Press review - page 237

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Waiting to Re-Enter Short Trade (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.2615, 1.2507, 1.2332
  • Resistance:1.2783, 1.2958, 1.3100



The Euro recovered against US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracementat 1.2783 exposes the 38.2% level at 1.2958. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 1.2615 clears the way for a challenge of the 23.6% threshold at 1.2507.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

AUDIO - Forex Tuesday with Tim Pesut

Oil was crushed and more market instability is spreading. Master Trader Tim Pesut joins Merlin to talk about some pressing issues facing global currencies. Including: The US Dollar, the Euro, Putin, China, Oil and much more!


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  
2014-10-15 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity

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U.S. Retail Sales Fall More Than Expected In September

Retail sales in the U.S. fell by more than anticipated in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, with the decrease partly reflecting the recent drop in gas prices.

The report said retail sales dropped by 0.3 percent in September after climbing by 0.6 percent in August. Economists had been expecting sales to edge down by just 0.1 percent.

Excluding a pullback in auto sales, retail sales dipped by 0.2 percent in September compared to a 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. Ex-auto sales had been expected to rise by another 0.3 percent.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD consolidation continues (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • EUR/USD has traded in a sideways to higher range since finding support near 1.2500 at the start of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the euro while over 1.2605
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2012/2014 advance (polarity) at 1.2785 needs to be overcome to set off a more important correcttive move higher
  • Early next week is the next minor turn window in the rate
  • A close under 1.2605 would warn the downtrend has resumed ahead of schedule
EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding small long positions while above 1.2605.

InstrumentSupport 2Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
EUR/USD 1.2605 1.2645 1.2645 1.2700 1.2785
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

AUDIO - Wild Wednesday with Steve Moses

Markets had one of the more volatile days in a LONG time! Huge move down and then right back up! Options Master Steve Moses joins Merlin to break down how to handle this skyrocketing volatility! Steve also walks listeners through a current trade he opened this afternoon, which capitalizes on this volatility and will expire in 48 hours! The duo also answer several listener questions, did they answer yours? Tune in and find out!


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Looking for sellers near the days midpoint (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD is lower today and has been trading around the lows from 2013. Remember those lows came in at 1.2746 and 1.2757 respectively.  The 50% of the move up from yesterday comes in at the 1.27526.The current price is trading around these levels.


The initial claims were much better than expectations. The 4 week moving average of 283.5 is the lowest since June 2000. That is pretty good.  The Dow in pre-market is still down 192 and the S&P is down -25 points. Let’s see if that trend starts to turn on the much better than expected data, and the focus that the US is “relatively better”.  It might need a stronger stock market first, however.  A 10% decline from the top in the S&P comes in at 1817 area. The low yesterday came in at 1820.66.  The S&P in pre market is trading down -26 from the close at 1862.

If the price is to go down, I will need to see the price head back below the 1.2746 level.  From there the 100 hour MA should be tested again.  Looking at the 5 minute chart, the pair just tested the midpoint of the days trading range (at 1.27738).  This might be a level to lean against in trading this morning.  I would not want to see a move above the high from last week at 1.2791 no matter what today.  It would suggest something else is up (like stocks getting creamed and shorts covering).


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Stalls Above 1.28 (based on dailyfx article)

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.2750, 1.2619, 1.2500
  • Resistance:1.2852, 1.3070, 1.3246

The Euro recovered against US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracementat 1.2852 exposes the 38.2% level at 1.3070. Alternatively, a turn back below the October 13 close at 1.2750 opens the door for a test of the October 1 close at 1.2619.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)

  • Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow After Holding at 2.1% for Last Two-Months.
  • Core Inflation to Retain the Fastest Pace of Growth Since April 2012.

A slowdown in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a further advance in USD/CAD as it gives the Bank of Canada (BoC) greater scope to retain its current policy throughout the remainder of 2014.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

However, the stickiness in core inflation may heighten the appeal of the loonie as it puts increased pressure on central bank Governor Stephen Poloz to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the USD/CAD may face a larger pullback ahead of the October 22 policy meeting should the report boost interest rate expectations.

