XAUUSD: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50
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The weak US employment report sharply reduced the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October: job growth in September amounted to 29 thousand, and data for previous months was revised downward. This weakens pressure from monetary policy and supports demand for gold.
At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remains above 5%, which limits the potential of XAUUSD. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting will be a test of the new scenario, but if expectations of a pause persist, the priority remains with the recovery of gold.
Trading idea: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50
#SP500: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835
For the US market, the key change was the reduction in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October after weak employment data. A softer trajectory of the cost of money supports stocks, and Friday's index rise shows that investors currently view slowing hiring more as an argument for a Fed pause.
The limitation remains Treasury bond yields at multi-year highs, increasing requirements for stock valuation. If the Fed minutes do not return the market to tighter expectations, the basic weekly scenario allows for continued growth of #SP500.
Trading idea: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835
#BRENT: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25
For Brent, the main local factor of the week is supply. OPEC+ maintained its production targets for November, and oil exports from the Middle East have recovered, while G7 countries began releasing part of their emergency reserves. This combination reduces deficit risks and creates downward pressure on prices.
Geopolitical tensions and attacks on infrastructure continue to maintain the risk premium, so declines may remain volatile. However, with high export flows and growing available supply remaining, the basic scenario for the week remains in favor of selling #BRENT.
Trading idea: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25
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