Press review - page 425

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Jobless Claims and 6 pips range price movement

2016-08-11 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 267K
• forecast data is 265K
• actual data is 266K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From the MarketWatch article:

• "The number of people filing for unemployment benefits declined 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 in the August 6 week, the Labor Department said Thursday."
• "Initial claims have been below the key 300,000 threshold for 75 weeks in a row, the longest such streak since 1970."
• "Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast claims would total 265,000."
• "The 4-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose 3,000 to 262,750."
• "Continuing claims rose by 14,000 and totaled 2.16 million in the most recent week."

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EUR/USD M5: 6 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news event

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and 31 pips range price movement

2016-08-11 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is 2.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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• "The total volume of retail sales rose 2.3 percent." 
• "The total value of retail sales rose 2.2 percent."
• "Both total volumes and values recorded their largest dollar-value increases in the series." 
• "Twelve of the 15 industries had higher sales in both volumes and values."
• "The hardware, building, and garden supplies industry had the largest volume and value sales increases."

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NZD/USD M5: 31 pips range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Chinese Industrial Production and 61 pips price movement

2016-08-12 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

• past data is 6.2%
• forecast data is 6.2%
• actual data is 6.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

From RTTNews:

• "China's economic activity weakened in July as industrial production, retail sales and investment all registered weak growth."
• "Industrial production grew 6 percent year-on-year in July, slower than the 6.2 percent increase seen in June. The annual growth was expected to remain unchanged at 6.2 percent."
  
• "Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics, said the downbeat investment figures raise questions over the efficacy of the recent policy easing."
• "Policymakers may have to do more to reverse the recent trend in investment growth, most likely in the form of more forceful fiscal policy during the remainder of this year, if they want to prevent a renewed slide in economic growth, the economist noted."

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USD/CNH M5: 61 pips price movement by Chinese Industrial Production news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2016-08-12 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From MarketWatch:

• "U.S. retail sales were little-changed in July, down from a gain of 0.8% in June, the Commerce Department reported. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected growth of 0.4% on the month, compared with an original estimate of 0.6% growth in June. Auto sales rose 1.1% in July, representing the strongest result since April. But excluding autos, retail-sales growth slumped 0.3% last month—the weakest reading since January, after a 0.9% gain in the prior month."
  
• "Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, estimated that "total-real consumption, including services, starting the third quarter up at about a 3% annual rate from the second-quarter average. The net result is still solid growth," O’Sullivan said."
• "Shepherdson said that the data fit with a 2.5% forecast for third quarter GDP, up from the 1.2% rate in the second quarter."

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EUR/USD M5: 56 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event

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GBP/USD M5: 69 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event

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AUD/USD M5: 46 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, August 14 - August 21 (based on the article)

Japan GDP data, inflation figures from the UK and the US, Employment data from the UK the US, New Zealand and Australia, US FOMC Meeting Minutes release and Manufacturing Index. These are the highlights on forex calendar.

1. Japan GDP data: Sun, 23:50. GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to be 0.2%.
2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK CPI forecast for July is expected to be 0.5%.
3. Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German investor moral is expected to reach 2.1 in July.
4. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of permits os expected to rise to 1.16 million-unit pace.
5. US CPI: Tuesday, 12:30. US inflation is expected to remain flat in July.
6. NZ Employment data: Tuesday, 22:45. New Zealand’s job market is expected a gain of 0.6% in the second quarter while the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline to 5.3%.
7. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number of unemployed is expected to grow by 5,200 this time.
8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
9. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. June’s FOMC focused on May’s poor employment report showing a small job gain of 38,000. This disappointing reading diminished any serious chance for a foreseeable rate hike. However, policymakers noted that future rate hikes will depend on improvements in the labor market as well as the Brexit vote consequences are handled. The members decided to wait for additional data before voting to raise rates.
10. Australia employment data: Thursday, 1:30. The labor market is expected to expand by 10,200 jobs and the unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8%.
11. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. August’s manufacturing index  is expected to reach 1.4 points.
12. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to be 269,000 this week.

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Barring a tangible change in rate forecast – for better or worse – the Dollar will be difficult to transition to clear trend against the backdrop of global indecision. The ‘Summer Doldrums’ are discouraging traders from participating and the Greenback is suffering both for its key liquidity appeal (safe haven) as well as its unique risk orientation via early rate hikes. While traders should monitor it for volatility, they should also be skeptical of trend for the currency."

USD/JPY - "Due to this opacity of this scenario and further given the fact that the short-side of the Yen would seemingly be waiting for clues or innuendo ahead of that next phase of stimulus-driven Yen weakness, we’re setting the forecast on the Japanese Yen to neutral for the week ahead."

AUD/USD - "Needless to say, the Australian Dollar is likely to suffer if this ultimately translates into rebuilding bets on further stimulus expansion in the near term. As it stands, markets envision at least one more 25bps cut over the next 12 months but the move is not expected until the second quarter of next year."

USD/CAD - "USD/CAD may threaten the upward trend from earlier this year as the pair carves a near-term series of lower highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to preserve the bullish formation from June. In turn, a break of the July low (1.2830) may foreshadow a shift in the broader trend, and the dollar-loonie may give back the advance from the May low (1.2460) as it breaks below near-term support around 1.2930 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2980 (23.6% retracement)."

