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Wednesday, March 8th
The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish slide for the third session in a row, refreshing this week’s lows at 1.0551 spot, in wake of broadly higher the US dollar. However, any sharp movements are unlikely today, as cautious sentiments are gathering pace in wake of upcoming ECB Interest Rate Decision, that is due tomorrow. On the other hand, expectedly that the ECB will leave its rate unchanged, while probability of March Fed rate hike has increased up to 90%. Such divergence between Fed’s and ECB’s monetary policies is additionally weighing the pair. Moreover, recent opinion polls in France showed that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen continues to hold leading positions in presidential elections, thereby intensifying concerns around the EUR. Today traders’ attention will be focused on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, while USD price dynamics and developments surrounding French elections will continue to drive the pair this Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair continues to lose ground this Wednesday, with no chances for recovery. Today the pair once again came under bearish pressure in wake of Chinese Trade Balance data, that surprised the market with extremely weak data, thereby capping the pair from any further gains. Moreover, ongoing speculations around March Fed rate hike, that are broadly supporting the greenback, and softer sentiments around commodity space, are additionally weighing the Australian dollar as of late. Later this Wednesday, investors will be able to get some short-term trading opportunities from the US ADP jobs report, while USD price actions will continue to determine pair’s further direction.
The USD/JPY pair caught fresh bids this in early Europe, as US bulls finally took control over the pair. However, strong risk-off moods, following deficit in Chinese trade balance and upcoming crucial NFP report, that is due on Friday, are limiting pair’s further gains. Moreover, poor Japanese GDP data are additionally providing the pair with extra legs of support this Tuesday. Looking ahead, today only data from the US labor market will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, so RO-RO trend and sentiments around the US dollar will remain as key drivers for the pair until NY trading session.
The GBP/USD pair once again came under strong selling pressure in wake of fresh wave of demand for the US dollar, seen in early Europe. Moreover, the pound remains highly pressured as of late, refreshing today its seven-week lows at 1.2159, as The Upper House gave the right of final decision on Brexit negotiation to the UK Parliament, thereby intensifying risks of “hard Brexit”. Today the UK docket remains empty, while the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report will be able to grab traders’ attention in NA session.
The main events of the day:
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0531 R. 1.0619
USDJPY S. 113.52 R. 114.38
GBPUSD S. 1.2124 R. 1.2290
USDCHF S. 1.0072 R. 1.0200
AUDUSD S. 0.7541 R. 0.7655
NZDUSD S. 0.6907 R. 0.7041
USDCAD S. 1.3356 R. 1.3462
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