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Thursday, May 17th
The EUR/USD pair lost its bullish tone in early Europe and returned to the region of 1.1800. In Asia, the pair was trading on a positive note in wake of ongoing correction of the US dollar, which allowed the pair to refresh its intraday highs on the level of 1.1837. However, the pair failed to extend its correction and returned to the area of 1.1800. Renewed weakness of the pair could be partially explained by uncertainty on the political field of Italy. As it was reported earlier, Italy's 5 Star movement and League parties are going to form a coalition. Both these parties have showed itself as nationalistic and anti-EU, so investors are considering negative consequences, which may cause the coalition. Looking ahead, today the EU calendar will offer investors only second-tier data reports, so investors will remain in anticipation of the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair is the top gainer of this trading session, having rallied for about 80 pips in Asia on the back of fresh Brexit developments. According to the latest news reports, hard-Brexit scenario could be avoided. Earlier today, it became known that the UK is about to inform the EU that it intends to remain in the customs union in an effort to avoid hard divorce. The pound positively reacted on this news, sending the pair to refresh its intraday highs on the level of 1.3569. However, there is still plenty of uncertainties related to Brexit, so the pound will remain in anticipation of fresh developments for further direction. On the other hand, today’s retreat of the US dollar also collaborated with pair’s positive tone, as US bulls continue to remain sluggish after notable rally of the greenback against its major rivals. On the data front, today the UK data calendar won’t bring us anything relevant, so investors will remain focused on the US data, scheduled for the NA session, while any news regarding Brexit will also have significant impact on the pair.
The AUD/USD pair is trading on a positive note this Thursday, extending its rebound from the region of its yearly lows, marked in near the level of 0.7400. Yesterday the pair met support on the level of 0.7447 on the back of slight retreat of the greenback against its major competitors after notable bullish rally. In addition to that, positive data from the Australian labor market offered some extra support to the pair during the Asian trading session, thus accelerating its recovery. Meanwhile, investors’ focus shifts towards the Philly Fed index, which will be published during the NA session, however, the US dollar correction will continue to influence the pair during today’s trades.
The USD/JPY pair ignores retreat of the US dollar, keeping its positions within striking distance of its 3.5-month highs, marked on the level of 110.45 earlier this week. It seems that tremendously increased divergence between the Fed and BoJ remains one of the key navigators for the pair lately. However, further gains of the pair also look limited in wake of increased demand for safety due to renewed tensions between the US and N. Korea. According to the latest news reports, Pyongyang stated that the summit between the leaders of the US and N. Korean won’t take place if the US continues to insist on unilateral denuclearization. In the day ahead, the US will offer investors only the Philly Fed manufacturing index, again leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend this Thursday.
Major events of the day:
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1717 R. 1.1899
USDJPY S. 109.90 R. 110.66
GBPUSD S. 1.3411 R. 1.3579
USDCHF S. 0.9969 R. 1.0041
AUDUSD S. 0.7420 R. 0.7570
NZDUSD S. 0.6821 R. 0.6955
USDCAD S. 1.2702 R. 1.2930
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