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Thursday, April 19th
The EUR/USD pair trades on a positive note this Thursday, having returned to the region of the 1.2400 after yesterday’s drawdown. On Wednesday, the pair received moderate bearish impetus after the EZ CPI data missed market expectations, which hints on a dovish outcome of the ECB monetary policy meeting, scheduled for the next week. However, the pair managed to bounce off its intraday lows and regain its bullish tone, as weaker sentiments around the US dollar continue to dominate on the market, thus offering some support to the pair. Today the European economic calendar won’t offer anything relevant, so investors will focus on the US macro data for any fresh impetus.
The GBP/USD pair is still suffering from dismal UK wages and CPI data, which both missed market expectation earlier this week, keeping its positions in the region of weekly lows, located below the level of 1.4200. Today the pair extends its retreat from post-Brexit highs, marked on the level of 1.4376 on Tuesday, on the back of slew of weak data from the UK economy, which put some doubts on a rate hike, expected on the next BoE meeting in May. Moreover, today we are going to witness another round of volatility, as the UK will publish retail sales data, which will be able to bring another impetus on the pound during European trades. However, despite negative UK data the pair was able to trade with mildly bullish bias in Asia, as returned demand for risky assets was lending support to higher-yielding pound. Besides the UK data, the US will publish today the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will also be able to take a part in forming further pair’s trajectory.
The USD/CAD corrects lower this Thursday from its 2-day highs, marked at 1.2659 spot after BoC meeting. The outcome of the meeting mostly met market expectations, as the regulator left the rate on its current level, while also noting about two rate hikes during the second half of the year, as the CB now expects inflation to be modestly higher in 2018. However, the Bank noted that some monetary accommodation would be needed in order to achieve inflation target level. Moreover, markets didn’t find any comments regarding NAFTA and US-tariffs, which made the outcome of the meeting not enough hawkish for Canadian bulls. On the other hand, ongoing northern rally of oil prices, which once again refreshed its 3-year highs, and subdued dynamics of the US dollar contribute to pair’s downside correction today. In the day ahead, investors will remain in anticipation of Philly Fed index and data from Canada’s labor market, which will bring some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
The NZD/USD pair struggles with direction this Thursday, failing to benefit from positive NZ data. Earlier this session the pair received notable bullish impetus following green NZ inflation numbers. However, it seems that bulls remained unimpressed by this event and the pair retreated to the region of 0.7300 on the back of minor attempts of the US dollar to regain its positions across the market. Nevertheless, the pair remains slightly bullish this Thursday due to ongoing rally of oil prices and improved investors’ interest to risky assets. Today the US data calendar will offer us only Philly manufacturing index, so the pair will continue to follow broad market sentiments for any direction.
Major events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2315 R. 1.2427
USDJPY S. 106.78 R. 107.60
GBPUSD S. 1.4087 R. 1.4371
USDCHF S. 0.9630 R. 0.9726
AUDUSD S. 0.7722 R. 0.7828
NZDUSD S. 0.7282 R. 0.7364
USDCAD S. 1.2493 R. 1.2725
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