Fed Hike Aftermath Series: FOMC looks well divided for September meeting

14 September 2016, 08:58
Eko Rediantoro
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Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee, FOMC will be meeting next week on 20th and on 21st to decide upon their next move – whether or not to raise rates at that meeting or not. Looking from the commentaries, it seems that the members of the open market committee are quite divided in their opinion and the final voting could show divisions not seen in years. Let’s review how the voting members might vote in that meeting –

  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George is the most likely voter of an interest rate increase.
  • According to 26th August speech by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester could be another official likely to vote for a hike.
  • Daniel K Tarullo from board of Governors believes rate hike in 2016 possible but he would like to see more confirmatory inflationary pressure. So he could vote for no hike.
  • According to the speech last night, Lael Brainard from the board of Governors, she is a likely dove.
  • Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren worries on waiting too long and overheating of the economy, hence he could vote for a hike in September.
  • Jerome Powell, from the board of Governors voiced support for patience in 26th August speech. Hence a likely dove.
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that September is a good time to hike rates. Hence a hawk.
  • Stanley Fischer said that the next job report is the key. Since, it was weaker; he is likely to join the dovish camp.
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley could go for either of the stance.

As of now, we can see only four members who might vote for a hike in September and the number need to be six. It is unlikely that the Fed would go for a hike in this month. A lot would depend on Dudley and Yellen.


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