Press review - page 506

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017,April 09 - April 16 (based on the article)

EUR/USD made its way to lower ground, struggling to gain ground. The week including Good Friday features business surveys and also some inflation figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week 

Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. A score of 20.1 is expected.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. A small slide to 25 is on the cards.

Industrial Production: Tuesday, 9:00. A more modest rise of 0.2% is expected.

German CPI (final): Thursday, 6:00.

French CPI (final):  Thursday, 6:45.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Next week, a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen is likely to reiterate an intent to press on with stimulus withdrawal and CPI data is expected to show a pickup in core inflation. That may keep the greenback marching higher as traders weigh the US policy path against standstill elsewhere in the G10."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Market participants may put increased emphasis on the fresh rhetoric coming out of the FOMC with Chair Janet Yellen scheduled speak next week, and the greenback may stage a larger advance over the days ahead should the central bank head show a greater willingness to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The intertest rate backdrop is that US rates will continue to rise while their Aussie counterparts are going nowhere this year, and possibly into next (protracted hostilities involving the US in Syria could change all this, of course). The Reserve Bank of Australia has said little which might challenge this view. More importantly, it put its worries about a stronger currency front and center in the minutes of its last monetary policy conclave. This is not an environment conducive to a higher Australian Dollar."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Among all the event risks, exports and imports reads could have a greater direct impact to the Dollar/Yuan than others. China has been shifting from an export-driven economy to domestic-consumption-driven. However, this will need to take a long process; so far, Chinese producers still largely rely on international demand. In the U.S.-China leaders meeting, Trump told that the U.S. has “made progress” in the relationship with China and “lots of very potentially bad problems will be going away”. The bilateral trade issue is considered to be one of those “bad problems”. For China, avoiding major conflict with its U.S. counterpart will give it more time to upgrade the manufacturing industries that still heavily depend on exports, and in turn, will help to stabilize the economic growth when a slowdown is already seen."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "The oil market also faces a couple of important data releases next week which could push the market if tensions in Syria ease. The monthly OPEC report is released on Wednesday April 12, providing traders with a detailed analysis of key developments in world oil demand, supply and the closely watched oil market balance. The US EIA crude oil inventories are also released on Wednesday, ahead of the IEA oil market report on Thursday and the Baker Hughes oil rig count on Friday April 14."

[Sergey Golubev]

CAC 40 - daily bullish with 5,132 resistance level to be testing (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The bullish trend is going to be continuing with ascending triangle pattern together with 5,132 level to be broken, otherwise - bullsh ranging within the levels.

• "The CAC 40 is now retracing its early morning gains after initially trading to a fresh 2017 high to start today’s session. As the market stands now, the CAC 40 is trading down -0.44% for Monday’s trading. Top Winners for the CAC 40 include Nokia (+0.85%) and Solvay (+0.57%). Top Losers for the Index includes Airbus (-1.59%) and Societe Generale (-1.58%)."
• "Technically the CAC 40 has just put in a new high at 5,152.00 in an ongoing uptrend. As prices back down from this point, the Index remains supported above its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average) found at 5,104.19. If prices remain supported near present levels, traders may look for the CAC 40 to rebound later in the week towards new yearly highs. However if the CAC 40 continues to turn lower, a bearish breakout may next expose the standing April monthly low at 5,054.80."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng Index (HSI): Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

2017-04-10 21:10 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = The speech at the University of Michigan.

==========

From wsj article - "Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen Sees Monetary Policy Shifting":

• "Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated Monday that the era of extremely stimulative monetary policy was coming to an end."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events

==========

Hang Seng Index M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-04-11 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 2.3%
• forecast data is 2.2%
• actual data is 2.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

• "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.3% in March 2017, unchanged from February."
• "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was also 2.3% in March 2017, unchanged from February."

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: bullish ranging near bearish reversal level (based on the article)

Daily price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.2358 support level located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started, and
• 1.2557 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed.

"Cable responded to the 50% retracement of the March advance at 1.2362 this week with the rebound now approaching initial resistance targets. The broader focus remains weighted to the topside while above 1.23 / the lower parallel (blue) with a breach above the monthly open needed to validate a more meaningful reversal targeting confluence resistance at the 200-day moving average at ~1.2630s & key resistance at 1.2675-1.2706."