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Thursday, May 10th
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend, correcting higher from its multi-month lows, marked on the level of 1.1823 a day before. Today’s recovery of the pair is mostly attributed to a softer price dynamics of the US dollar, caused by increased cautiousness ahead of crucial US data. Many market participants believe that positive US inflation data will help the Fed to accelerate monetary policy tightening pace in the form of another rate hike this year. This outcome will expand the divergence between the Fed and ECB, which will increase pressure on the euro by its American rival. Meanwhile, today the EZ economic calendar won’t offer investors anything important, so all market’s attention will remain glued to the US CPI report. However, today traders will also pay attention to the BoE meeting, which will provide some correlation impetus to the pair during European trades.
The GBP/USD pair was trading without any changes so far this week, keeping its positions within the range of 1.34-1.35, as investors were refraining of opening important positions ahead of risky events. And now all markets’ attention remains glued to the one of the key events of this Thursday – the BoE interest rate decision. A month ago, market participants believed that the UK regulator would increase its interest rate on today’s meeting, but after a series of disappointing economic data and dovish rhetoric of the BoE Governor M. Carney the market changed its expectations on less hawkish. Now it is expected that the Bank will keep its interest rate unchanged, however, investors will eagerly await for comments from MPC members on a slowdown of the UK economy in the first quarter, which will likely have significant impact on the pair. But after the BoE decision, the focus will shift towards the US inflation report, which will also be able to produce notable volatility across the market.
The NZD/USD pair came under strong bearish pressure in early Asia and again refreshed its 5-month lows on the level of 0.6903 due to results of the RBNZ meeting. As it was widely predicted, the CB left its interest rate unchanged at 1.75% level. However, the statement of the Bank didn’t look optimistic, as inflation remains below the target level and the Bank sees its growth very gradual. In addition to that, during the subsequent press conference the head of the RBNZ A. Orr also showed quite dovish tone, saying that the Bank will continue to maintain the interest rate at 1.75% for a considerable amount of time, seeing it as the best way to push inflation towards the level of 2%. In general, the overall tone of the Bank remained dovish, indicating a low rate of inflation and the intention to keep its policy accommodative for a longer period. However, that was not the only important event for today, as the US has prepared the inflation report, which is due for released during NA session.
The USD/JPY pair was trading without significant changes during the Asian session, stuck in the region of 109.63-92 on the back of subdued dynamics of the US dollar. Seems that US bulls eased its pressure on the market this Thursday, allowing major currency pairs to consolidate its positions. Moreover, it seems that the market broadly ignored the latest comments of the BoJ Governor H. Kuroda, who once again reiterated that the regulator would continue to implement its hyper-easy monetary approach. But now all markets’ attention remains focused on the release of the US price consumer index, which will bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
Switzerland - Ascension Day
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Inflation Report – 14.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Interest Rate Decision – 14.00 (GMT +3)
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1782 R. 1.1932
USDJPY S. 108.68 R. 110.36
GBPUSD S. 1.3442 R. 1.3658
USDCHF S. 0.9984 R. 1.0088
AUDUSD S. 0.7388 R. 0.7508
NZDUSD S. 0.6927 R. 0.7025
USDCAD S. 1.2735 R. 1.3035
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