S&P 500: Tactical Rally From February At Risk But We Remain Secular Bulls - BofA Merrill

S&P 500: tactical rally from February at risk:

We highlighted 2044-2022 as key nearby S&P 500 support for April. There are a plethora of bearish divergences that could cap the rally from February, but a loss of 2022 is required to break the last higher low from 3/24 and suggest a deeper decline for the S&P 500. The double bottom breakout point near 1950 is support ahead of the 1820-1810 lows. The 2067-2075 area highs could provide initial resistance ahead of 2085 (double bottom count) and the 2015 highs of 2100-2135.

However, we remain secular bulls:

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Bigger picture we remain secular bulls on the S&P 500. April 2016 is the 3-year anniversary of the April 2013 secular bull market breakout in the S&P 500 above 1576 (see our secular bull market roadmap for more). We view this breakout as similar to the 1950 and 1980 breakouts, which triggered secular bull market rallies that lasted until 1965 and 2000, respectively. While we view the price pattern from May 2015 as a cyclical bear market or consolidation with a test of 1800 and even 1600-1775 not ruled out, it would be just part of an ongoing secular bull trend in our view.