What Drives AUD/USD's Prospects in Long Term (in H2'2016) and OTC Positions?
The rally extended last week as the AUD continued to push to fresh 2016 highs. Majority of the rally could be attributed to moves in the USD more broadly as commodity prices, and iron ore in particular, ended the week lower.
AUDUSD gains should be credited to FOMC's dovish tone in conjunction with the dollar's weakness driven in part by a more resilient looking global economy, but also because of the reaction of central banks to this improvement.
There are some key considerations during H2 of 2016 that will major have impact on monetary and fiscal consolidation in Australia.
The governor Stevens retires in Sept 2016 while a federal election must be held by Jan 2017.
There is limited evidence of a boom in non-resource exports or business investment, which would inspire more confidence that growth is actually rebalancing in response to lower rates/AUD.
Australia exposed more to China and so far no clues of recoveries in Chinese slowdown are traced out.
Reserve managers are no longer the AUD buyers they once were (and AUD stands to lose more if China liquidates a larger portion of its reserves).
Although, AUD/USD pushed higher to the 2016 highs, the pair is forecasted to remain at 0.74 by Q2'2016, at around 0.72 by Q3'16 and travel towards 0.67 by the end of H2 of 2016.
This is factored in FX OTC (FX Over The Counter) market for AUD/USD, as you can probably make out why the negative numbers in long term are displaying in risk reversal nutshell. They aren't vague or random figures but fairly hedged arrangements for the potential downside risks in this pair.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com