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Monday, October 30th
The EUR/USD pair continues to correct from its multi-month lows, marked below the level of 1.16 last week, on the back of weaker positions of the US dollar. Seems that the common currency has finally recovered a smile after disappointing outcome of the ECB meeting, as investors are locking in profits after sharp drawdown of the pair. Recall, last week the ECB reduced asset purchase by half, but extended QE program until September 2018. However, the pair managed to recover some positions, broadly ignoring the latest developments from the political area of Spain, amid renewed weakness around the US dollar, backed by speculations regarding who will be the next head of the Fed – hawk or dove. Today both economic calendars will offer only secondary data releases, so broad market trend will remain the only determinant for the pair during this trading session, while upcoming important events, which will take place later this week, will be able to set up the tone for the pair.
The NZD/USD pair came under renewed selling pressure at the start of this week, navigating towards it 5-month lows, marked at 0.6819 level during the last trading session, on the back of fresh dovish comments from NZ officials. The market reacted negatively on the latest rhetoric of new NZ FinMin Grant Robertson, who stated that the RBNZ could potentially lower interest rates. On the other hand, renewed downside traction of the US dollar, backed by ongoing speculations on who will be the next Fed Chair, is limiting pair’s recent fall. On the data front, today the US data calendar won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, caused by recent dovish talks of NZ policymakers. Meanwhile now all traders’ attention is slowly shifting towards the key events of this week – the Fed meeting and NFP.
The GBP/USD pair continues to recover positions from its 3-week lows, marked at 1.3069 spot on Friday, as broad retreat of the US dollar dominates the market at the first working day of the week. Recent weakness of the greenback could be mainly explained by speculations about a new Fed Chair, as markets allow that a dove could become the next head of the US regulator. Moreover, the pound seems to have regained a smile across the board as market participants are pricing in potential hawkish BoE move, especially after upbeat UK economic indicators, seen last week. It is expected that the UK regulator will increase its interest rate by 25 bps this Thursday that would indicate narrowing divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoE. Today nothing important is scheduled in economic data calendar, while several important events, scheduled in the week ahead, will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.
Bitcoin continues to surprise markets, having forced the BTC/USD pair to refresh its all-times highs at 6323.60 spot during the weekend. Recent upsurge of the cryptocurrency is mainly attributed to the latest news that China is going to implement new regulations that will allow Chinese investors to resume trading cryptocurrencies in the near future. In general, the overall picture for Bitcoin looks quite optimistic, as interest around digital cash continues to gather pace, thus pushing the pair higher and higher. However, further upside rally may appear capped, as uncertainty around SegWit2X implementation consequences, which is scheduled on mid-November, is negatively influencing investors’ confidence in Bitcoin. By the moment of writing, the BTC/USD pair was trading at 6101.00 level, while its market capitalization was above the level of 100 billion USD, according the data available at coinmarketcap.com.
The main events of the day:
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1529 R. 1.1695
USDJPY S. 113.10 R. 114.72
GBPUSD S. 1.3024 R. 1.3208
USDCHF S. 0.9912 R. 1.0066
AUDUSD S. 0.7607 R. 0.7711
NZDUSD S. 0.6797 R. 0.6913
USDCAD S. 1.2726 R. 1.2956
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