Fundamental Market Analysis for September 14, 2026 EURUSD

The euro begins the week after the ECB raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The regulator raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and indicated that inflation will remain above target longer than expected. This supports the euro, but the effect of the decision is already partially priced in by the market, while rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for the eurozone economy.

The American side of the pair received a fresher impulse following August's inflation data. Rising consumer prices strengthened expectations of an FOMC rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs. This gives the dollar an advantage ahead of the regulator's decision, especially given investors' cautious risk appetite.

As a result, support from the ECB for the euro currently does not outweigh the reassessment of the Fed's trajectory. Expensive energy further complicates growth prospects for the eurozone, while the expectation of a US rate hike remains a relevant driver for the current session. Against this backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1515

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