Press review - page 505

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - bearish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 112.19/110.10 narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

"The former level is being tested now and January lows near 112.60 still present a hurdle.” USD/JPY ended up rolling over between 111.60 and 112.60 (high was 112.20). The rally failing in the middle of congestion doesn’t bode well for near term upside but price is still hanging on to a parallel. Failure to gain traction now (above this parallel) opens up 108.55."

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily rally; the key levels are 57 and 50

2017-04-05 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 0.9M
• forecast data is -0.1M
• actual data is 1.6M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish ranging reversal. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on bearish ranging within 54.54 resistance level and 54.26 support level waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

If the price breaks 54.54 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 54.26 support so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: rally. The price is breaking 54.35 resistance level to above for the secondary rally to be continuing within the primary bearish market condition.

If daily price breaks 54.35 resistance on close daily bar so the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
If the price breaks 57.02 resistance on close bar so the daily price will be reversed to the bullish trend.
If the price breaks 50.01 support level to below so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD after FOMC Minutes (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging area of the chart for the wwaiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started. The price is breaking 0.7544 support level to below for the 0.7490 nearest daily target which is loacted near Senkou Span line on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

• "The AUD/USD is rebounding from fresh daily lows, as US Dollar pairs are now processing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from March 15th. This event has been marked as a high importance release on the economic calendar, with traders searching for clues inside of last month’s minutes to help determine potential shifts in policy from the FED."
• "Technically the AUD/USD remains in a long term uptrend, with the pair remaining supported by its 200 day MVA (simple moving average) at .7552. If this uptrend is set to continue, traders will look for the pair to next breakout above its short term 10 day EMA (exponential moving average). This line is found at .7614, and a breakout above this EMA would suggest a bullish shift in the markets short term trend. If the AUD/USD fails to breakout higher in the short term, traders may watch for a bearish shift in the market below the previously mentioned 200 day MVA. A breakout below this line should be seen as significant. In this bearish scenario, traders may begin to target the standing March 2017 low found at .7505."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - bearish signal with descending triangle pattern; 0.6938 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on testing 0.6938 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be resumed.

• "The New Zealand Dollar may be preparing to re-accelerate downward for a challenge of lows established in early March against its US counterpart. Prices appear to have cleared the bottom of their near-term digestion range, paving the way for resumption of the downtrend begun in early February."
• "Partial profit was taken on a NZDUSD position activated at 0.7205. The next leg lower may now be getting underway and the trade has been scaled back up to full size at 0.6974, bringing the cumulative cost basis to 0.7090. Exposure will be cut in half again upon hitting the next downside target at 0.6905. A stop-loss on the full trade will be activated on a daily close above 0.7005."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and Bitcoin/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims

2017-04-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 259K
• forecast data is 251K
• actual data is 234K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From rttnews article:

• "With the monthly jobs report looming, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing a much bigger than expected drop in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended April 1st."
• "The report said initial jobless claims fell to 234,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level of 259,000."

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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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BTC/USD M5: ange price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Japanese Yen, Gold Prices Rise as US Strikes Syria

noorad sharafi, 2017.04.07 05:00

Japanese Yen

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - inside the ranging area for the bearish to be resumed or for the bullish reversal to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is below 200-day SMA and above 100-day SMA for the bullish ranging market condition. The price is within 1.2614/1.2421 support/resistance levels waiting for the bearish trend to be resumed or for the bullish reversal to be started.

• "Bulls of GBP/USD will be encouraged by a well-defined pennant formation on the daily chart (see below), a continuation pattern that points to further strength after the pair’s climb from 1.2113 on March 14 to 1.2613 on March 27. If the formation works as it should in theory, a break to the upside above 1.2465 in a few days’ time could lead to an advance equivalent to the height of the “flagpole” – that five-big-figure advance between March 14 and March 27 – taking it to 1.2965."
• "Moreover, there is plenty of support for the exchange rate at its current level. It has already held twice this week at the trendline support from that recent low on March 14, while the 50-day and 100-day moving averages both lie just below the current 1.2470 at close to 1.24."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH, Apple shares and McDonald's shares: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-04-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 219K
• forecast data is 174K
• actual data is 98K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

• "The unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent in March, and total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in mining, while retail trade lost jobs."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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Apple M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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McDonald's M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold Technical Analysis - daily ranging within 100-day SMA/200-day SMA waiting for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA area waiting fr the strong trend to be started. For now, the price is on breaking 200 SMA together with 1,263 resistance level to above for the reversal of the daily price movement from the bearish ranging to the primary bullish market condition.

• "U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday showed a gain of only 98K but the underlying metrics were strong with the headline unemployment rate falling to 4.5%, its lowest reading since mid-2007. The under-employment rate (U6) also saw an outsized downtick to the tune of 8.9% from 9.2%. Gold spiked on the release only to reverse sharply early in the US session."
• "Heading into next week, the trade remains vulnerable sub-1258 with interim support eyed at 1241- Note that a longer-term median-line rests just lower and a break below this level would suggest a more meaningful correction is underway with such a scenario targeting February 27th weekly reversal close at 1234 & the Janay highs at 1220. Critical resistance remains up at 1278/79, where the 100% etc. & the 61.8% retracement converges on long-term slope resistance."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017,April 09 - April 16 (based on the article)

The US dollar eventually emerged as a winner from a tense week. Is this the beginning of a trend? A speech by Janet Yellen, a rate decision in Canada, Australian employment data, US inflation data, and US consumer figures stand out. These are the main events on forex calendar.

Janet Yellen speaks: Monday, 20:00. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the University of Michigan, taking questions from the audience.

UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK inflation is expected to reach 2.2% this time.

Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.

Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. A job gain of 20,300 is predicted in March with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.9%.

US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expect producer prices to be flat this time.

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Jobless claims are expected to reach 242,000 this week.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Thursday, 14:00. Consumer moral is expected to remain elevated at 97.1 in April.

US inflation data: Friday, 12:30. CPI is expected to remain unchanged, while core inflation is anticipated to rise by 0.2% in Mach.

US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. US retail sales are expected to increase by 0.1% with a 0.2% gain in core sales.