Research Team at BNZ, suggests that after a sharp fall earlier in the year, the NZD has settled into a trading range and they expect further weakness later in the year.
“The recent lift in risk appetite and stronger Yuan could well prove to be temporary factors. We look for NZ-global rate spreads to narrow further.
NZD/AUD has broken out of a six-month trading range to the downside. We can explain that based on fundamental economic factors, such as NZ commodity prices underperforming Australia’s, and a lower NZAustralia interest rate differential.
Current fair value on our model is AUD 0.86. The 2015 low of 0.8750 could well be threatened over coming months and we suspect over the rest of the year a lower trading range than that exhibited over the last six months will ensue.”
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