Analystics technical AUD-USD 09/05/2016

Analystics technical AUD-USD 09/05/2016

8 May 2016, 11:33
dedekindra
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Analystics technical AUD-USD 09/05/2016


AUDUSD in this last week experienced a price movement pattern candlestick 
formation downside channel (Bearish). 
Where the movement started since Tuesday,
05/03/2016 weakened from 0.7665 level with a week intraday high at 0.7719 level
(on the same day 03/05) until closing New York,
on Friday (05/06/2016) pm at the 0.7366 level and 
low level week are in 0.7337 (Friday, 06/05/2016).
Range weekly the week yesterday by 382 pips 
(165 pips higher than its previous weekly range 25/04/16 
- 04/29/16 amounted to 217 pips).

Fundamentally, the Central Bank of Australia (RBA) for the first time this year 
to cut its benchmark interest rate to record the position
of the lowest interest rates in history. RBA reasoned loosening 
monetary policy will be able to continue the economic expansion 
in the country's steady growth. In addition RBA also blamed 
inflation and currency values ​​are high,
so with low interest rates will revive inflation.

RBA on Tuesday (3/09) RBA cut the rate by 25 basis 
points from the benchmark rate before,
so the RBA interest rate which came into force on May 4, 2016 of 1.75%. 
This decision is very surprising global market,
due to the previously estimated rate which will be released on 
that day will remain. As a result, the market immediately remove
the aussie dollar in their investment portfolios to respond to 
the RBA this surprising attitude.

Last week released Australian inflation rate during the first 
quarter in 2016 which experienced deflation the first time
in the quarterly period since the global financial crisis. 
Report from ABS also into consideration the RBA to cut interest rates.
Besides inflation, the high value of the Australian currency throughout 
the year to fear the policy makers of the country.
The reason is the sharp rise in the currency of the 
Australian dollar this year has created a threat in 
the process of economic growth amid a fragile transition 
from the expansion of their mines.

The decision to bring the RBA cut rates become 
the world's central bank numbers follow 
other major central banks outside the United States. 
Global central banks have responded to 
the slow growth of the world and the threat of deflation 
this year by cutting interest rates, 
adopting negative interest rates or add stimulus.

Technically, for the week ahead, 
weakening AUDUSD may still be continued based on weekly candlestick formation. 
Nevertheless, you still need to watch the 
intraday bullish correction might take place in the Daily timeframe. 
If next week's bullish breakout occurs at the level of 0.7479, the price will likely 
go back to the level of 0.7542 - 0.7601 - 0.7660. On the contrary, 
if the breakout of the bearish at 0.7335 level, 
then it is likely the price will resume its 
trend level area to the 0.7278 - 0.7224 - 0.7173.

Scenario

Recommendation Sell Limit / Sell Stop Entry Point 0.74455(
Sell Limit )/ 0.74247( Sell Stop ) Stop Loss 0.74666 ( Sell Limit ) / 0.74455 ( Sell Stop ) Take Profit 0.72280

Alternative Scenario

Recommendation Buy Limit / Buy Stop

Entry Point 0.73784( Buy Limit ) / 0.74714( Buy Stop )

Stop Loss 0.73574(Stop Loss Buy Limit) /

0.74503(Stop Loss Buy Stop)

Take Profit 0.73574 (Buy Limit) /

0.75673(Buy Stop)

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