Press review - page 424

[Sergey Golubev]

Most likely scenario for S&P 500 H4 intra-day price (based on the article)

S&P 500 H4 intra-day price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish breakout which was started in the beginning of this month for example: price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal.

• "The S&P 500 opened at a record high on Monday as oil prices rose and after Friday's stellar jobs report suggested strength in the U.S. economy, boosting appetite for risk."

• "Oil rose 1.8 percent after a report in the Wall Street Journal last week that some OPEC members had called for a freeze in production."

• "Seven of the 10 major S&P 500 indexes were higher, led by a 0.96 percent rise in the energy sector."

• "Oil majors Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N) rose about 0.6 percent and were the top drivers of the S&P."

The price was bounced from 2,182.50 resistance level to below for the ranging to be started within key narrow support/resistance levels:

• 2,182.50 resistance level located far about Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 2,174.75 support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

Bearish reversal level at this timeframe is 2,160.25, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.

Most likely scenario for S&P 500 H4 intra-day price: 2,174.75 level will be broken to below and the correction will be started; if not so the price will be on bullish condition ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: National Australia Bank Business Confidence and 25 pips range price movement

2016-08-09 01:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

• past data is 5
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.

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"Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business. Despite the cacophony of events – including Brexit and the recent Federal election – that have posed a risk to market sentiment in the past month or so, firms are continuing to report positive levels of business confidence (albeit a little below average levels). The business confidence index eased slightly to +4 index points in July (from +5), which is modestly below the average of +6. The resilience of business confidence appears to stem largely from the fact that firms are still experiencing very elevated levels of business conditions – noting that the Survey was also conducted prior to the RBA recent decision to cut the cash rate 25bps."

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AUD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by National Australia Bank Business Confidence news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Pivot Points Analysis - weekly ranging within yearly Central Pivot waiting for direction (adapted from the article)

W1 price is testing Central Pivot at 0.7497 to above for the second time to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The nearest resistance levels are 0.7675/0.7834, and if the price breaks those levels to above so the price will finally be reversed to the primary bullish market condition, alternative - the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

• "The Australian Dollar is testing familiar resistance above the 0.76 threshold against its US counterpart after prices found support above the 0.74 figure. The pair has been capped here since late June, with a sustained upward push this time around threatening April’s swing top."
• "A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7649 clears the way for a challenge of the 61.8% level at 0.7768, a barrier reinforced by the April 21 high at 0.7835. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 0.7530 opens the door for a retest of the July 27 low at 0.7421."
• "Entering short seems premature despite the presence of significant resistance absent a tangible bearish reversal signal. On the other hand, taking up the long side is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent until something more compelling emerges."

Instrument	S1 Pivot	Yearly PP	R1 Pivot
AUD/USD	0.6700	0.7497	0.8086

Trend:

• W1 - ranging for direction
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Staying USD Bearish - Morgan Stanley (based on the article)

• "As long as US inflation expectations remain low, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates early."
• "Hence, the Fed is likely to stay behind the curve, suggesting US real yields coming down again. However, it is not only the Fed which makes us USD-bearish."

Dollar Index: ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA for direction. The price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging condition waiting for direction.

• if the price breaks 96.52 resistance on close daily bar so the bullish reversal will be started;
• if the price breaks 95.03 support level so the primary bearish trend will be resumed;
  
• if not so the price will be moved within 100 SMA/200 SMA channel.

Resistance	Support
96.52	95.03
96.81	N/A

EUR/USD: daily ranging for direction. The price is on ranging near 200 SMA waiting for the direction of the trend.

• if the price breaks 1.1226 resistance on close daily bar so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition;
• if the price breaks 1.1045 support level so the primary bearish trend will be resumed;
  
• if not so the price will be on ranging for direction.

Resistance	Support
1.1226	1.1045
N/A	N/A

NZD/USD: unreasonable ranging. The pair is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal on the bullish area of the chart. price is on ranging within key support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.

