthly highs in the British Pound amid the shift in the policy outlook. Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule amid the stronger-than-expected...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Just about New Home Sales news event which we should get yesterday at 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) :

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US new home sales date delayed

US new home sales data for September will be released with the October data release, which has been rescheduled to 4 December.

The US Department of Commerce says economic indicators have been delayed because of the recent lapse in federal funding.
US new home sales date delayed | 24 October 2013 | Stock Market Wire
US new home sales date delayed | 24 October 2013 | Stock Market Wire
  • www.stockmarketwire.com
MoneyAM website is aimed at investors of all levels of experience including City professionals, investors and full-time traders. Free live share prices Free live watch lists UK and Worldwide Indices Live market News Company Fundamentals Charts - Intraday and historic Stock Portfolio Broker Forecasts Brokerforecasts.com publishes equity...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-10-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

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