Further Uncertainty As Indexes Gained On Friday, Will Uptrend Resume?

Further Uncertainty As Indexes Gained On Friday, Will Uptrend Resume?

19 May 2016, 15:02
Roberto Jacobs
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Further Uncertainty As Indexes Gained On Friday, Will Uptrend Resume?

Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are still favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is still bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.3% and 0.6%, retracing some of the recent declines, as investors reacted to better-than-expected housing data announcement. Our speculative long positions have regained some of their recent losses. The S&P 500 index extends its medium-term consolidation, as it continues to trade below the level of resistance at 1,880-1,900. The nearest important support is at around 1,860, marked by recent local lows, and the next support is at 1,850. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, as we can see on the daily chart:


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Expectations before the opening of today’s session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.4%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.7-0.8% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is within its late April – early May consolidation, as it bounced off the psychological resistance of 1,900. The nearest important resistance is at 1,880-1,885, and the support is at 1,855-1,860, among others. There is no clear short-term direction, as the 15-minute chart shows:


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The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) is in an analogous short-term consolidation, as it bounced off the resistance at 3,600-3,620. On the other hand, the support is at around 3,540, marked by recent local lows:


chart3_20160519112902.jpg


Concluding, the broad stock market is still driven by uncertainty. However, it appears to be consolidate before moving upward. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative long position, with stop-loss at 1,850 (S&P 500 index).


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