Press review - page 476

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: correction to the possible bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on breakdown for 112.59 support level to be testing for the breakdown to be continuing.

• "USD/JPY can often act as a helpful proxy as to how the market as a whole is viewing risk. Typically in market sentiment, if USD/JPY is higher, there is a relative sense of calm in markets as JPY is often sold in risk-seeking times. The move higher in USD/JPY after the November 8 election went in line with the aggressive move higher in equities alongside the aggressive sell-off in bonds that helped investors and analysts get a refresher on duration & convexity in fixed income markets."
• "The recent fall in USD/JPY of ~5% has begun to cause traders to question the post-election rally. Unfortunately, there are strong narratives in markets, but no certainties. One of the key narratives is that the new Trump Presidential administration that comes into office this Friday has been riding a fiscal wave to project likely inflation and dollar repatriation that has been perceived to be a net-positive for USD and inflation expectations that have driven USD/JPY higher."
• "However, as the narrative begins to come into question, though many of us at DailyFX believes the Strong-Dollar/ Inflation story resumes later this year, USD/JPY has broken down. From a technical perspective, there is a clear zone of support to watch below the current price of ~113 that is comprised of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud as well as the Fibonacci Zone that we’ve long been watching." 

If the price breaks support level at 110.26 on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement to the primary daily market condition will be started. 
If not so we may see the ranging condition within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment and 18 pips range price movement

2017-01-17 23:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]

• past data is -3.9%
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

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From official report:

Following December’s 3.9% decline, Sentiment was little changed in January, rising just 0.1%. At 97.4, pessimists clearly outnumbered optimists for a second consecutive month in January (100 being the neutral point). 

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AUD/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Ahead of BOC Rate Decision: daily bearish reversal; intra-day ranging bearish  (based on the article)

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels for the reversal to the primary bearish trend. The price is testing support level at 1.3017 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

• "The USD/CAD has pressed to new 2017 lows at 1.3018, but the pair is now rebounding from this morning’s decline. Today’s decline has come ahead of Bank of Canada rate decision, where rates are expected to remain at 0.50%. While rates are expected to be unchanged, traders will look towards future policy cues from Governor Stephen Ploz that may directly affect the USD/CAD." 
• "Technically the USD/CAD has turned bearish with the pair breaking below its daily 200 period moving average (MVA). This average resides at 1.3102, and if prices close beneath this value it will be the first time for the currency pair to do so in three months. While today’s price action qualifies as a daily breakout, traders will next look for the pair to close under the January 12th low at 1.3028. A move beyond this point exposes the next point of daily support near the psychological 1.30000 value. Alternatively if prices rebound near present values, bullish USD/CAD signals may begin again once the pair has risen back above the previously mentioned average." 

H4 intra-day price is below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is started for the ranging within 61.8% Fibo level at 1.3188 and Fibo level at 1.3017.

If the price breaks 1.3188 resistance level to above so the rally will be started.
If the price breaks 1.3293 resistance level to above so we may see the the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movcement.
If the price breaks 1.3017 support level to below so the intra-day bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels. 

• "Intraday, the USD/CAD is trading well below today’s S4 pivot at 1.3128. While this bearish breakout occurred earlier in the session, traders may continue to use this point as an intraday point of resistance to time retracement entries. Traders looking for a bullish USD/CAD reversal should also continue to monitor today’s S4 pivot. If prices move back above this point, the next key value for the USD/CAD falls at 1.3150. A move here would suggest an invalidation of this morning’s breakout, and suggest at least a temporary change in the short term trend."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and CAC 40: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2017-01-18 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

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GBP/USD M5: 24 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

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CAC 40 Index, M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

US president inauguration

Christian Schuller, 2017.01.18 19:39

Hi,

do you think the us president's inauguration will have impact on prices and volatility before and on Friday?

Or do you think it is already reflected in the prices?

Regards.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 20 pips range price movement

2017-01-19 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 37.1K
• forecast data is 10.2K
• actual data is 13.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

• Employment increased 13,500 to 11,985,900. Full-time employment increased 9,300 to 8,176,500 and part-time employment increased 4,200 to 3,809,500.
• Unemployment increased 14,700 to 741,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 15,000 to 528,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 300 to 212,200.
• Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.
• Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 64.7%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.9 million hours to 1,670.4 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold Technicals: intra-day bullish channel to be broken for correction (based on the article)

H4 XAU/USD price broke bullish channel to below for the secondary correction to be started with 1,182 target.

• "Traders looking to execute bullish strategies can look to catch support off of prior resistance around the zone comprising $1,200-$1,204.76. Both of these prices are relevant Fibonacci levels and this zone had offered resistance when prices were on the way-up, so this can be a very opportune zone to look for that next zone of ‘higher low’ support."
• "Given the veracity of the move-higher, bears will likely want to wait for a break of swing support levels at $1,187.50 or $1,177 before entertaining down-side approaches."
  

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates and 19 pips range price movement

2017-01-19 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report:

• At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, USD/CNH and Dax Index: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-01-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is 21.5
• forecast data is 16.3
• actual data is 23.6 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report:

"The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a revised reading of 19.7 in December to 23.6 this month.* Forty percent of the firms reported increases in activity this month; 17 percent reported decreases. The general activity index has remained positive for six consecutive months, and the activity index reading was the highest since November 2014 (see Chart 1). The other broad indicators suggest sustaining growth. The index for current new orders increased 11 points this month, with 41 percent of the firms reporting increases. The shipments index remained at a high reading but fell 1 point. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the third consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders."

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NZD/USD M5: 32 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

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Dax Index, M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

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USD/CNH M5: 116 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks and 39 pips range price movement

2017-01-20 01:00 GMT | [EUR - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[EUR - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = The Speech titled "The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy" at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, in San Francisco.

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From dailymail article:

• "Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday said it is "reasonable" for Congress to ask questions about Fed policy and why certain decisions deviate from recommendations from well-known monetary policy rules."
• "But in response to a question from Stanford professor John Taylor, Yellen reiterated her opposition to a proposed law that would require the Fed to stick to Taylor's well-known policy rule and to submit to an audit should it deviate. Such a law, she said, opens the Fed to short-term political pressures."
  

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EUR/USD M5: 39 pips range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event