Easing input costs along with the slowdown in private consumption may generate a marked slowdown in price growth, and a dismal CPI print may generate fresh monthly highs in USD/CAD as market participants scale back bets for higher borrowing costs.

However, higher wage growth paired with expectations for a faster recovery may boost price pressures in Canada, and a strong inflation reading should spur a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as it raises the BoC’s scope to further normalize monetary policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Slows in September

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a dismal CPI report to consider long USD/CAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a bearish Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish CAD Trade: Consumer Price Report Tops Market Expectations
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short USD/CAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish loonie trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

USD/CAD Daily Chart


  • Bearish RSI break may undermine inverse head-and-shoulders pattern; will stay constructive as long as USD/CAD holds above the August low (1.0809).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.1400 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 1.0830 (61.8% retracement) to 1.0850 (38.2% retracement)
Impact that the Canada CPI report has had on CAD during the last month
PeriodData ReleasedSurveyActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
AUG
2014
09/19/2014 12:30 GMT 2.1% 2.1% -58 -20

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at an annualized rate of 2.1% in August, while the core CPI unexpectedly increased to 2.1% from 1.7% in July, marking the highest reading since May 2012. Though the rise in core inflation may put increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise the benchmark interest rate, it seems as though the central bank will retain its neutral tone for some time as the fundamental outlook remains clouded by the weakness in global growth. The better-than-expected core inflation print propped up the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD dipping below 1.0900 following the release, but the loonie struggled to hold the gains during the North America trade as it closed at 1.0957.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  
2014-10-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

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U.S. Housing Starts Rebound More Than Expected In September

New residential construction in the U.S. increased by more than anticipated in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday, although the rebound did not completely offset the sharp drop seen in the previous month.

The Commerce Department said housing starts climbed 6.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.017 million in September after tumbling 12.8 percent to a rate of 957,000 in August. Economists had expected housing starts to rise to a rate of 1.008 million.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, also rose 1.5 percent to a rate of 1.018 million in September from the revised August rate of 1.003 million.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.01 06:59

Just something about ECN and STP - The Truth about Currenex Brokers :

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What is an ECN?

ECN is a term often used when referring to Currenex. ECN stands for Electronic Communication Network and it eliminates the function of a third party in the execution of orders. Without the intercession of a third party, market participants of any size can interact directly for Bid and Offer prices posted by other market participants. This leads to greater transparency and narrower spreads. ARCHIPELAGO, purchased by the NYSE in 2006, and ISLAND are two well known ECNs.

What is an ESP?

ESP™ means Executable Streaming Prices and is offered through the Currenex system. Currenex connects to multiple sources of liquidity, primarily banks, who offer "pools of liquidity". This expansiveness from the multiple pools of liquidity, available through Currenex’s ESP, provides better price discovery and narrower spreads for traders.

The prices that are offered via Currenex are executed directly within these various pools of liquidity. Whereas in the past, a trader would be required to obtain a Prime Brokerage relationship with one or more of the major liquidity providers which required a very high threshold and associated high expenses.

Not all Currenex Brokers are the same.

It is important to remember that a broker’s Currenex offering is only as good as the liquidity sources that are linked to the platform. The quantity and quality of liquidity sources can lead to dramatic differences in price spreads. For instance, a broker offering 1-2 banks versus a broker offering 8-10 banks will have a dramatic difference in pricing and liquidity.

What is STP?

STP, or Straight Through Processing, is a term commonly used among Forex brokers.Many Forex brokers state they use "interbank pricing" but act as a counter party to their customers’ trades. They take the other side of the trade, going against the client’s best interest, and make money on a client’s losing trade.

Conversely, a true STP setup passes the order in an automated way to all liquidity sources. With a true STP broker, there is not the possibility of any adversarial relationship between the broker and client as the broker only generates revenue in the form of a commission per trade rather than the dealing desk model of capturing client losses.