US Jobs Data is the Highlight of the First Week of a New Month - BBH
US Jobs Data is the Highlight of the First Week of a New Month - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US jobs data is typically the
data highlight of the first week of a new month. It has lost its mojo.
Key Quotes
“This
is more because of the Federal Reserve's reaction function than the ADP
estimate that comes out a couple of days earlier. The Fed accepts that
the labor market continues to strengthen. The nearest real-time
reading of the labor market, the weekly jobless claims, has recently
falling to its lowest level since 1973, and continuing claims are at
16-year lows. It is clearly not sufficient for the FOMC to lift rates.
Another 200k increase in nonfarm payrolls is not a
game-changer. Even modest earnings growth is unlikely to do much to
help the dollar. The FOMC has already taken this on board. The issue
is not jobs or income; it is consumption and investment. We suspect
that the dollar risk is asymmetrical. It is more likely to be sold on
disappointment than to rally on a stronger report.”
