Press review - page 464

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Within such context, Fed’s rate hike and multiple rumors on domestic bond defaults triggered panic selling in China’s bond market on December 15th: Chinese 5-year and 10-year government bond futures plunged and then halted in trading; the government bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, hit a 15-month high. In order to ease the tension, the Central Bank added a net of 45 billion Yuan through reverse repos and 394 billion Yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on December 16th; yet, SHIBOR in all terms were still rising on the day. Also, market demand in the Yuan will normally increase as it approach to the end of a year; Yuan’s supply through another source, in exchange of foreign currencies, showed continued declines. Taking into account all these factors, the PBOC may prioritize increasing Yuan injections in the onshore market next week rather than guiding the pace of onshore exchange rates, which leaves more room for the onshore Yuan to move in response to market pressures."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Given the relative preponderance of US data in the coming week, including another look at third quarter growth, it seems likely that the US Dollar will remain very much the currency in play. That could then mean that the Aussie heads yet lower, assuming the US numbers hold up, even if it doesn’t fall to anything like the extent it did in the past week."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "Crude Oil is playing a large role in what could be the resumption of the Canadian Economy. As economic data is stabilizing (disappointing less often), the Bank of Canada is turning more neutral as opposed to dovish, and the Crude market looks poised for a stability above $50/bbl. All of this combined with the Fiscal efforts by PM Trudeau may allow the Canada to benefit greatly from the recent OPEC accord to limit crude production to support the market’s supply balance. While risks remain given the uncertainty of future U.S. trade policy, the Canadian Dollar may shine as the beneficiary of a natural trade partner with the U.S. and a turning of the tide in energy markets that continues to play out."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Although the rate-hike was widely anticipated, slight upward revisions to the Fed’s growth & inflation forecasts were overshadowed by and uptick in the committee’s interest rate dot plot with officials now calling for 3 hikes next year. The release prompted a repricing off expectations, fueling a massive rally in the U.S. dollar as lower yielding ‘haven’ assets like gold came under pressure. That said, the first hike isn’t expected until the second half of the year and the recent rally in the greenback may be a bit overdone here. (Keep in mind we came into 2016 expecting three hikes and got just one). Although the implications for higher rates are likely to weigh on yellow metal, prices are responding to a key technical threshold which may offer a near-term reprieve to the most recent bout of selling."

[Sergey Golubev]

How McDonald's Wins (based on the article)

"Over the past five decades, McDonald's has managed to fend off many challenges, always rising after a brief pause.What's behind McDonald's endurance to the test of time?" :

• "First comes franchise, a business model that allows its franchisee-members, management and shareholders to share the risks and rewards from the discovery and exploitation of new business opportunities - McDonald’s model has become the norm for other franchise organizations."
• "Second comes location. As a first mover in the restaurant franchise space, McDonald's has acquired and developed prime real estate location, which it leases to its franchisees."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and 30 pips price movement

2016-12-18 00:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

• past data is 20.5
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 21.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From RTT News article:

• "Business confidence in New Zealand picked up steam in December, the latest survey from NBNZ showed on Monday with an index score of 21.7."

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NZD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

As we are going to get German Ifo Business Climate news event at 9 am GMT today so those are the figures from the one of the previous release:

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 15:30

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 20 pips range price movement

2016-10-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 109.5
• forecast data is 109.6
• actual data is 110.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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From official report:

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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 23 pips range price movement

2016-12-19 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 110.4
• forecast data is 110.7
• actual data is 111.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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From official report:

"The German economy is in a festive mood. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose in December to 111.0 points from 110.4 points in November. Assessments of the current business situation improved, reaching their highest level since February 2012. The business outlook for the first half of 2017 is also slightly more optimistic. The German economy is making a strong finish to the year."

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EUR/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: in the absence of sellers (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is on secondary ranging within the following support/resistanbce levels:

• 2277 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and 
• 2213 support level located in the beginning of the correction to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the market condition as the ranging, and Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging trend as well by direction.

• "The S&P 500 took another step on Friday towards consolidating the recent leg higher dating back to the 12/2 low. Our focus remains from the long-side with a little more backing-and-filling into support. The market may run into a confluence of support here shortly. We have our eyes on the intersection between the trendline running up off the November low and top-side trend-line extending back to the February double-bottom low. Intersection arrives at around 2245. However, if we see further sideways price action confluence may not be met given the angle of the November trend-line." 
• "In the absence of sellers, the market is correcting more in terms of time rather than price. A push higher will initially put the S&P up against resistance at the 12/13 record highs of 2277.5. On a breakout to new highs, with nothing to the left, we could see the market trading to the whole figure of 2300 in the not-too-distant future."

If the price breaks 2277 resistance to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed, otherwise - ranging.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 19 pips range price movement

2016-12-20 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report:

"There was still considerable uncertainty about the momentum in the labour market. The unemployment rate had declined over the past year, as had measures of excess capacity that accounted for the number of additional desired hours of work. Part-time employment had grown strongly over the previous year, but employment growth overall had slowed. Members noted that there was expected to be excess capacity in the labour market for some time, which was consistent with further indications of subdued labour cost pressures. This suggested that inflation would remain low for some time before returning to more normal levels."

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AUD/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event