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Trader Daily Market Update

29 February 2016, 12:13

29 February 2016, Time of Writing: 09:00 am

Trader Daily Market Update

Major Calendar News

Time (GMT)	Name	Country	Vol.	Prev.	Cons.	Sentiment
07:00	German Retail Sales m/m	EUR	Med.	-0.2%	0.3%	Positive
09:30	Net Lending to Individuals m/m	GBP	Med.	4.4B	5.2B	Neutral
10:00	CPI Flash Estimate y/y	EUR	Med.	0.3%	0.0%	Negative
10:00	Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y	EUR	Med.	1.0%	0.9%	Negative
13:30	Current Account	CAD	Med.	-16.2B	-16.8B	Negative
13:30	RMPI m/m	CAD	Med.	-5.0%	-3.2%	Negative
14:45	Chicago PMI	USD	Med.	55.6	52.1	Neutral
15:00	Pending Home Sales m/m	USD	Med.	0.1%	0.6%	Negative
00:30 (01/03)	Building Approvals	AUD	High	9.2%	-2.9%	Neutral
01:00 (01/03)	Chinese Manufacturing PMI	AUD	High	49.4	49.4	Neutral
01:00 (01/03)	Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI	AUD	Med.	53.5	-	Neutral
01:45 (01/03)	Caixin Chinese Manufacturing PMI	AUD	High	48.4	48.4	Neutral
03:30 (01/03)	Cash Rate	AUD	High	2.0%	2.0%	Neutral
03:30 (01/03)	RBA Statement	AUD	High	-	-	Dovish

Vol.: Volatility; Prev.: Previous; Cons.: Consensus

Key Support/Resistance Levels

H4	R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
EURUSD	1.1126	1.1029	1.0970	1.0873	1.0813
GBPUSD	1.4108	1.3987	1.3920	1.3799	1.3732
USDJPY	114.94	114.47	113.50	112.93	112.08
AUDUSD	0.7303	0.7213	0.7165	0.7074	0.7026
USDCAD	1.3586	1.3548	1.3526	1.3489	1.3468

Latest News

Risk-off sentiment to start off the week saw Asian stock markets tumbling, with the Shanghai index falling by 4.2% and Shenzhen dropping by 5.9%, while safe-haven bids gained with USDJPY falling by 1% and gold gaining 0.8% at the time of writing. The New Zealand Dollar meanwhile opened with a gap down this morning versus the USD, as business confidence figures released over the weekend fell to their lowest level since September of last year, though the pair has retraced some of its losses and is currently trading around the 0.66 level.

The economic calendar starts off slow this week, with inflation data out of Europe which is forecasted to show the headline figure unchanged year-over-year, while core inflation having fallen to 0.9% vs last month’s 1% year-over-year. Next, the US is scheduled to release Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures. A slew of tier-one economic data will be released overnight during the Asian session including building approvals out of Australia, and both manufacturing and non-manufacturing data out of China. Last but not least, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest decision, which is widely expected to be held at 2%, while the rate statement is anticipated to be on the dovish side.

Daily Technical Analysis

	Summary:	Trend:	Momentum:	Daily Target:	Volatility (14D):
EURUSD	SELL	SELL	SELL	1.0875	95 Pips
GBPUSD	SELL	SELL	SELL	1.3800	150 Pips
USDJPY	NEUTRAL	SELL	BUY	112.15	134 Pips
AUDUSD	SELL	SIDEWAYS	SELL	0.7080	88 Pips
USDCAD	SELL	SELL	SELL	1.3485	136 Pips

Daily Technical Analysis is conducted using proprietary technology based on advanced methods of time-series analysis and custom build technical indicators. Detailed quantitative analysis of the market state on different timeframes let us accurately evaluate current Trend and Momentum. Going further we deduce the daily target from the multiple factors such as long and short term momentum, different volatility measures, mode of market behaviour and other characteristics. For a ranged market we will show a range instead of a single number.

Daily Forecasts

	Spot Price*	Last Update	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month
EURUSD	1.0933	29/02/2016	1.0970	1.09	1.08
GBPUSD	1.3875	29/02/2016	1.3800	1.39	1.40
USDJPY	113.11	29/02/2016	112.10	113	114
AUDUSD	0.7138	29/02/2016	0.7075	0.70	0.69
USDCAD	1.3526	29/02/2016	1.3485	1.36	1.36