Press review - page 481

[Sergey Golubev]

Markets To Watch In The Week Ahead: Dow Jones Industrial Average (based on the article)

DJIA daily is testing 20,125 resistance level together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the primary bullish market condition to be continuing.

• "The Dow ended the week well above 20,000 as investors bet on the pro-growth policies of President Trump and continue to push stocks to new heights."

[Sergey Golubev]

Kitco - Fed Unlikely To Provide Support For Gold Next Week (based on the article)

Daily chart is located inside Ichimoku cloud: the price is near and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

• "Most analysts said that gold could test the lower bounds of its current range even if the Fed is expected to stick to a fairly tight script ahead of January’s nonfarm payrolls report due for release Friday. Gold could see continued pressure as it prepares to close the week in negative territory, ending its four-week winning streak. February gold futures settled at $1,188.40 an ounce, down more than 1% since last week."
• "Markets are not expecting to see any surprises at Wednesday’s policy meeting conclusion; CME 30-Day Fed Fund futures are pricing in only a 4% chance of a rate hike."
• "Expectations pick up in March as markets price in a 25% chance of a rate hike. June is seen as the most likely month for the first rate hike of the year with markets pricing in an almost 70% chance of a 25 basis-point move."

If the price breaks 1,219.58 resistance level to above on daily close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 1,180.48 support level to below on daily close bar so the ranging bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction fo the strong trend to be started.

• "While gold ended the week near a two-week low, the market has managed to hold key support above $1,182 an ounce. Analysts said this is the first level to watch as prices try to find some support."
• "Hansen said that if gold falls below $1,182 an ounce, there will be an important battle for support between $1,172 and $1,160. A break of these channels could lead to a test of the 2016 lows."
• "Baruch added that he is also watching the $1,160 level and agreed that if that support area breaks, the next level to watch will be $1,150 an ounce."
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index: U.S. Personal Income and U.S. Pending Home Sales news event (adapted from the article)

• "Personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday. The report said personal income rose by 0.3 percent in December after inching up by 0.1 percent in November. Economists had expected income to rise by 0.4 percent."
• "NAR said its pending home sales index jumped 1.6 percent to 109.0 in December after tumbling by 2.5 percent to 107.3 in November. Economists had expected pending home sales to increase by 0.6 percent. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "Pending sales rebounded last month as enough buyers fended off rising mortgage rates and alarmingly low inventory levels to sign a contract". "The main storyline in the early months of 2017 will be if supply can meaningfully increase to keep price growth at a moderate enough level for households to absorb higher borrowing costs," he added. "Sales will struggle to build on last year's strong pace if inventory conditions don't improve."

The Dollar Index M5 timeframe was bounced from 101 resistance level to below to 100.37 support level by 200 SMA reversal area to be crossing. For now, M5 timeframed price is located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 100.23/100.48 levels for the waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Interest Rates and 49 pips range price movement

2017-01-31 02:56 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Policy Rate]

• past data is -0.10%
• forecast data is -0.10%
• actual data is -0.10% according to the latest press release

[JPY - BOJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ.

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From official report:

• "As for the conduct of monetary policy, the Bank will continue with "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control," aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner. The Bank will make policy adjustments as appropriate, taking account of developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions, with a view to maintaining the momentum toward achieving the price stability target."

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USD/JPY M5: 49 pips range price movement by Bank of Japan Interest Rates news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 17 pips range price movement

2017-01-31 08:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech to deliver opening remarks at a joint conference by the European Central Bank and the European Commission, in Frankfurt.

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From official report:

• "First, let me say a few words on financial integration, which is a focal point for two of our panels today. Promoting European financial integration is – besides the primary objective of price stability – a key objective of the Eurosystem. It is essential for a well-functioning single currency. Indeed, you can see financial integration and the single currency as two sides of the same coin: one basic motivation for the single currency was to maximise the benefits of the single market for capital. Conversely, it was understood that integrated financial markets would be necessary for an effective single currency."

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 80 pips range price movement

2017-01-31 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Real gross domestic product rose for the fifth time in six months, up 0.4% in November. The increase in November came mainly from higher output in manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, finance and insurance and construction."

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USD/CAD M5: 80 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) entered into oversold territory (based on the article)

XOM shares broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal area for the bearish condition: price is breaking 83.30 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. By the way, RSI value is going to oversold level which may be indicated the bearish breakdown or the reversal back to the bullish trend.

• "In trading on Tuesday, shares of Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) entered into oversold territory, changing hands as low as $83.13 per share. We define oversold territory using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a technical analysis indicator used to measure momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30." 
• "In the case of Exxon Mobil Corp, the RSI reading has hit 26.4 — by comparison, the universe of energy stocks covered by Energy Stock Channel currently has an average RSI of 48.0, the RSI of WTI Crude Oil is at 57.8, the RSI of Henry Hub Natural Gas is presently 41.2, and the 3-2-1 Crack Spread RSI is 39.5." 

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Jobless Rate and 65 pips range price movement

2017-01-31 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]

• past data is 4.9%
• forecast data is 4.8%
• actual data is 5.2% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quartey.

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From official report:

• Labour force participation continued to grow.
• Employment growth remained strong.
• Unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent.
• Wage growth steady.

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NZD/USD M5: 65 pips range price movement by New Zealand Jobless Rate news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 63 pips range price movement

2017-02-01 01:00 GMT | [CNH - Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.4
• forecast data is 51.2
• actual data is 51.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNH - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From businessinsider article:

"The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in January, albeit at a slightly slower pace, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.3."

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USD/CNH M5: 63 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil: an update on support levels for short position (based on the article)

WTI crude oil is testing 54/55 resistance area to above to be turned to the ranging market condition to be located within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area. The key support level is already formed by the price at 39.17 to be crossed for the weekly bearish trend to be resumed.

"The long-term chart of WTI crude oil shows how the 2016 bounce occurred off of the important $30 – $40 per barrel support zone, which is where the 2008 – 2009 crude oil bear market bottomed out as well. The fact that the “smart money” has shorted this bounce like crazy increases the chances that it’s a “dead-cat bounce” that leads to another correction. If the latter event occurs, I want to see how WTI crude oil acts at this support zone – if it breaks below, that would be a sign of even further weakness."

"Brent crude oil has a similar $30 – $40 per barrel support zone that is worth watching" :

"Even though OPEC recently agreed to cut production, the “smart money” (the actual producers and end-users of crude oil) doesn’t seem to be buying it – or at least its impact on the total world crude oil supply. They may also be hedging against a ramp-up of U.S. oil production, which is one of President Trump’s main goals for the next four years. For now, traders should continue to monitor the “smart money’s” crude oil short position, how WTI and Brent crude oil act at their $30 – $40 support zones, and if the U.S. Dollar Index is able to regain its 100 resistance level or if it corrects even further."