Event to watch today:
11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI Index
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index
EURUSD:
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The Euro approaches the new session with a noticeably weaker starting position. The fiscal situation in France and the risk of political gridlock continue to weigh on confidence in eurozone assets, while today's final business activity indices will only refine the assessment of growth rates. After a prolonged decline, part of the negative backdrop is already reflected in the price, so further movement requires sustained fresh pressure.
On the US side, the picture is mixed. A weak September employment report significantly reduced the likelihood of another Fed rate hike in October, but high Treasury yields and dollar demand amid stress in debt markets continue to support the US currency. For EUR/USD, this leaves the advantage with the dollar, although its strengthening potential has become less one-sided.
A significant portion of the daily decline has already been realized, so the remaining potential is assessed more cautiously. A reversal factor would be further declines in US yields or noticeably stronger eurozone data. Until that happens, French risks and the relative advantage of the dollar keep the priority on EUR/USD downside.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1180, SL 1.1215, TP 1.1095
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