Press review - page 444

[Sergey Golubev]

Sergey Golubev:

Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)

• "A material pickup in both the headline and core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may sap the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound and spark a larger recovery in GBP/USD especially as a growing number of Bank of England (BoE) officials see a greater threat of overshooting the 2% target for inflation."
• "Even though the BoE argues ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound,’ heightening price pressures may keep the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the sidelines throughout the remainder of the yearas Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe warns the next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp decline in the exchange rate. In turn, GBP/USD may face a more meaningful correction as the BoE looks poised to endorse a wait-and-see approach ahead of 2017, but the broader outlook for the sterling remains tilted to the downside as the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’ clouds the outlook for growth and inflation."

Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core CPI Pick Up in September

• "Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors long sterling, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Inflation Report Falls Short of Market Forecast

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse."

Daily price is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.

• If D1 price breaks 1.2478 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price breaks 1.1940 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: 47 pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 32 pips range price movement

2016-10-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Price Index]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Consumer Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment."
• "Increases in the shelter and gasoline indexes were the main causes of the rise in the all items index. The gasoline index rose 5.8 percent in September and accounted for more than half of the all items increase. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent, its largest increase since May."

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EUR/USD M5: 32 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 36 pips range price movement

2016-10-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Price Index]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Consumer Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment."
• "Increases in the shelter and gasoline indexes were the main causes of the rise in the all items index. The gasoline index rose 5.8 percent in September and accounted for more than half of the all items increase. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent, its largest increase since May."

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USD/JPY M5: 36 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Real GDP and 77 pips range price movement

2016-10-19 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

• past data is 6.7%
• forecast data is 6.7%
• actual data is 6.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From reuters article: China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises

• Some economists believe Beijing has had to "double down" on stimulus this year to meet its official growth range of 6.5 to 7 percent, and say the government's obsession with meeting hard targets may hurt both planned reforms and the long-term health of the world's second-largest economy. "So far this year they have clearly chosen to do everything they can to meet the growth targets, and now there is a little bit of an upward surprise from the housing market which actually will help them with GDP growth this year," said Louis Kuijs, head Of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
• "The question really is, is the leadership willing to move to somewhat lower growth targets in order to put growth on a more sustainable footing, or will it feel obliged to continue to hang on to those very high growth targets."

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USD/CNH M5: 77 pips range price movement by China Real GDP news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 29 pips price movement

2016-10-19 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

• past data is 7.1K
• forecast data is 3.4K
• actual data is 0.7K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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From The Telegraph article: FTSE 100 falters and pound rises above $1.23 as UK unemployment rate holds steady at 4.9pc despite Brexit vote

• "The three-month average level of employment rose by a solid 106K, or 0.3pc, between May and August, but 66K of these new positions are part-time roles. Total hours worked held steady between May and August, indicating employees’ demand for labour has stagnated. Meanwhile, employment growth no longer is keeping pace with the expanding size of the workforce; the three-month average level of unemployment edged up by 10K between May and August."
• "This increase was not large enough to push the unemployment rate up from 4.9pc, but the steady upward trend in the claimant count, which rose 0.7K month-to-month in September after an upward-revised increase of 7.1K in August, suggests the main rate will edge up over the coming months. In addition, the stagnation of the number of job vacancies and the deterioration in surveys of employment intentions point to slower employment growth ahead."

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GBP/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)

• "The Canadian dollar may show a limited reaction to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) October interest rate decision as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. are expected to retain the current policy, but the near-term decline in USD/CAD may largely unravel should the monetary policy report fuel bets for more easing."
• "The BoC may show a greater willingness to implement lower borrowing-costs as the ‘risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July,’ and a reduction in the central bank’s economic projections may drag on the local currency as market participants boosts bets for additional monetary support. However, Governor Poloz and Co. may continue to advocate a wait-and-see approach as the central bank anticipates a ‘substantial rebound’ in the second-half of 2016, and the fresh comments may boost the appeal of the Canadian dollar should the committee sound upbeat this time around."

Bullish CAD Trade: BoC Advocates Wait-and-See Approach

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Inflation Report Falls Short of Market Forecast

• "Need to see red, five-minute candle following the decision to consider a short trade on USD/CAD."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in revers."

Daily price is located between 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the ranging market condition within the narrow support/resistance levels.

• If D1 price breaks 1.3312 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the recversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to tthe primary bullish market ccondition will be started.
  
• If price breaks 1.3054 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC vernight Rate and 46 pips range price movement

2016-10-19 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From official report:

• "The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."
• "The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected."
• "Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, the new housing measures should mitigate risks to the financial system over time. At present, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks is still in the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent."

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USD/CAD M5: 46 pips range price movement by BoC vernight Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.19 17:54

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish; daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels

2016-10-19 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 4.9M
• forecast data is 2.2M
• actual data is -5.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish. The price is on bullish market condition to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA for 53.10 resistance level to be etsting for the bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 53.10 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 52.22 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within s/r levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.

If the price breaks 53.71 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 49.39 support level to below on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and 65 pips range price movement

2016-10-20 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is -8.6K
• forecast data is 15.0K
• actual data is -9.8K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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• Employment decreased 9,800 to 11,947,200. Full-time employment decreased 53,000 to 8,105,300 and part-time employment increased 43,200 to 3,841,900.
• Unemployment decreased 12,500 to 705,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 7,400 to 492,300 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 5,100 to 212,800.
• Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.6%.
• Participation rate decreased 0.2 pts to 64.5%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 4.0 million hours to 1,660.0 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 65 pips range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate (adapted from the article)

• "Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to retain its current policy in October, the EUR/USD may face a sharp move should President Mario Draghi & Co. take additional steps to further support the monetary union."
• "After cutting the growth forecast in September, the Governing Council may push out the deadline for its quantitative easing (QE) program and adjust the guidelines of its non-standard measures in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. However, more of the same from the ECB may trigger a bullish reaction in the single-currency should the central bank stick to the March 2017 deadline for its asset-purchases."

Bearish EUR Trade: Governing Council Extends/Adjusts QE Program

• "Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."

Bullish EUR Trade: ECB Preserves Current Policy, Endorses Wait-and-See Approach

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
• "Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction."

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.0969 support level together withdescending triangle pattern to below for 1.0954 nearest bearish target to re-enter.

• If D1 price breaks 1.1058 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price breaks 1.0969 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0954 re-enter target.
  
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

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EUR/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news events