After a wide upthrust bar, also marked as heavy supply, on last Wednesday, the Yen broke the support at 107.62 the day after. It broke with healthy volume, and the prices only stopped downtrending on a reverse upthrust, and later a churn, which are volume patterns that show demand.
On M15 the action can be seen more clearly, and the trading range in the last days is more evident on this lower timeframe. By today’s end of Tokyo session, at 5 am GMT, the market showed supply on very high volume, from the three timeframes – M15, M30 and H1. Right now the prices are trending lower, though on very thin volume due to Japan’s bank holiday on 3rd May. Thinly traded markets can be an opportunity for large players to make their movements however, since there is little to no resistance to any significant organized action.
It would be wise to be on the lookout for more demand/strength between 106.200 – 106.300. To the upside, the price 107.62 is the trigger for short positions, if the supply shown in H4 proves to be consistent. The fact that there are many announcements regarding unemployment on US will surely provide plenty of movements, and make the price reach these critical areas in USD/JPY.