Global Macro Overview for 06/04/2016 (Crude Oil)
The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday a decrease in the US oil inventories by the level of -4300K. This number was way below the market expectations of 2900K, which would be another increase from 2600K a week ago. Moreover, another oil news is scheduled for release today, Crude Oil Inventories at 02:30 GMT. Last time the released number was way above the market expectation that resulted in oil sell-off. This time the market is expecting a smaller rise in the stockpiles, up to the level of 2850K from 2229K a week ago. In conclusion, the never ending story in oil market regarding the supply glut will be still playing a vital role in the price movements as long as there are doubts about a potential oil-freeze deal between large OPEC members such as Russia and Iran.
Let's now take a look at the crude oil technical picture in the daily time frame. Bears managed to push the prices lower towards the 38%Fibo at the level of 36.00, just below the technical support at the level of 36.10. The 100 DMA provided the support as well, and currently the market is trying to trade higher, but the bulls move looks weak and only temporary. Bulls would have to break back above the 38.50 level to regain the control over this market.
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