NZD/USD - "Next week’s economic focus will be on the Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate that is expected at 5.3% on Tuesday. Given the migration boom in New Zealand, employment data has tended to outperform other economies. When looking at Economic Surprises over the past 3-months, the New Zealand Economy has been in line with expectations on average." 

USD/CNH - "The PBOC’s monetary policy is on a much different track. The efficiency of China’s monetary policy has dropped to a new low and therefore, further easing measures will probably not help very much in the economy other than to exacerbate price bubbles. The July monetary supply report shows that the gap between the growth in M1 and M2 has widened to a new all-time high: The growth in M1 increased to 25.4% from 24.1% in the prior month while the growth in M2 dropped to 10.2% from 11.0%. As we discussed last week, a widened gap means that the problem of lacking investment opportunities becomes even worse. Also, new Yuan loans in July dropped more than expected: The print came out to be 463.6 billion Yuan and was 1.01 trillion Yuan less than the same month last year. New Yuan loans issued to corporates surprisingly dropped in July on an annualized basis, which was rarely seen in the past. Moreover, private investment in fixed assets continued to shrink in July: The growth in private investment has dropped to 2.1% from 2.8% in the prior month and is far below the 11.3% level from a year ago. These all add proof to the weakened conditions in the investment environment of Mainland China." 

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "We’ll be looking for a break of the objective monthly opening range with a break lower targeting 1303 & a more significant support confluence at 1287 where the 50% retracement of the late May advance converges on a pair of median-lines – Both areas of interest for possible short-side exhaustion / long-entries. While the immediate risk is for a deeper pullback, ultimately we’re looking higher in gold with a breach above near-term downtrend resistance targeting 1380."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Gross Domestic Product and 16 pips range price movement

2016-08-14 23:50 GMT | [JPY - GDP]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From the RTTNews article:

• "Japan's gross domestic product was flat on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2016, the Cabinet Office said on Monday."
• "That missed expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent following the 0.5 percent increase in the first quarter."
• "On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 0.2 percent - also beneath forecasts for 0.7 percent and sharply lower than 1.9 percent in the three months prior."
• "Nominal GDP advanced 0.2 percent on quarter - in line with expectations and down from 0.6 percent in the previous three months."
• "The GDP deflator was up 0.8 percent on year, exceeding estimates for 0.7 percent although down from 0.9 percent in the first quarter."

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USD/JPY M5: 16 pips range price movement by Japan Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis: Ahead of RBA Minutes (based on the article)

H4 price is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within 0.7724 resistance level and 0.7635 support level:

• "The AUD/USD has found support below the 0.7650 level (at the time of writing) after the pair formed a bearish daily technical pattern implying that a possible top might be forming."
• "Looking ahead, RBA meeting minutes and low levels of volatility are the major market themes for the pair in the short term, potentially highlighting the relatively attractive Aussie yield."
• "The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) August Meeting Minutes take center stage for the pair to start the trading week. In their latest rate decision, the RBA opted to cut the cash rate to 1.50% from the prior 1.75%, in order to assist inflation returning to target."
  

If H4 price breaks 0.7635 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If H4 price breaks 0.7724 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7755 level as a nearest bullish target.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 0.7724 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 0.7635 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: ranging
  

Resistance	Support
0.7724	0.7635
0.7755	0.7596

SUMMARY : ranging bullish

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 27 pips range price movement

2016-08-16 01:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - RBA Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From RTTNews article:

"Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board said that additional stimulus likely would aid the prospects for the country's economic, minutes from the central bank's August 2 revealed on Tuesday. Inflation was below the target range and was expected to remain there for the foreseeable future, giving the bank the means to cut rates. Inflation was just 1 percent in the June quarter, well below the RBA's target band of 2-3 percent. "Underlying inflation was expected to remain low for a time before picking up gradually as spare capacity in labor and many product markets diminished," the minutes said. In particular, it was weakness in the housing market that convinced the board to take action. At the meeting, the board trimmed its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, to a fresh record low 1.50 percent from 1.75 percent following two months of no action."

"The bank last reduced its rate by 25 basis points in May, which was the first reduction in a year. The RBA noted the possibility that it may not be the only bank to provide stimulus. "Monetary policy had continued to be highly accommodative in most economies and there was a reasonable likelihood of further stimulus by a number of the major central banks," the minutes said."

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AUD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD Price Action Analysis - Intra-day ranging near 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for direction (based on the article)

H4 price is broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to be reversed to the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is breaking 61.8% Fibo level at 1348.03 for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1357.16 Fibo target to re-enter.

• "Gold prices have been consolidating in sideways fashion for the past month. With limited new information from the Fed regarding the status of the next rate hike, gold prices have found a comfortable range to trade in."
• "Technically speaking, this range could be taking the shape of a triangle. This pattern suggests we’ll look for lower levels to buy into. It is not uncommon for prices to briefly penetrate the triangle’s trend lines. Therefore, the risk can be set off the July 21 low near $1311."

If the price breaks Fibo support level at 1333.12 so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1357.16 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Trend:

H4 - ranging