Press review - page 482

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - daily bullish ranging waiting for the bullish to be resumed or to the ranging bearish reversal (based on the article)

Dax Index daily is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

• 11,892 resistance located far above Senkou Span line in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 11,403 support level located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

If the price breaks 11,892 resistance on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 11,403 support level to below so the reversal to the bearish condition will be started with the secondary ranging way - the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

 

• "It’s been a sharp turnaround – easy come, easy go – with yesterday accounting for a large share of the recent losses. This puts the DAX in an interesting spot. The breakout from the high-level base failed, and if it doesn’t turn the downward momentum around quickly, more is likely to come. A break below 11500 would put 11408/25 into play, and below there the top-side trend-line running back to April, currently clocking in just above 11300."
• "The decline could turn out to be a short-lived pullback, but the market needs to turn, and do-so quickly. Today's gap higher may be a start, but too soon to tell. The decline from near 11900 was fairly violent, and suggests more downward momentum could be on its way. If 11500 can hold up, then the DAX could find itself setting up for higher prices; a scenario in which we’ll need to see constructive price action before becoming confident about."

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold (XAU/USD) Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision (based on the article)

Daily price is below 200-day SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 1,220/1,122 levels waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started. If the price breaks 1,122 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed. Alternative, if the price breaks 1,220 resistance level so the secondary rally will be started with 1,264 nearest daily target as the bullish reversal level.

• "After declining last week from yearly highs, Gold prices are beginning to rebound ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. Expectations for the event are set to see key rates held at 0.75%, and it should be noted that no press conference is schedule this cycle for Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Despite markets expecting little in the way of policy changes, traders should be reminded that this event can still drastically increase volatility for US Dollar based assets such as gold prices."
• "Technically, gold prices are rebounding and trading back above its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), which is providing short term support at $1,199.85. This bullish resurgence in price, suggests that last week’s dip to $1,184.45 was simply a retracement in a developing uptrend. If gold prices continue to rally, traders will next target the standing 2017 high at $1,220.25. Alternatively, if the commodity stalls near present levels, a breakout under $1,180.65 may suggest a resumption of golds ongoing long term downtrend."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 53 pips range price movement

2017-02-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 2.04B
• forecast data is 2.00B
• actual data is 3.51B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,193m in December 2016, an increase of $916m (72%) on the surplus in November 2016."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,511m in December 2016, an increase of $1,471m (72%) on the surplus in November 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 53 pips range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD ahead of Bank of England Interest Rates (based on the article)

M5 price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.2701 resistance level located far above 200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.2659 support level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

If the price breaks 1.2701 resistance to above on close M5 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 1.2659 support level on close M5 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

• "Fresh forecasts from BoE officials may highlight 'a slightly lower path for inflation than envisaged in the November Inflation Report’ as the central bank continues to assess sterling’s effect on U.K. price growth, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may stick to the highly accommodative policy stance throughout 2017 especially as the U.K. prepares to depart from the European Union (EU). Nevertheless, Governor Carney may stress ‘there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated’ as the central bank anticipates a notable increase in price growth, and an unexpected upward revision in the quarterly inflation report (QIR) may fuel a larger recovery in GBP/USD as it boosts interest rate expectations."

• "However, signs of stronger-than-expected growth paired with the pickup in U.K. wage growth may encourage the MPC to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy, and an unexpected upward revision to the quarterly inflation report may heighten the appeal of sterling as market participants scale back bets for additional monetary support."

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

CNY Manufacturing

Mauro Giuseppe Tondo, 2017.02.02 19:21

this night

02:45 Caixin Manufactoring Pmi

Cons 51.9 prev 51.9 Act?

[Sergey Golubev]

Hong Kong PMI slips to contraction; Hang Seng China Enterprises Index with the daily correction to be started (based on the article)

"Business conditions in Hong Kong swung to stagnation in January, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Friday with a PMI score of 49.9. That's down from 50.3 in December, and it moves beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction."

HSCE was bounced from 23,480 resistance level to belowfor 22,965 support level to be testing for the secondary correction to be started.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 112 pips range price movement

2017-02-03 01:45 GMT | [CNH - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.9
• forecast data is 51.8
• actual data is 51.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)

[CNH - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

• "The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 51.0 in January to signal a further improvement in the health of the sector. However, the reading was down from December’s 47-month record of 51.9, and was consistent with only a marginal rate of improvement."

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USD/CNH M5: 112 pips range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH - weekly correction, daily bearish (adapted from the artile)

Weekly price is above Ichimoku cloud: the price was bounced from 6.9869 resistance level to below for support level at 6.7818 to be testing for the correction to be started.

• "The People's Bank of China unexpectedly raised its interest rates on open market operations and funds provided through Standing Lending Facility on Friday, adding to speculation of further tightening ahead."
• "The central bank raised the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.35 percent. Similarly, the 14-day reverse repo rate was lifted to 2.5 percent."
• "The overnight rate for the Standing Lending Facility loan was hiked to 3.1 percent from 2.75 percent. The tightening measure is set to control the over-leveraging of Chinese corporates."

Daily price in on bearish ranging located below Ichimoku cloud within the following s/r levels:

• 6.8770 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
• 6.7996 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Chinkou Span line and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend as the ranging bearish, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as the bullish.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Good news for Gold and Silver

Tomas Sekeres, 2017.02.03 16:35

 

Inflation up in January in Top 4 Euro Economics. Good news for Gold and Silver.

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-02-03 13:30 GMT | [USD -Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 157K
• forecast data is 170K
• actual data is 227K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD -Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities."

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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events