Profit and Risk Analysis of Asmani Pro

4 April 2019, 07:31
Mangesh Chinchalkar
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3 881

Please read other blogs

1)    General Strategy of Asmani Pro

https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/725758

2)    Inputs explained in detail for Asmani Pro 21.0

https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/725759

3)    Backtesing for Asmani

https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/725755

4)    FAQ For Asmani

https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/725757

Profit and Risk Analysis of Asmani Pro :

Profit Analysis of Asmani Pro :

Let us make calculations considering lot size= 0.01 per trade.

(These calculations can be extrapolated to find actual profit for any lotsize)

1)   Inputs :

a.    0.01 lot size per trade. (i.e. lotmultiplier = 1)

b.    Maximum 5 Orders per one basket. (i.e  OrdersPerBasket = 5)

c.    ProfitPerBasket (PPB) set to $1.0 per 0.01 lot size

d.    Other all inputs as per default

2)   Assumptions based on back tests on 99.9% data

a.    Per day, average 2-3 baskets are closed with profit of $1.0 per each basket (if lot size of each trade in basket is 0.01)

3)   Result per day in USD :

a.    Every day $2-3 profit is booked by Asmani EA with above settings with 0.01 lots.

b.    In other words,

                                 i.    every day $10-15 profit is booked by Asmani EA with 0.05 lots. OR

                               ii.    every day $20-30 profit is booked by Asmani EA with 0.1 lots… and so on

4)   Result in % of capital:

a.    Case 1 (High Risk)  :  0.01 lot size applied with USD 100 capital

                                 i.    2-3$ Profit per day on 100 capital. i.e. 2-3% profit per day.

                               ii.    Hence 44-66% Profit per month

b.    Case 2 (Medium Risk)  :  0.01 lot size applied with USD 300 capital

                                 i.    2-3$ Profit per day on 300 capital. i.e. is 0.7-1% profit per day.

                               ii.    Hence 15-22% Profit per month

c.    Case 3 (Low Risk)  :  0.01 lot size applied with USD 500 capital

                                 i.    2-3$ Profit per day on 500 capital. i.e. is 0.4-0.6% profit per day.

                               ii.    Hence 9-13% Profit per month

Risk Analysis of Asmani Pro :

1)   Some Assumptions to consider (Based on 99.9% back tests for last 8-9 years):

a.    Asmani Pro closes a basket within maximum 3 open orders approx 85% of the times.

b.    Asmani Pro  opens 4 orders in a basket approx 12% of the times.

c.    Asmani Pro  opens 5 orders in a basket approx 3% of the times.

d.    The major DD / Risk starts only after opening 5 orders, when the market still goes on in wrong direction.

e.    For EURUSD, as an example, movement from 1.14250 to 1.14350 is considered as 10 pips movement.

f.     The average Pips Gap between 1st and 5th Trade of the basket is around 60 pips.

g.    Hence for 4 orders of 0.01 lots each, the DD has reached to 0.01 x 4 x $6 = $24, when 5th order opens.

h.    Actually it is less than $24, since only first order is in loss of 60 Pips, and further orders are in less loss. But, for worst case, lets consider it as $20 DD till 5th order is reached.

2)   Calculation of DD for 3 cases (considering 0.01 lot)

a.    Case 1 (High Risk)  :  0.01 lot size applied with USD 100 capital

                                         i.    Till 5 orders, DD reached by 4 orders = $20

                                       ii.    Hence After 5 orders are open, we still have $80 in equity.

                                     iii.    Hence with 5 orders of 0.01 lots open, market has to move 160 more Pips in wrong direction to blow down the account completely.

b.    Case 2 (Medium Risk)  :  0.01 lot size applied with USD 300 capital

                                         i.    Till 5 orders, DD reached by 4 orders = $20

                                       ii.    Hence After 5 orders are open, we still have $280 in equity.

                                     iii.    Hence with 5 orders of 0.01 lots open, market has to move 560 more Pips in wrong direction to blow down the account completely.

c.    Case 3 (Low Risk)  :  0.01 lot size applied with USD 500 capital

                                         i.    Till 5 orders, DD reached by 4 orders = $20

                                       ii.    Hence After 5 orders are open, we still have $480 in equity.

                                     iii.    Hence with 5 orders of 0.01 lots, market has to move 960 more Pips in wrong direction to blow down the account completely.

Conclusion :

There is no EA which is 100% safe. Here we are analyzing whether Asmani Pro can give around 20% profit per month, with calculated medium / low risk.

With the Case 2 (Medium Risk), i.e  0.01 lot size applied with USD 300 capital, we can see that it gives approx 15-20% profit per month.

Regarding risk,

1)    If the Basket is closed within 5 orders with given profit, few of the orders in Basket actually hit SL which is dynamically calculated. Also few of the orders hit the dynamic TP. Overall, the basket exits with required profit. Hence there is no need of individual SL for every order.

2)    The major risk starts only when 5 orders are opened (which itself is as less as 3% times in year)

a.    After 5 orders are open, the market has to move 560 Pips in wrong direction to blow down the account completely. The possibility of 560 Pips movement in just few hours of time, is also very rare.

3)    There is no need to put a Basket level SL as such. 

4)   Also, now in version Asmani Pro 19.0, there is an inbuilt feature (similar to FUSE) in Asmani 19.0, which locks the whole Basket’s DD by hedging equal lots in opposite side after basket reaches 8 orders. This feature will be used only when it’s a very high risk situation. In such case, fresh baskets start opening and trading continues, with the earlier basket locked with equal Buy and Sell orders.

5)    We can then anytime check the orders in the locked basket and based on our knowledge of market, we can exit the orders one by one in the basket manually.


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