Press review - page 43

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-05 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Services PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

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UK Service Sector Activity Rises At Fastest Pace Since 1997

British service sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than sixteen years in October, a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS) revealed Tuesday.

The headline seasonally adjusted business activity index rose to 62.5 in October from September's 60.3. The October reading represented the sharpest rise in activity since May 1997.

"This has largely been the result of rising levels of incoming new business placed with service providers as market sentiment has improved in line with a strengthened economic climate," Markit said.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Gold Prices Could Drop Thursday As It Is Only A Matter Of Time Before ECB Cuts Rates

(Kitco News) - Although the European Central Bank is not expected to cut interest rates when they meet on Thursday, some analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before rates are lowered, dragging down the euro and gold prices.

Gold News, Gold Market, Mining Companies, Silver News | Kitco News
Gold News, Gold Market, Mining Companies, Silver News | Kitco News
  • www.kitco.com
Kitco News) - Although the European Central Bank is not expected to cut interest rates when they meet on Thursday, some analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before rates are lowered, dragging down the euro and gold prices. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said there has been a major shift in expectations ahead...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
2013-11-06 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - 10-y Bond Auction]
  • past data is 0.68|3.7
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is 0.61|3.7 according to the latest press release

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'X.XX|X.X' format :

  • first number is the average interest rate of the bonds sold
  • second number is the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted)
Auction Calendar November 2013
Auction Calendar November 2013
  • www.mof.go.jp
Auction DateIssueAuction AnnouncementAuction ResultNon-price - competitive Auction II (2) Buy-back (3) Borrowing Auction DateBorrowing DateIssue Borrowing of Special Account for the Allotment of Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax (Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax Allotment Account) (Approx...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-06 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

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U.K. Industrial Output Rebounds In September

British industrial production bounced back in September after two consecutive declines, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The rebound was stronger than expected by economists.

Total production rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in September following a 1.5 percent fall in August and a 1.1 percent decline in July. The consensus was for an increase of 1.8 percent.

Manufacturing output grew 0.8 percent annually in September. This comes after a 0.2 percent fall in August and a 0.4 percent drop in July. The outcome matched economists' forecast.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

With the greenback below its 200-day moving average, how are you trading the dollar index?

The U.S. dollar index has come under enormous pressure in recent sessions. The index fell to a nine-month low of 78.9 last week, and is down over 4 percent from September's one-month peak of 82.67.

This week's Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting is expected to pose further downside risk to the index.

Markets are already pricing in expectations that the central bank will hold off on any reduction in its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program until next year, which could result in limited movement for major currency crosses.

"In any case, the Fed will probably consider it way too premature to initiate 'taper' just yet. As such, we expect this week's FOMC to be uneventful," said Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank.

The index fell below its 200-day simple moving average of 81.75 on September 16 and has been steadily falling ever since. In light of its recent weakness, how are you trading the dollar index?
With the greenback below its 200-day moving average, how are you trading the dollar index?
With the greenback below its 200-day moving average, how are you trading the dollar index?
  • www.cnbc.com
Markets are already pricing in expectations that the central bank will hold off on any reduction in its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program until next year, which could result in limited movement for major currency crosses. "In any case, the Fed will probably consider it way too premature to initiate...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-06 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | CAD - Ivey PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

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Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 62.8 in October

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index was at 62.8 on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, indicating that purchasing activity in Canada expanded from September.

The index, which measures changes in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada, is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University.

An index greater than 50 indicates an expansion of purchasing activity, while an index below 50 indicates a decline. The median forecast for October based on economists surveyed by Dow Jones was 51.5.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-07 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | AUD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

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Australia October Unemployment Rate 5.7%

The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.7 percent in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was in line with expectations and up from 5.6 percent in September.

However, the Australian economy added just 1,100 jobs in October to 11,639,200 - well shy of forecasts forecast for 10,000.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (based on Euro to Resume Bullish Trend on Less-Dovish ECB article)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain its current policy in November, but the Governing Council may show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle amid the growth threat for deflation.

What’s Expected:

Time of release:11/07/2013 12:45 GMT, 7:45 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.50%
Previous: 0.50%
Forecast: 0.50%

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, there’s growing bets that the ECB will deliver another rate before the end of the year, but we may see President Mario Draghi implement his own style of ‘verbal intervention’ as European policy makers look for a weaker Euro exchange rate.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the ECB interest rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our other trade setups as the press conference with President Draghi ends with a Q&A session

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Sees Need for More Monetary Stimulus
  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the decision/statement to consider a short Euro trade
  • If market reaction favors a short trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council to Remain on Sideline
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction
Euro to Resume Bullish Trend on Less-Dovish ECB
Euro to Resume Bullish Trend on Less-Dovish ECB
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain its current policy in November, but the Governing Council may show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle amid the growth threat for deflation. Indeed, there’s growing bets that the ECB will deliver another rate before the end of the year, but we may see...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-11-07 12:45 GMT (or 13:45 MQ MT5 time) | EUR - Interest Rate]

  • past data is  0.50%
  • forecast data is  0.50%
  • actual data is  0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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ECB Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate To New Low

The European Central Bank sprung a surprise on Thursday by cutting the key interest rate to a record low in November, yielding to intense market speculation for such a move, given the combination of low inflation, record unemployment and a stronger currency.

The Governing Council, led by ECB President Mario Draghi, cut the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to record low 0.25 percent, following the rate-setting session in Frankfurt. Previously, the bank slashed the rate by a quarter-point in May, which was the first reduction in nine months.

ECB: 2013
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
16/12/2013 Statement by the EC, ECB, and IMF on the tenth review mission to Portugal, en .  pt 16/12/2013 Danièle Nouy appointed as Chair of the Supervisory Board, bg .  cs .  da .  de .  el .  en .  es .  et .  fi .  fr .  hr .  hu .  it .  lt .  lv .  mt .  nl .  pl .  pt .  ro .  sk .  sl .  sv 16/12/2013...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
2013-11-08 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]

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RBA: Further Rate Cuts Are Possible

The Reserve Bank of Australia has trimmed interest rates nearly in half in recent months in an effort to stimulate the economy - but the central bank won't ruled out still more rate cuts if the situation warrants it, the RBA said on Friday in its quarterly statement on monetary policy.

The RBA said that unemployment is expected to rise and GDP is likely to remain below trend at 2.5 percent - while inflation figures to remain comfortably low at 1.5 to 2.5 percent, all of which adds to the case for further stimulus.

But the bank - which cut rates by 25 basis points in August - wants to make sure it allows enough time for the stimulus to work its way into the economy.

"The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time," the RBA said.

RBA: Statement on Monetary Policy-November 2013
  • www.rba.gov.au
Overview International Economic Developments International and Foreign Exchange Markets Box A: Foreign Currency Exposure and Hedging in Australia Domestic Economic Conditions Box B: The Increase in the Unemployment Rate Box C: The...