• if the price breaks 0.7255 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 0.7323 daily target to re-enter;
• if the price breaks 0.7060 support level so the secondary correction within the rpimary bullish trend will be started;
  
• if not so the price will be mon bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
0.7255	0.7060
0.7323	N/A

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick Intra-Day Overview - S&P 500: bullish ranging within narrow levels for direction (adapted from the article)

H4 price is located babove Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price is on ranging within the narrow s/r levels waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or to the secondary correction to be started.

• "The S&P 500 pulled back from a top-side trend-line running off the 7/14 peak, and is currently trying to make its way back higher off the 2174/78 support zone. Can the breakout following Friday’s big NFP print hold, or will it fold, leading to a false breakout? It certainly could and it would be consistent with how markets often act coming out of tight ranges like the one we saw to end July into August. A drop back below 2174 confirms a false breakout and a decline back towards the low-end of the range becomes the risk. Should support hold, then so does the market’s current upward bias."
• If H4 price breaks 2172.75 support level on close bar so the correction will be started.
• If H4 price breaks 2183.25 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
2183.25	2172.75
N/A	2159.38

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Gov Stevens Speaks and 10 pips range price movement

2016-08-10 03:05 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = The speech at the Anika Foundation Luncheon in Sydney.

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"To conclude, over the past decade and in a very volatile world, Australia has achieved the inflation target, avoided a major economic downturn, seen remarkably little variability in real economic activity in the face of enormous shocks, experienced a fairly low average rate of unemployment, and had a stable financial system as well"

"Looking ahead, challenges remain for Australia, not least sustaining a stronger growth outlook over the longer term. More than adjustments to interest rates will be needed to secure that."

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AUD/USD M5: 10 pips range price movement by Reserve Bank of Australia Gov Stevens Speaks news event

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily ranging for direction

2016-08-10 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 1.4M
• forecast data is -1.3M
• actual data is 1.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: intra-day breakdown with the bearish reversal. The price is breaking 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish reversal.

If the price breaks 45.08 resistance level on close M5 to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 44.45 support on close M5 bar so the intra-day bearish breakdown will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for direction. The price is on bullish ranging condition located to be above 200 SMA and below 100 SMA on the ranging for direction.

If the price breaks 47.16 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 41.49 support level on close daily bar to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 155 pips range price movement

2016-08-10 21:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 2.25%
• forecast data is 2.00%
• actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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"The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.0 percent."

"Global growth is below trend despite being supported by unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus.  Significant surplus capacity remains across many economies and, along with low commodity prices, is suppressing global inflation.  Some central banks have eased policy further since the June Monetary Policy Statement, and long-term interest rates are at record lows.  The prospects for global growth and commodity prices remain uncertain.  Political risks are also heightened."

"Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand are placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate.  The trade-weighted exchange rate is significantly higher than assumed in the June Statement. The high exchange rate is adding further pressure to the export and import-competing sectors and, together with low global inflation, is causing negative inflation in the tradables sector.  This makes it difficult for the Bank to meet its inflation objective.  A decline in the exchange rate is needed."

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NZD/USD M5: 155 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area: the price is on bullish market condition for the secondary ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 1.1191 resistance level located above 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bullish trend to be continuing, and
• 1.1135 support level located in the beginning fo the secondary correction to be started.

The bearish reversal level is 1.1058 support, and if the price breaks this level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the ranging condition with the trading within the channel of s/r levels:

"While shorter-term momentum has improved considerably, it is not enough to suggest that the current neutral outlook for EUR has shifted to bullish. However, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside and the current EUR strength could extend higher within these few days to test the top end of our expected sideway trading range at 1.1250. Overall, only a move back below 1.1100 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased."

• If daily price breaks 1.1233 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1059 support level on close bar so the primary bearish reversal will be started.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 102.82 resistance level located near and below 100 SMA/100 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
• 100.63 support level located far below 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bearish area of the chart.

Symmetric triangle pattern was fomed by the price to be crossed for the direction of the bearish trend to be continuing or the bullish reversal to be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for USD/JPY to be continuing with the ranging condition:

"The outlook for USD is viewed as neutral and we expect this pair to trade within a broad 100.50/102.80 range for now."

• If daily price breaks 111.44 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 100.67 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 99.94 as a nearest bearish target to re-enter.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.